Santa Claus

i'm guessing 98L is Wilfred and 99L becomes Subtropical Storm Alpha. according to FSU phase space diagrams the GFS likes 99L for some tropical development and gets it down to around 990 mb before it swings towards Portugal.

super smoky. it was gone before it dipped below the horizon. i'm thinking the better shots will be the sunrises, i guess there's usually less particulates in the air in the morning than the afternoon due to diurnal heating and churned up wind currents. idk though.

everyone interested should be on sunset watch tonight, with the smoke in the air it could be a good one. unfortunately there doesn't look to be much in the way of cloud cover, but i'm guessing there will be a big, bright reddish sun. maybe you'll have a chance to peak a sunspot if they're active.

oh what a day. partly cloudy, 72/54, nice breeze.

i haven't been paying any attention to wildfire season, and then i look up and california is burning down i feel like the world is ending, i'm exhausted by 2020. my mental health seriously eroded this year. i need to admit that to someone. burnt out and exhausted on every front. i cannot process anymore news. and the news will continue to get worse, much worse.

socked in with clouds in CNJ. weather.gov also has some kind of radar issue.

bust. :]

i really doubt we're done with the tropics, regardless of this model. the atmosphere is just dumping spin-ups one after the other. luckily Laura was an outlier and most of them are trash.

chances look good that this Saturday will be the third pristine Saturday in a row.

full disclosure: i was about to say "i don't see what you're seeing, i see the two TS and a lemon." before saying something stupid i decided to click around and discovered there's a 5 day NHC forecast graphical. been following weather my entire life, had literally no idea. don't think i ever saw it posted here. alright now that we all agree i'm not mentally competent to stand trial, i have a question. does the NHC have any kind of follow-up post-season analysis of storm intensity predictions? probably not? i ask because it seems like storms have historically over-performed, but i have no data, just a WAG from hanging around here too much. not looking to impinge the good work of the folks at the NHC, literally just curious. i recognize the amazing strides in weather prediction made in the last 20 years and i'm glad we have accurate tropical forecasting at all, especially with the added wild card of global warming.

that 3K NAM seemed to do really well but like you said the radar had more bark than bite.

the northern line out by Lancaster looks pretty spicy and i wouldn't be surprised to see the watch extended northward or for a SVR watch to go up for us.

us = the CNJ people i'm talking to

NAM actually hammers us FWIW

Same folks keep winning over and over again. I hope us mopes in CNJ at least get some rain out of this one.

if nothing else, the hyperactivity of this tropical season looks like it will continue, and we need to be aware of the steering pattern forecasts. forget the 240hr pressure maps from the Kazakhstan model or w/e. the lows we've seen so far are very aggressive in taking what they can get and running with it, and Africa is going to be pumping waves for a few months. buckle up and wear a helmet you nerds.

i have scratchcards to sell you

for all the potential this week was enormously disappointing.

well these squall lines look like nice consolation prizes if Middlesex County doesn't get a 7-10 split. and i imagine there's a real nice air change behind them, so if nothing else i just want this swamp air to clear out.

Sunday looks gorgeous, with strong cold air advection behind the post-tropical redevelopment of Laura. 80 degree high, 20 mph NW wind, should be relatively dry. Good day for a hike but maybe a bit muddy out there.

don't know what glass you're using but if you find yourself in the market for a nice macro lens, check out the 100mm Tokina--stupid sharp, great mechanics, built like a tank, and cheap. my absolute favorite lens.

you guys are calling this a little early IMO. in any case i'm going to get my run in now in case it does rain, l8r sk8ers.

above all else i am trying not to die

air conditioners or air handlers there's a difference ok

god Piotrowski's such a ham GUYS I INTENTIONALLY DROVE INTO A HURRICANE AND WE GOT WINDS THE 140 MPH TROPICAL CYCLONE UNBELIEVABLY TOOK OUT THE POWER I AM GETTING MY HELMET ON ah well god bless him, i can drink and shitpost and watch some lunatic try to surface the gulf of mexico in an SUV over the internet we don't have the flying cars but the future ain't all bad