olafminesaw

New product I think

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Really stinks to wake up and see the Euro trending the wrong way. 

Yeah...the Euro is no longer king. The GFS has been pretty consistent for better, or for worse. Still a little big of time for some positive trends, but, unfortunately south of 85 seems to be mostly out of the game for big snow

10 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Honestly I don't think the low being farther south before it gets east of the apps helps your are too much. Infact one could argue it would lead to an even worse outcome with the low pulling farther inland as it heads north through NC

It may not aid in terms of preventing or delaying a changeover, but I think it helps with the duration and intensity of the initial thump. Also helps places like Atlanta substantially

Icon still south of most guidance at 18z

Pertinent notes from the MA sub:

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Couple thoughts/reminders for this type of storm, probably too early:

1. “WAA waits for no one”. Precip usually comes in fast and early from WAA. This is the “thump” we’re talking about. Snow growth usually is meh in this scenario (not fluffy dendrites), so ratios are typically a bit lower than 10:1.

2. The mix line (watch CC radar, hi @mattie g) is going to haul ass northward. Given the likely CAD in place, I’d wag that there will be more sleet than currently shown. That could cut down on the pretty colors on the snow maps.

3. This is a stacked and occluded low, so it will snow much closer to the storm track on the west side than is typical. Hence why even 50-80mi east could make a huge difference to snow totals.

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I honestly think we continue to see it tick upward in future runs as it comes into focus with more "short term" details, i.e. max precip placement, amounts, kinds of precip etc.

Yeah, the uptick has more to do with eliminating outliers than anything I think. The same general idea as 6z

6 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Want to mention something. This is my 11th winter on this board. I've seen so many catastrophic model zr maps. I mean, so many. Every single storm has catastrophic ice storm maps. And yet our benchmark is still Dec. 2002. It seems that once the storm comes, the icy zone always seems to narrow considerably, with sleet or rain cutting into it, and wherever that zone ends up shifting wildly. After all of this, point being: I do not put any stock on model ZR maps until maybe like 12 hours before the event. I do not want to seem like I'm downplaying the threat. Do I still stock up on ravioli I can eat straight from the can? Yes. But just be careful. I think ice maps are magnitudes more unreliable than snow maps. 

Yeah, definitely gotta wait for the hires NAM and even than look at soundings and make a judgement call on which way the precip type will go. Seems like this will fall more on the sleet side of the storm, especially with the dynamics (but could flip back and forth based on rates)

Surprise! Euro holding back the energy more at 78

The 12z Icon lines up pretty much with the Euro

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Just from experience/climo, NAM looks like snow to ice to me. Has negative dewpoints over extreme NE NC at hour 84 which is pretty rare and gives you an idea of how the CAD could be legit' with this. (If you believe the NAM lol)

I also feel like the temp gradient will lead to some pretty intense snowfall rates along and west of the low track, especially with those dews in place

The gefs mean keeps temps below 28 degrees for the duration in GSO. Which I think is notable, since I would expect it to under do the wedge

NAM hangs back the energy more this run. I wouldn't put to much weight too if yet, but it does continue the trend. It is South of the GFS, however

7 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

 

Brings to mind all the hurricanes where the SE ridge was under-modeled and the storm came south. Totally different and I'm sure the model biased are not the same, but looking at that panel it's hard not to think the storm will come South.

Popping in from the SE forum, it's wild how the fate of central NC lines up so much with the fate of this sub forum. Can't think of very many other analogs in that way, other than Jan 2000.

Legendary warm nose

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I've seen the GFS OP do this many times in the 3-4 day range where it wants to run the low right through the heart of the wedge. I believe like many times before as we get closer it will correct this and show more of a smoother rotation down and round the bottom boundary of the wedge as depicted by the Euro/EPS. Also I expect the Nam to show some funky outputs over the next day or two. I would stick with Ensembles at this point and would recommend using caution when taking any OP run for face value, especially when the low pressure placement and movement doesn't seem realistic. 

If you just look at surface SLP it doesn't make much sense, but a lot of the steering influence is at 500 mb, where the door is wide open for the primary low to cut north. Not saying it's a trend that can't reverse, but we're running out of time

Lol

Yeah not much different so far. The ridging over Canada is stronger which is good. But hanging back more with the energy, which is not so good

Does the Northward trend of the trough moving through on Thursday have anything to do with the amplification trend?

RAH:

The overwhelming majority of the forecast interest is obviously on
the Saturday night - Monday time period, and for good reason.
Previous model solutions were somewhat unclear with the
GFS/GEFS/ECENS all indicating the potential for wintry precipitation
for our area, while the deterministic ECMWF was the outlier in
showing a system to our south with little in the way of impactful
weather across NC. Today`s ensemble data and 12Z deterministic
guidance has come into better agreement, albeit with a curve ball in
the form of a pronounced warm nose across Coastal Plain and central
Piedmont. While all the models indicate the potential for precip
Saturday night through Sunday night as an initial low dives through
the Midwest into the Deep South, the guidance is also showing a
secondary coastal low developing Sunday morning (Miller-B style)
with a pronounced warm nose from 925-850mb extending well inland
Sunday afternoon. For being vastly different 12 hours ago, both the
EC and GFS deterministic show 40-50kt easterly 925-850mb winds with
temperatures forecast to rise to around +1C in the western Piedmont
and up to around +6C across the Coastal Plain. Cold air would
eventually wrap back around the system as it exits to the northeast
early Monday morning, perhaps chasing the moisture out of the area
in the process.

At this stage of game, despite an apparent convergence of solutions
with today`s 12Z deterministic guidance and suggestions of support
from their ensembles, there is still a lot of uncertainty that needs
to be sorted out. Precip chances continue to increase during this
period, but the potential for a substantial warm nose could result
in some areas that see snow, ice, rain, or a mix of all the above
with this event. Much will ultimately depend on how closely the low
stays to the coast and the strength/position of the surface ridge to
our north. We`ll continue with the mention of rain/snow for Sunday
into Monday but still too early to talk amounts or icing potential
with any degree of certainty.

5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Easy.  That was a nice little surprise event, 48 hours out, where we always seem to do well with surprise events.  Everyone gets a couple inches and we move on.  These Big Dogs pan out once every 20 Burger Booms (no offense to Burger of course).  The amount of atmospheric alignment it takes to get everyone across the region even a 4" snow is nearly unachievable it seems.  We are playing 8D chess with weather models ( are there 8 dimensions in weather?   when all we really want is a good dose of cold and a few hours of rain.  So yeah, I'm a little pessimistic on the Big Dogs.

I've learned the key too happiness is dismissing all model runs that show "the big one" and being satisfied with 2-4" that coats everything. Unfortunately knowing the key to happiness is only half the battle. I get disappointed regardless when the clown maps don't pan out, despite knowing better.

No need to cliff jump or celebrate until 12z tomorrow at the earliest. We have a pretty good feel for the envelope and I do feel the UKMET outcome is well within it. It seems lot of the conventional wisdom about the North trend is only true maybe half the time and this still looks like A+ chance for most on this board (even if it doesn't end up working out)

Definitely a big step towards the GFS with more of a hybrid Miller A. Doesn't totally cave though, which is good for most everyone

GEFS looks Great. Less amped than the GFS, but a solid hit for all NC