olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Icy 6z Canadian, a bit warmer/more amped than other guidance
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Feels like the EPS has been rock steady on a Danville to Richmond bullseye for days
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Pretty much where we want it. Sleet is inevitable
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The GFS is a big outlier regarding temps
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As I believe NorthHillsWx alluded to earlier, it's all about the timing of the phase. Once the phase occurs the thermals improve, we really want a classic miller A, while some models are a bit more miller B / late phase (GFS)
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A tale as old as time, all the cold air gets dumped into Texas and we get the leftovers
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Canadian looks halfway between the GFS and Euro at H5
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No phasing, very different than the Euro. The second wave gets left behind as well.
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The GFS so far is a bit slower and a bit more amped
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To beat the dead horse, the ICON looks way different at H5 than the other models
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Like three days before the last snow event the ICON had no precip impacting the Gulf coast, it's pretty much useless.
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SER strikes again!
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This seems to be the first storm this winter both with legit cold and lots of moisture. Now it comes down to precip type. I think North of 85 will stay all frozen barring significant inland shifts, which seems unlikely with the depth of cold air. As always, expect an early flip to sleet and a more narrow band of ZR than global models show
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I suspect much of this is sleet not ZR. Regardless, more amped than we would like which seems to be the trend
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Always feels like this
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It's early, but I think happy hour GFS just might live up to it's name. Hanging back more through 114
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Model consensus currently has a bullseye on Richmond. I would expect that to shift as far south as Down to 85 or as far north as DC over the next few days. Should have a better feel for how things are going to play out in the next 48 hours or so I think.
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A very cold run as well, hopefully that's sleet and not zr, with temps in the mid 20s along 85
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Very closely aligned with the 0z EPS it would seem. Hopefully the 12z EPS ticks south as well, in which case N of I85 will be sitting pretty.
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The UKMET is a lot like the GFS, but slower. The result is more snowy, but I would anticipate some of what it is depicting as snow is sleet
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You will get a sleety mix sandwich and like it
