olafminesaw

Better still

RGEM is meh. Close to something decent though

Main takeaway:

Big improvement on the NAM through hour 60. Seems they NAM likes to over-amplify at this range though, so tog be taken with a grain rain of salt

Me too. I just know that one day, it'll be "the big one". It's kinda my Moby Dick. When I was a kid DC seemed to rarely get more than 6" or so of snow. Then magical 09-10 hit when I was in middle school. I had no idea 2-3 feet of snow was possible, let alone two storms of that magnitude in a single winter. It was like being transported to another planet, and ever since, I've craved that same feeling to happen again

It's been a long couple of days since that absolutely bonkers GFS run. Always disappointing when a high ceiling event falls through, even knowing how unlikely a high impact event was in reality

Elizabeth City's record of 9.2" for the month of January seems to be within reach

CMC Looks much like the GFS so far

What a monster weenie run for Boston. Holy cow

My best understanding is we need a weaker Northern stream and earlier phasing with the Southern stream, correct?

The RGEM wasn't exactly perfect with our last storm. It was definitely over-amped for the majority of it's runs

RGEM is real close to a solution that work well for most. I think no matter what happens NE NC will fair the best

I know you're kidding around, but any big wrapped up low that passes close to the coast, they worry about mixing. Small changes in track can have huge differences in totals, especially for areas right near the water. The cape can get nothing and just inland can get 12"+.

Yep. It's easy to forget how far East of us New England is. Boston is about the same distance East of Greensboro as it is North. (400+ miles)

Seems to be not quite as good as the GFS at that hour, but better than the Euro

Starting to get that look

Fair enough. I'm a bit out of my depth with regards to Climo here, having lived in NC for only 3.5 years. The look of a Miller A for DC is way different than for North Carolina so it takes some getting used to (it's not like we've gotten many the past few years)

A better run, but continues to show more of a cold chasing moisture kind of setup (we all know how these tend to work out). The west trend can only help us so much, with the phase happening to our NE. I think the ceiling for many is a 3-6" type deal, with the exception of possibly SE VA

I do kinda agree. Problem is, so many rules these days favor offenses. I think overall, the rule is reasonably fair, in terms of giving each team equal chances of success. People also don't consider that all else being equal, a teams chance of winning after winning the toss is lower than the opposing team's chance of winning if they get a defensive stop. I think the reality though is that sports first and foremost are about entertainment. And the opportunity to see both teams go up and down the field a couple times with a clean slate is way more exciting than when one star QB capitalizes on his team's chance at the exclusion of the other star QB

It's the playoffs. Why not just put 15 more minutes on the clock, whoever is ahead at the end wins, 15 more if tied? It's not that hard.