Torchageddon

My overnight low is forecast to be 72 with a humidex of 80...that's something since this weekend was freezing cold and had temps barely above 8ºC or the mid 40s. Its doing the exact opposite of what is typical of a day-night temp change - as morning comes it'll get colder and then be coldest during the afternoon tomorrow. Early this afternoon I had a heavy downpour that lasted 20-30 minutes and dark skies (overcast) beforehand. TWN had us 2 days prior for today at partly sunny with 20ºC high...

Some of the best news I've come across this month! Interestingly I had the exact same phrase before I read Michael's "good news to start the day!" line.

Raydar.ca has now been down for 3 weeks. I have no source for quality radar here now. Its either a pay-for tool or a Interactive java/flash radar that is worth anything.

Good breakdown of this trend, I enjoyed it. Its the new normal as its happening here as well and we have far less development in rural ON than ORD.

Today was amazing, top shelf for sure. The most pleasant day of this month. For whatever reason it smelled really good outside and a few noticed that. Maybe its because we're getting to that time of the year where heat and heatwaves produce incredible aromas outdoors. I'm looking forward to those hot days later on . This last weekend was absolutely garbage, far too chilly and dank. Ruins the mood plus its uncomfortable. Despite being drenched in sweat at times during the hot parts of summer I wish for that over last Saturday's offerings. I then look at PHX's 40-41ºC every day this week with full sun and wish it were so...to say I admire that climate would be a huge understatement.

Florence's SSD floater page loaded a day old image for AVN when I refreshed it a few minutes ago. Works now.

For some reason I found this to be funny. I didn't once think that Florence was going to make landfall as a CAT4/5 however I agreed with the severity outlined from the water impact it will have. The only time I'll ever believe that a CAT4+ is going to make landfall on the US mainland is if its literally 2-3 hours away from landfall at said intensity. How it stalls will determine if its the costliest hurricane in SE history.

Main K-W weather station got to 32.3ºC today which broke the old record by 0.1ºC! You can really feel the heat built up this evening, torrid. All that potential energy the atmosphere had was wasted yesterday evening with just some rain showers and nothing else as the cold front came through. I expected no less. I'm sitting at a staggeringly low 3 thunderstorms total so far this year.

With a few minutes left this August and essentially the core of summer, I'd give it a pretty good grade. Nice and hot, but more clouds and cloudy days than the first part of summer here. The no thunderstorm streak was broken on midnight of the 29th with two storms in 3 hours.

That was hard to read through, cringing the whole way and then what sealed it was the ever annoying "We have dodged a huge, huge bullet" line...ugh!! That utterly stupid cliche triggers me each time. I read your post here days ago explaining what would happen to Lane and what did transpire. A senior military meteorologist said this? Doubtful...

I would've never believed it had someone set this scenario up for me, can't make this up! I do.

That was my reaction to finding raydar.ca still isn't working after 3 days. I need that thing . TWN once again pulled a bust out with their hyping of severe weather today and despite the morning showers kept the absurd idea alive that powerful storms with an isolated tornado was possible: Link: https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/southern-ontario-fall-like-soaking-rain-storm-ahead-late-august-look-ahead/109648/ This is getting ridiculous and users are getting fed up with TWN. Obviously I didn't think for a second that I would have a thunderstorm IMBY but the rains I "bought". Turns out I received far less than forecast. I'm still waiting for this big pattern change they kept yapping about endlessly last month and then again sometime early this month. Oops another heatwave instead!

I'm really loving that signal, a good heatwave starting on the weekend. Last night I felt ever so slightly cool so here's to some fun heat. I'm already looking forward to some Autumn heatwaves in late September and October...the smell in the air during those is one of the best things ever. Today is the ninth anniversary of Ontario's main and most significant tornado outbreak of the 2000s. It was the highest daily tornado count on record for my province. 1 death in Durham Ontario and hours after the twister I visited the damage site which was the first time I've seen intense tornado destruction. To say the whole event was surreal is an understatement.

The streak is still going, a storm basically formed just to my south/east and I heard a few dozen quality rumbles with dark skies. Its the 2nd time in 48 hours we had an extremely close cell that formed less than 1 km away from MBY. Shield was up. Just outside of town it was wet and progressively moreso. The temperature gradient was incredible, 25ºC where I was and just a few km east it was 17ºC at one spot!! As you were driving you could see the thermostat increase like the odometer would . Once in the mid 20s I could feel the heat instantly and got rather warm in a hurry. That brings me to my next observation: The forecast or news story this weekend was for the humidity to break and for the weekend to be very nice and dry. This was from TWN. Well Friday certainly was and in rare fashion it was 29ºC dead on without a humidex. Come today the humidity came right back and feels hot. The indices are 6ºC higher than the air temperature and golly gee whiz TWN busted for the thousandth time. Tomorrow's forecast is the same. Somehow TWN even managed to get something that close and that broad incorrect!! The story that had that dead wrong headline is now "mysteriously" gone like that "pattern change" that they pimped for over half of July that obviously never happened except increased moisture. On that note, this is a great summer for sunshine and I'm really benefiting from it...hate those cloudy days! Toronto's big disasters always occur in August. Their costliest supercells and flooding have happened during this month. I don't want to give ole Joe anymore attention but I still remember his prediction for summer 2012: cold. Hey Joe, how is that cold summer coming along? - July 28, 2012.

