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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    It does seem like a landfall is becoming somewhat unlikely for 94L because it gets pulled back out to sea by 93L. Meanwhile 93L is too far out to have a decent chance of being pulled into the coast by 94L. The most likely landfall scenario is a combination of 93L being weaker than expected and more spacing between the systems allowing 94L to be pulled into the coast by the ULL
  2. olafminesaw
    Toeing the wedge but the phase diagrams seem to agree
  3. olafminesaw
    Bright sunshine across the Piedmont. Wasn't expecting that!
  4. olafminesaw
    Persistent little strip of drizzle. RAH could have the lowest high temp in the whole state today
  5. olafminesaw
    Back below average ACE
  6. olafminesaw
    Good point, there's a pretty big difference between the beginning and end of September climatologically. Also not a huge data set to draw firm conclusions on.
  7. olafminesaw
    Of the 22 systems since 1980 to pass within 100 miles of the British Virgin Islands in September, 5 made landfall in the us (22%). This feels like a reasonable benchmark based on model consensus, although as Wxwatcher007 says above, there is a high degree of uncertainty until a LLC develops. I think odds of this system never developing at all have gone up this morning with lots of shear potentially across the Carribean.
  8. olafminesaw
    Even with the GFS coming south to start the run, if I take it's position at hour 78: there have been 20 storms since 1980 to pass within 100 miles of that point in September, of which only 2 made landfall in the US, the rest recurved well east. The two exceptions are Hugo and Georges (1998). Georges moved through the heart of the Greater Antilles hitting every island along the way. It is the furthest south of this grouping in the Caribbean as well, so a track south of the islands would be unprecedented
  9. olafminesaw
    This coupled with the 12 Euro, which is way south and breaks up a weak system over Hispanola, means landfall odds have increased this afternoon (both for the Caribbean and Conus). Still no reason to be concerned just yet as we watch the windshield wiper effect.
  10. olafminesaw
    Fairly good agreement on a trough over the Eastern Conus in modeling in agreement with the overall troughy pattern that has been established, leads to higher than normal confidence in a recurve
  11. olafminesaw
    We should fall around 73.4 (based on some rough estimates), which would put us just outside the top 5. What is really impressive is the next lowest of this century is 2013 at 24.7, which ranks 22nd. We did it mostly through high temperatures remaining lower, with no particularly anomalous lows. That's the way to do August!
  12. olafminesaw
    For sure. We do tend to dry out this time of year, but soil moisture went from well above average to slightly below average. Could be some rain next week.
  13. olafminesaw
    Feels like the kind of year for some kind of wonky subtropical landfall
  14. olafminesaw
    Just a perfect evening for a stroll (I won't complain about this year's particularly persistent crop of mosquitos)
  15. olafminesaw
    We obviously still have a good deal of surplus rain from July into the first week in August in Greensboro. However, with about a third of an inch of rain since the 9th, and entering what appears to be a stable period of dry weather and low dewpoints, we may get some minor drought conditions. No big deal, but it's just crazy how we get stuck in these persistent patterns this year.
  16. olafminesaw
    Here's what the CPC put out in May. We should end up slightly above average I think for the whole summer so not bad
  17. olafminesaw
    Ensembles project it at second coolest of this century. Behind 2004. Greensboro is project at coolest since 1996
  18. olafminesaw
    Yes! Trying to confirm that you are correct in observation that such sustained high humidity is unusual, not to be pedantic (although I know if anywhere, this is the place to be pedantic)
  19. olafminesaw
    Looks like a fishy reading but technically Savannah-Hilton head airport dropped to a dewpoint of 62 on Monday, breaking the streak of dewpoint at or above 68 degrees, which ranks third highest all time
  20. olafminesaw
    As we move out of this wet stretch, much of the state experienced fairly impressive totals. Greensboro is the one exception and is only a bit above Average MTD: Greensboro 2.5 Raleigh 7.81 Fayetteville 3.58 Wilmington 3.94 Charlotte 6.09 Asheboro 4.84 Greenville 6.27
  21. olafminesaw
    We have a legit shot at the coolest August on record
  22. olafminesaw
    The next week looks wet, quite a big of variability on just how wet
  23. olafminesaw
    Current radar looks like...dry air is eating into our snowfall
  24. olafminesaw
    Pronounced Guilford county split going on. Odd how things can change in just a few weeks
  25. olafminesaw
    Greensboro's all time record max min is likely to be set for a single month, the lowest it has dropped was 68 degrees which would beat the old record of 67 set in 2016 and 2015 (July as well). We are only +2 on the month, I think that the lack of a break from the heat/humidity is what has made this July feel worse than the last few.
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