olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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It's great that the majority of the heavy precip will be falling during the daytime.
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The SREF is an awful model. Really Useless. Worse than useless.
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He's not exactly known for his attention to detail.
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Bullish as always
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You can see how the precip gets enhanced as it hits the wall. It will be interesting to see where banding sets up, because wherever the jackpot zone is East of the Mountains, will be sitting under a heavy band for a while. My guess would be up near the VA border.
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It's all like... Come hither with the finger over Greensboro
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More than enough to digest while we wait for the 0z party to start here: http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e120618.htm
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I wouldn't use ensembles to nail down QPF specifics. They're more for seeing track shifts and giving a general idea of where the jackpot will be
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The hour 84 NAM looking suspect?? No.... Couldn't.
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I would think you'd need data to make a claim one way or the other. Just because big model adjustments happen, doesn't mean you know why.
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Edit: That wasn't all
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Warm nose, trying it's darndest:
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Generational or cold rain for the Triad? Maybe the offices should, like, talk to each other every once in a while.
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IDK, The Weather Channel has been all in for a while, that usually gets the hype machine rolling
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Don't look at the precipitation shield when comparing runs, people. Look at the MSLP and 500 mb charts.
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This will be one of the longest duration storms I've experienced, around 36 hours of precip.
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The GFS just NAMed us.
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Notably lower DPs at hour 72
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Seems to be running out ahead of the LP some, with the LP hanging back a bit more.
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Anecdotally, this reasoning seems to come up with every storm, and it doesn't seem like the wave(s) coming ashore leads to big model changes most of the time. Of course, we should expect changes, four days out anyway.
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The GEFS was a step South again. If the Euro makes a small adjustment south at 12z, I'd say the Triad is all systems go for a historic storm.
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Once the 3km NAM is in range we'll have a better idea. It's usually spot on with precipitation type with wedges
