Sydney Claridge

I agree. The public at large needs straightforward messaging that helps them best understand what the hazard(s) are. The government does not (and should not) expect everyone to understand the technical terminology used in severe weather warnings, watches, or advisories. I'm a weather hobbyist who understands some of this terminology, but my formal college education is in the social sciences. So much focus is on the difference between a watch (be prepared for the hazard) and a warning (take appropriate action). My understanding is that advisories refer to hazards that are below "severe" criteria (eg. winter, thunderstorm, flood, etc.). If there is a more effective way to communicate that to the public, then that is what should be done.

On the Day 3 outlook, SPC removed all mention of severe thunderstorm potential for Sunday. Seems like those uncertainties might have won out.

Aside from a few warnings here and there, this was a complete bust. There were no severe weather reports at all per SPC (at the time of this post), quite surprising for a day that started out with an Enhanced risk (and a 10% tornado contour), albeit this was later downgraded.

Spring 2020 was interesting, with a particularly intense period in April, but tornadic activity dropped off pretty quickly after that, with a quiet autumn to boot. I'm going to assume that 2021 could be an intense season, with a La Niña currently in place. I know that a transitioning La Niña favors an uptick in tornadic activity in the Southern Plains (Texas-Oklahoma), but that Dixie Alley and the Ohio Valley often see increased activity in cases of a resurgent La Niña (see "US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability" by Lee et al.). Forecast precipitation anomalies seem to show increased precipitation in the Ohio Valley in particular. I'm going to place my bets on an active 2021 season for Dixie Alley and the Ohio Valley.

There’s quite the temperature divide across the Houston metro this morning, with 50s in the far west suburbs (Katy), with 40s not too much further west, but generally upper 60s over the rest of the metro. Definitely cannot rule out severe storms in the Houston area until the front passes through (which it should do in the next few hours as the storm system moves NE). The storm coming ashore at Surfside Beach looks slightly isolated and now has a severe thunderstorm warning with “tornado possible” wording indicated.

We actually had some favorable values (EHI, SigTor, VTP) earlier that showed up on the SPC Mesoanalysis between DFW and the Red River. Some of those values were pretty high (there were VTPs exceeding 9, for instance) before the storms came through, so I’m not surprised at all that there were a few tornado-warned storms.

No wonder why COVID has preyed on this country so much. None of our politicians seem to have the chutzpah to rein in the junk food industry, and the false narrative of "personal choice" (look up "food deserts") continues to be an issue. As much as I hate to say it, our country was primed for a pandemic that would come in, spread, and take advantage of the large number of people who are overweight or obese. Our healthcare system was apparently designed to deal with acute illnesses, and fails miserably at the treatment and prevention of certain chronic illnesses ("pre-existing conditions") that can contribute to severe cases of COVID. Preventing things like this in the future might require a full-on "War on Obesity," and politicians (and others) will have to make many hard decisions (and challenge the powerful junk-food lobby) should they follow this path.

Not even a 2% tornado risk today but yet we are currently seeing tornado warnings north of Columbus, OH. This does include Franklin County, generally the northeastern part around New Albany. It surprised me when I noticed said warnings.

NBC4 Washington on-air met thinks a tornado warning may be coming in for DC soon, hook over NW DC. I did notice an outflow boundary on radar earlier west of Arlington/south of McLean along I-66, however.

Oh no, that doesn’t look good...

That line up by Saint Cloud just lit up with 4 tornado warnings. Looks like another couplet is forming on a tornado-Warner supercell (ahead of the line) just north of Brownton, MN as well. The Brownton storm might try to make a run at the Twin Cities metro if it holds together.

I'm starting to wonder about those storms west of the Twin Cities. Not seeing anything too strong with rotation at this time, but they are all isolated storms in a favorable environment. The severe-warned storm south of Buffalo Lake may be one to watch. There also appears to be a couple of couplets near West Union (along I-94), but these look to be on the frontal boundary itself.

I've noticed that SPC has included hatching on 15% wind risks, starting earlier this year, when there is potential for a major damaging wind event but there is a degree of uncertainty as to whether said threat will actually materialize (such as capping, etc.).

We have a tornado watch in North Dakota for today. Meanwhile, across the Canadian border in Manitoba it looks like there is a storm with significant rotation:

Might that be rotation trying to form northeast of Rochelle?

There is also a severe-warned storm behind this one (Marion, OH area). Would not be surprised if that one could clip the northeastern portions of the Columbus area only if that storm takes a right-turn. Ingredients for tornadoes are much better in northern Illinois per SPC mesoanalysis. Watch those storms west of Rochelle and Rockford as they move east, could be a concern as they approach Chicagoland.

0-3km EHI is as high as 10 along the OR/WA border. I have never seen values that high in the Pacific Northwest before, but keep in mind that LCL heights are very high. Storm south of (and moving towards) Bend, OR has lower LCL heights.

Even though the one to the south is the tornado producer, that storm to the north of Streator (near Ottawa) still bears watching as it is moving straight for the Chicago metro area.

Aside from the risk for hail, tornadoes, and wind, I am getting very concerned about flooding potential near and west of Bowie, TX. These storms have stalled over this area for quite some time, with heavy precipitation, and they may only now be starting to increase their forward motion. There are also other storms behind this complex as well. The big question is whether this complex will take a right turn and impact the northern areas of the Metroplex.

I wonder if that is an MCV associated with that activity near Bowie, TX? Storm motions seem to be rotating around a point near Bowie.

Storm over Wichita Falls looks to be developing rotation. It looks as if that storm has caught up to the outflow boundary ahead of it and is latching onto that OFB.

I'm starting to wonder if SPC overestimated the effects of the outflow boundary with respect to their re-positioning of the ENH risk earlier. The significant hail is currently materializing north of the ENH risk and the hatching, but that storm SW of Bellevue, TX still bears watching, especially if it becomes a right-mover. That storm has just taken on supercellular characteristics (including a hook), so it may take a right turn pretty soon. EDIT: couplet SW of Bellevue:

Tornado warning also issued for that storm just northwest of Wichita Falls. Radar indicated at this time. EDIT: confirmed tornado west of Burkburnett according to livestream from Channel 6 in Wichita Falls.

Looks like there is a major hail storm ongoing northwest of Wichita Falls now, it is warned for up to 3-inch hail. There may be some additional attempts at convective initation in the Graham/Jacksboro area per radar and satellite imagery; some of the ingredients there seem better for severe weather (supercell composite, SigTor, EHI, etc.), compared with southern OK, although that Red River storm is in a perfect position to produce large hail.

Attempts at convective initiation around Graham and Jacksboro seem to be struggling at this moment. Some light radar returns are present there, although nothing significant has formed yet.