olafminesaw

Just now, burgertime said:

This run it's a WNC special. Low tracks across RDU...but it's a strong ULL so if that is verbatim it's probably creating a ton of cold air with it. 

Would be a nasty ice storm south of I85. That's a stout wedge

Need this to stop trending North

Gotta iron out the vort track, strength etc. before it's even worth thinking about precip type issues. Always an issue when it comes to the big ones, which is why we don't mind an EPS-like solution

Can't afford to see much more amplification than what the GFS depicts. Which is why the Euro is good news. The only other model in the GFS camp is the icon, so I think the full range of outcomes is still on the table

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Pics of 18z GEFS Snowfall?

And this is the part of the show where I get overly invested...

The Euro is almost more frontal, which we don't so much like, if we're hoping for big totals. 

Gotta love how cold that run is for most of central NC. What a bizarre storm track though. Seems like small changes could yield wildly different results

It's really encouraging to see multiple rolls of the dice. I don't think we can put much weight on any one of these modeled storm scenarios yet, but I can't help feeling like something will inevitably shake out in our favor 

Money

Close, but no cigar

24 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I mean it would certainly be a win to see that low a little deeper, maybe Cat 4-5 ish, to make up for that crappy (actually awesome, wink wink) December we just had.  I'll take my 23" of powder for my birthday as it stands now, but 40" is better!

Yeah, I mean, fair's fair. Gotta bring balance to the force, or whatever 

Right where we want it

Realistically in that scenario the triad and SE would be at least half sleet 

8 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

I think the monster showed up again today,GFS 12z 252-264 hour  lol

It seems there's some data issues with the GFS, but showing on the old fashioned NWS site. Wow 

I'd be shocked if y'all didn't get any more snow. But I'll take my annual fifteen minutes of Fame 

30 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

EURO came in suppressed. Might not be a bad thing this far out. 

Not much cold air to speak of though

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Seems the only kind of snow we can get these past few years is 5:1 patchy stuff

Seems we'll be in a bit of a dry slot for the next couple hours in the Triad, still, should get several good hours of snow

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Don't be a downer lol

Great sun angle though!

35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep- snow doesn’t accumulate well in mud puddles. I do like the trend to end as all snow on most models. Think a dusting to an inch is in play for most of the triangle. Hey- that could bust my prediction of no measurable snowfall this season! 

Could end up a lot like the Feb 2020 "storm" (in the Triad)

5 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Well the GFS in fantasy land,la la land(hour 360) has the monster that beats them all today.Might wanna save that one see some 30'' to 40'' totals.

Yep, lol 

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I myself enjoy the snow maps, but...not very helpful other than for trends 

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

12z gfs follows with the low slightly sw of 06z

Brutal cutoff. 50 more miles and we're in business

NAM a tick back south again and quite amped