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Santa Claus

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Everything posted by Santa Claus

  1. That slug of moisture which I assume is the former eyewall is going to be a real problem for flash flooding in WCNJ.
  2. Radar's finally filling in towards us at least. The axis of heavy rains looks a good 50 miles west of where it was predicted a few days ago.
  3. Probably not a great day for friends, family, and neighbors around here tomorrow. Bad trends.
  4. lol guys I made a meme and i am sorry it's so bad
  5. He's not a troll though and I'm not a weenie, I'm trying to learn and contribute... was thinking it looked a fair bit stronger and more organized. I'll call a spade a spade, I said it was looking dishevled yesterday. I hate being wrong here, there's so many good meteorologists and it's so easy for an amateur like myself to make themselves look stupid. So if I said something stupid I want to learn from it. That's all.
  6. I'm just seriously tripped out by the idea I'm too stupid to find a naked swirl on GOES EAST. I mean people joke about being triggered but I just spent 10 minutes looking at screens trying to find what he's talking about, and because I can't find it I feel even dumber.
  7. Can you take a picture of something to show me? I swear I am looking at GOES EAST shots thinking this thing looks decent and your post is throwing me for a loop.
  8. The outflow looks nice and sharp especially to the northeast. It's a small storm with a nice compact CDO, there's some very robust convection happening. It looks pretty organized right now. I think this is a decent Category 1 tomorrow morning and might surprise us in its strengthening, a low-end Cat 2 is not out of the question if the shear can stay easy on it. These small storms can be so unpredictable. I wonder about the rainfall totals up here this week. Even with baroclinic effects broadening the storm, this thing really is small. I don't expect big rainfall totals too far from the center, that's for sure. Quietly, this is becoming a massive tropical season. August, September, could be a real adventure for the United States.
  9. i'd like to congratulate everyone experiencing their 20th heat advisory or excessive heat warning of the summer, you can trade in your punchcard for a free large soup at any participating Panera Bread.
  10. Don't write it too far off as shear forecasts were a bit more generous this weekend into early next week and again, there's hurricane soup in front of it. But man it looks bad. Might just get picked up as a big warm front by Monday.
  11. The robust southwest convection might favor center relocation there and a more likely FL hit. Central dense overcast seems to be developing. Or not, I don't know anything, I just post what I feel until someone tells me why I'm wrong. I'm trying though.
  12. Looking pretty spicy now... oooh. Nice concentrated center to the southwest. Undeniable organization and strengthening happening.
  13. I'm thinking a path kinda like Matthew until it gets picked up in the current between the trough and ridge. SC landfall. Looking a little better organized. Tonight could get really interesting with all the bathwater it's sitting on. If it can stay organized enough to exclude all the dry low-level air in front of it, anyway.
  14. I think it'll hug near the coast and stay offshore. We've seen that kind of behavior before. The convection fires up over the ocean, so the center gets pulled to it, at least that's my interpretation of what happens.
  15. The shear has relaxed a bit in front of it and the forecasts look favorable for muted upper-level shear where it's likely to be this weekend. Shear further relaxes Monday.
  16. Absolutely pissing rain. Total FF stuff. The entire sky is condensing on my head.
  17. CTC each and every second. I hate to look at my phone unless I miss something. WOW!
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