Wxoutlooksblog
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Again, temperatures are going to warm for the July 2nd-5th time-frame. I think it will be just be a question of how much of the rain and associated clouds with all these disturbances moving across the country affects us as to whether or not we can get into the upper 80s to lower 90s during this time frame. If we can dry out for a couple of days, maybe the 4th/5th, we could have a shot at 90. If clouds and rain persists, we will not have a shot at 90...maybe low-mid 80s. WX/PT
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I think the next 90+ potential comes during the July 2nd-5th time-frame but that doesn't mean we'll definitely get there. But I do think we have a shot at upper 80s to lower 90s over that time. Initially it looks as though the winds might again be too southerly so honing in on and hoping for July 4th, 5th. WX/PT
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I tend to agree with a somewhat bullish forecast for showers and storms over most of the NYC Metro this weekend. With dew points slowly rising if the sun breaks out for just a little with the lift moving in the atmosphere should destabilize and showers and storms should pop. I think over time these shower and storms will affect the entire region but not necessarily inland areas at the same time as coastal areas. Also, I'm beginning to get a feeling we may actually see a day or two of heat interrupt this gloomy pattern sometime on or just after the July 4th weekend. WX/PT
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If it were possible I'd be in 200% agreement. WX/PT
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There are so many things now going against a hot summer here. Firstly the models almost all agree on varying depth of an upper low in the northwest Atlantic. One after another we see disturbances moving in off of the Pacific, the jet stream about 400-500 south of where it normally is during the summer months. And as for the ridge out west, it really looks as though it's mostly going to stay there. Now to the south of us, it's a different story as from time to time pieces of the ridge break off and move east but they are mostly suppressed south of the NYC Metro with the upper low over the northwest Atlantic dominating NYC points north and east for the majority of the time, and if not temporary HP onshore winds and marine layers. Meanwhile, fronts look as though they'll get stuck right over us bringing at times above normal cloudcover, showers and storms and sometimes rain. I am thinking 15 or fewer 90+ days at the Park and fewer than 10 wouldn't shock me. Enjoy! WX/PT
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Look for that to continue. WX/PT
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I think there is still uncertainty beyond three or four days whether we get a good Bermuda HP to build or one with an upper low denting the western side of it. The models go back and forth this morning's runs so far more along the stronger HP again with perhaps at least a couple of 90+ days. But I'm not totally convinced yet. WX/PT
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If the Bermuda HP that builds is too strong or displaced further north the heat will be in Burlington Montreal, Albany, and Bangor but not here. It's another one of three possible outcomes. WX/PT
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If temperatures warm dramatically once the rain ends don't be surprised to see some showers and storms pop. But we'll see if there is too much cloudcover or if it takes too long to get out from underneath what's over us. WX/PT
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The Euro drew up these kinds of solutions for a week only to drop them in favor of a stronger Bermuda HP for one and a half days now back to its original thinking. You think it flips back to a strong Bermuda HP? Maybe but I doubt it. WX/PT
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European model back to wetter less warm scenario now with the upper lows over the southeast and southeasterly winds here. It goes back and forth. Followed by a mid Atlantic soaker. WX/PT
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Getting some good rain now here. A few rumbles in the distance. WX/PT
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Most of the models now seeming to adjusting to a considerably warmer look for the last 8 days of June. We'll see if they don't flip back to the extremely wet pattern but the 00Z models tonight so far showing an outside shot at 90 on at least a couple of days in the last 8 days of of the month. The coastal storms and inside runners of only a couple of days back seem to have pretty much vanished on the most recent maps. WX/PT
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I'm sandwiched for lunchtime between that one and the one to my e. I think the Astoria storm eventually has eyes at me and eventually will be a hail producer. WX/PT
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I had that a half hour earlier now here I go again. WX/PT
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Meanwhile here's what was supposed to be one of the 2-3 hot days at the end of June today on the GFS. WX/PT
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We could talk about if El Nino wasn't setting up but I think things would be very different right now if that wasn't happening. Entering into El Nino will not be good if you like a long hot summer here. Once the El Nino is established or weakening could also be a very different story. WX/PT
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Not in my memory. I think it can work both ways. A few examples of extremely hot summers followed by great winters correct me if I'm wrong---1966, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010....just to name a few. But of course hot summer of 1983 was followed by a not so great winter of 83-84. So I think it works both ways and that it's not a great correlation. Another hot summer 1991 was followed by a not very good winter 91-92. WX/PT
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I'm again not believing the hype for heat at the end of this month. We keep seeing interludes where it looks real on the models only to rapidly disappear into onshore southeasterly or easterly winds marine layers galore yes higher humidity but probably also periods of rain. The heights come up some but with the developing El Nino jet stream energy and storms passing over us or even to our south, jet stream about 750 miles further south than normal, I say a cooler wetter than average summer is on the way. Now that doesn't mean there won't be the isolated days of heat in between the rain and fog makers. Maybe even a rare two days in the row at times. But I see this summer ending up with a grand total of 5-15 90+ days at Central Park. WX/PT
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Though .35-.55" rainfall tonight was not a very big deal most of the models suggest above normal rainfall for the next ten days. We should see more rain on Wednesday. WX/PT
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Anything is big after 2022-23. I'm guessing (first guess) we'll get 10-20" of snow next winter. WX/PT
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Heights building but no heatwave with an easterly wind. WX/PT
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What we're looking at here is temperatures gradually warming up over time but a pattern closer to winter 1960-61 than any pattern we've ever seen during a summer. Maybe a Donna look-alike will come up the coast. WX/PT
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Also back to my cooler summer outlook. When a piece of the heat ridge breaks off unfortunately this is where the high pressure will often end up. This is a cool outcome with surface winds off of the relatively cool ocean waters. WX/PT
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Thank you Brian. The best of the ridge remains west of us with only a piece breaking off and moving eastward once in a while. I would be surprised if July averages out much if at all above normal in NYC. WX/PT
