Torchageddon

It wasn't that much of a nail-biter after all, the UW Waterloo weather station only reached 18.6C . May 15th here we come! https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/14-day-weather-trend/ontario/waterloo?from7day=1 Never would've imagined this.

I hope both UW and YYZ don't reach 20C tomorrow, just for the lulz. Its already asinine that this is the 3rd year in a row that UW didn't get their 20 til May but if it goes past the 10th then we're looking at many decades since its been that late. Today was suppose to be one of two only good days this first half May, its dark and raining . I haven't heard thunder since early March and that was the only time so far in 2020.

I first saw it in 2015, I was confused too. I like how near the start of it the wife has a bigger reaction to the fact they were under a tornado warning than the actual wedge right in front of them.

I haven't been checking the long range much but the 500 mb pattern didn't look much different from the stuff I was seeing in Jan. I still am solid on 2014 being the worst year in modern times for all aspects. If it weren't for some sunny weather early this month than this April would've been neck and neck with June 2015 for worst weather month. I don't feel bad for complaining about this because with rona this is the worst case senario for people's well-being in this region. I was pissed as soon as my fears were realized that the mental health crisis was going to be exaserbated with this ****. Some ON posters may know of the UW Waterloo weather station contest to predict when we reach 20C for the first time annually. I can't believe this, but its nearly certain that this will be the 3rd year in a row where it will be in May! Before 2018 it was decades (70s?) since the first reading of 20 happened in May. With 108 years of data there were never 3 Mays in a row. I'm sitting at -1C with chill at -8C. A LES shower gave some whispy snow snakes on the road not long ago.

With how the climate has been behaving in recent years near the Lakes and what is taking place now it sealed it for me that my goal is now to simply leave, meteorology and weather is my main passion so to save it. Walking outside in mid-April feeling like your face is numb and in pain, yeah. Today's high is 0ºC with a wind chill of -9ºC for most of the day. That would be in the all-timers for the worst late April day since it will be overcast with flurries. I'm trying to remember an April that was this terrible. I saw on the 00z Euro the same nightmare and on the 240 hr frame (May 1) I smiled in horror.

I noticed that cell when first coming on looking at radar, it didn't have a severe warning on it but now TW?

Why does April always have to be doo-doo? The last 3 days have been miserable. Locally in SON, there were only 2 warm Aprils last decade!!

I had my +sn event around 9 this morning. It was one of the heaviest snowfalls by rate (maybe 1.5 in per hour) I've seen for April. Got around .5 in on the ground. 1/4 mile visiblity during peak. It looked like a winter wonderland out there .

The threat of damaging winds for Mon across nearly all of southern ON started to be communicated as early as Thursday afternoon. Most substainal weather here so far this year probably. Regarding the severe threat in the south for Sunday, I'll believe a major tornado outbreak when we see one. IMO the last single day was April 28 2014. Large geographic area of high potential is a big indicator for how likely we'll see one for the books and Sun has that. Even with my default non-scientific feeling always leaning on bust due to persistence, I think 1 or 2 strong tornadoes will occur. I wouldn't want to be down there in Dixie at a time like this, for multiple reasons but if so I'd be looking at my tornado plan and making sure I have a safe spot ready. Dixie is trending more as the main region for tornado alley.

Today was one of the worst March days. Dank garbage. True, and I'm a little further north in latitude than there with a even more appalling cloud cover regime. Going to fight to get the F outta here long-term.

No rumbles at all, got to 15C by 5 am which actually over-performed and then tanked much faster than forecast and by 10 am it was 6C here in southern Bruce county and nearly 16C in Waterloo ON. Wind gusts massively under-performed per usual.

Today's forecast high massively underperformed once again, got to 10C instead of 14C and full overcast. Here I thought a taste of Spring on the first Spring day was on tap . I'll be listening for the overnight t-storms for sure, likely two rumbles and that''ll be it til mid-April .

Yesterday massively over-performed here, got to 14ºC instead of 9ºC. Today was just a few days ago suppose to be 1 and now its 8. Toronto got to 17.

I notice after a huge severe weather event or something insane tornado wise there is often no post mortem and things carry on as if nothing happened. If a large severe weather day ended up doing absolutely nothing at all no one will post about how and why it failed but rather there simply won't be any posts and no analysis.

Aside from the cliche, it wouldn't be 185 mph by the time it got to Florida because its forward speed would slow enough to weaken him due to upwelling. Probably would be a category 3 similar to Hurricane Frances' weakening.

I've been checking this daily, I'm not sure if I buy into it being anything to consider when it comes to Plains activity. The red contours the other Friday were super impressive looking on the mouseover square for then but nothing happened in that spot. That was 1-5 days before. Its experimental (the dashboard) and I'm trying to find a pattern.

I'm getting the opposite of hopefulness from looking at ERTAF: "A continued northward shift in the NPJ leads us to believe the peak of annual US tornado frequency in the Great Plains (weeks 2 and 3) will be gravely below average."

You missed the most wretched year (May tornadoes) of all: 2017. Last year was truly appalling from an interest standpoint. All those High Risks and nothing memorable - this is my opinion alone but when I think 2017 for tornadoes the only tornado that comes to mind is the Canton TX one. With the 80s being what they were, what large scale configuration led to it? I think the quality severe was probably up north in the GLs because all sorts of stories originate from the mid-late 80s in ON.

I really don't want to hear any hints of death ridge when it comes to the Plains in late May (Only over the GL ). I really need to take the advice of cutting back how much I look at long range data, certainly not good to drive myself crazy. I'm going to look back to see what the mood was like at this time for May 2013 and 2016.

To clarify, what time frame(s) for the deterministic NWP? Just the next 10 days or is that further long range? Mostly interested in the last 10 days of this month.

Did the 00z euro just trash that goodness it showed 2 runs ago?

I think I came across something on eclipsewise.com that does that. I don't know what kind because I quickly went through some sites yesterday.

Oh boy. Another thing is I noticed a lot of folks on ABC's coverage at least not always using their solar glasses to look at the partial eclipse...even the reporters and anchors (one woman was pulled off camera!). I've been reading that even those with the solar viewers in hand and on head got caught with their pants down for a few seconds. They would either not realize it or the desire over-rode their sense. I saw the shadow sweep across the country on GOES-16 satellite using satsquatch.com/map/ and it was pretty neat. Even southern Ontario got dark.

I was at 71.2% and I noticed a change like a cooler breeze and it got dimmer. Its getting to normal brightness now. My solar eclipse glasses worked perfect and saw my first partial. That was pretty cool and makes me want totality even more now! Chile 2019! I saw what Carbondale had...dang! Surprises in a few spots like Charleston SC. Now we see if there is a mass gridlock anywhere.

After coming to the realization I couldn't make it for the 2017 solar eclipse I started thinking about Chile in 2019...not waiting 7 years on a likely cloudy April day. I have no idea how an eclipse trip like Chile would be.