It was a historic Canadian tornado, one of two violent tornadoes this decade in my country. It might be the only EF4+ to be official for the 2010s so far. It had good velocity at the base and was up there for best looking in recent times. If I'd have seen that I'd be set. In one of the videos that mesocyclone or structure around the twister was jaw-dropping. I've never seen anything like it. Manitoba is getting all the gems here. I remember 2015's insanity.

For the last several weeks there have been more days than not with storm chances here in southern Ontario. I get a kick out of seeing the forecast knowing nothing like a storm will hit me. I've heard maybe a rumble here and there but even that I'd say less than 5 rumbles for all of 2018 so far...not joking! One of the most impressive weather streaks is still ongoing of no thunderstorms to date IMBY for 2018!!! August 3!! A few weeks ago that was comedy, now its a rule of thumb! I've been watching for months now the storms just skirt or fizzle out around me every.single.time.... Today there was a much higher chance for local storms and there were some very slow moving cells (lots of lightning) north slowly inching down over the afternoon and then more formation closer started bringing darker skies and threatening weather. Probably within walking distance rain was falling but no rain, one rumble, and the closest lightning was just out of range by a mile or two...the shield was up. I was really starting to wonder if my bubble was ready to burst; it didn't.

Thanks. The end of May that year was insane per data.

I looked into this and it appears May and June (and so far this July) have been a nightmare for good weather lovers in Iceland. 2015 was one of the worst in Reykjavik, 2016 one of the hottest summers. What's really happening is they are getting stupid amounts of rain, wind, and cloudiness nonstop with below average temperatures since the start of May. I was amazed when looking at their 7-day and current obs, no sun just rain everyday and sitting around 10ºC . I'll say this, if I was living there I would move heaven and earth to get the hell out of there for this pattern and be in the exact opposite climate: southern AZ (of course!). Its absolutely beautiful there (Iceland) and near the top of my countries to visit "list" however I can't imagine how crazy I'd become with a pattern that atrocious! They are going through their 2014 . On the flip side here in ON this pattern has been fantastic: ultra dry, sunny, hardly any clouds or rain (nearly none!) and best of all warm . The 7 days coming up look superb, no clouds or rain really. Both today and tomorrow are 32ºC. Here is a NYTimes article in plaintext (good for low bandwidth) about the crappy weather in Iceland.

I still haven't had a single thunderstorm YTD IMBY for 2018. Statistically this is a near impossible streak even for my storm-barren region. I normally would have 8 storms by now. Was a switch flipped off somewhere? Did you stumble on anything from 1911 or looked into that summer? I continue to see 1911 pop up and I'm curious about its geographical reach regarding heatwaves.

These maps are what I dream of when I have heatwaves on my mind . Those runs I saved. I wouldn't mind frolicking in CO and AZ when that 600 dm pops nearby. Last nights GFS 00z run (Hr 234) had a 603 dm line over CO, I haven't seen that before!

Did you find the date from summer 2003 on your computer?

I've been checking this daily, I'm not sure if I buy into it being anything to consider when it comes to Plains activity. The red contours the other Friday were super impressive looking on the mouseover square for then but nothing happened in that spot. That was 1-5 days before. Its experimental (the dashboard) and I'm trying to find a pattern.

^^ Great story, I love those types of accounts. If you remember the temperature being 85F the next day, couldn't you go look at the nearest station database and find all the days where it reached that and then check either the SPC or radar archive for the storm your looking for? I wish I had more storm events where I was in a car looking at lightning and cloud building like that but I was extremely fortunate to happen to be in a car during the early part of the May 12, 2000 event. Aside from it being the best storm, another reason I loved that was it was a Friday evening...can't ask for much more. Looking further into it from that radar data map (I can extract so much information now from that) the monster cell that brought me the worst of that historic thunderstorm was formed way way back in get this...Nashua Iowa!! I was blown away! The very first dbz returns started just north of Nashua at 8:45 am EDT and just exploded racing up towards La Crosse Wisconsin and then heading east and reaching my backyard at 7:50 pm EDT. It wasn't just how long it lasted or how far it traveled, but the intensity it maintained during the vast majority of its time. It maxes out the reflectivity in certain time snapshots I checked. When it was in the eastern part of WI it was flooring it. Had a bow at some point(s) so acted like a derecho. You can really see it start at 2:25 pm over western MI. I'm not sure I would call it a sup because it doesn't look like one but damn that is one of the most badass storm cells ever. The identifiable part of it lasted 1000 km total and morphed just west of Toronto. Never seen a MCS hold together like that and slam into me so it makes sense that I have nothing to compare that with (radar wise) since it was the top storm. The final remnant of the congealed MCS fizzled out off the Nantucket MA coast at 9:30 am the next day. At some point I can create radar loops and forward speed analysis on the 650 mile cell and the overall complex. I should post some images with some highlights of what insane stuff was ongoing that day. I finally have nearly the full radar story now.

I'm getting the opposite of hopefulness from looking at ERTAF: "A continued northward shift in the NPJ leads us to believe the peak of annual US tornado frequency in the Great Plains (weeks 2 and 3) will be gravely below average."

The 2nd worst thunderstorm I've experienced was during the summer of 2003. It was just as the sun had set and had prolific lightning and high winds. I would like to figure out the date of that one so anyone from southern Ontario/eastern MI who remembers some good ones from that June-August give your take. I don't know how to search for t-storm events by region or where to start. These archived radar images seem to come from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.