olafminesaw

Is this the new banter thread?

Changeover cometh

Definitely seems to be trending towards more sleet

Hard to believe it will flip to sleet in a couple hours after the dewpoint dropped to 8 before onset

2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

These aren't freight trains, these systems can literally stop and turn on a dime once they become influenced by a different feature.  If you have a rapidly weakening blocking high to the north and other features in place that would draw the system due north, it wouldn't take long at all for this system to stall and begin moving quickly north. (I'm fairly certain I'm preaching to the choir here, but the statement was made) It can absolutely be in Gatlinburg in 12 hours.

Yeah, we've seen this play out on the models. A shift to the south initially has sometimes resulted in a more inland track. Just depends on how our pesky vortex to the North behaves

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on higher sleet totals and lower qpf, leading to only .1-.2" acreation in the triad

Hate to see the depth of the wedge become shallower, I think as the storm track has trended somewhat more inland. I'm starting to doubt that many will see more sleet than ZR, but it's kinda a coin flip at this point

The air that eventually will be bleeding down into NC is pretty stout:

Storm summed up in one sounding. If this ain't sleet, it sure is close

3 minutes ago, DC2Winston said:

If watching the CC mode on a radar app tomorrow, will the sleet line be coming S-N or more from SE-NW for NC Piedmont? 

More or less from S to N.

Still a nice front end thump on the HRRR, FWIW for central NC

6 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

 

So, RAH is basically saying most of what falls will be unfrozen and will fall when temps are over 32F pretty much from Greensboro east.

A lot of that qpf falls as sleet, so Greensboro might be 2" (.2 qpf) of snow followed by 2"  sleet (.6 qpf) followed by .16 zr (.3 qpf-accounting for run-off). But snow/sleet depth after compaction would only be around 3"

Good rates. One can dream the long range HRRR had any validity

Can you spot the wedge?

5 minutes ago, msuwx said:

It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off.

Is it because the storm isn’t producing pure snow for many? Eastern NC getting the short end of the stick?

To me, this is pretty easily the most significant winter storm, per capita, in a few years. 

Activity will pick up. We're in the in between, where models are pretty locked in, but we're not yet now casting (radar hallucinations and hyperventilating over every HRRR run). I do think the prospect of 2" of sleet is pretty exciting TBH

Seems based on research, that heavy sleet accumulations are rare in NC. February 1987 is a prime example, where up to 6" of sleet fell in Wake county. A very similar setup to this one too, based on the charts in this paper: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA250184

It's a bit confusing, but as I understand it, FV3 refers to a trial version of the model. So every time they're working on an upgrade, they'll release both the old and new versions at the same time and eventually make FV3 operational. 

What I assume is being discussed is the WRF FV3 that shows on pivotal weather. I believe this is a trial version (hence FV3) of a high resolution GFS model

Our trough that will become the primary low is now over the Northern plains

2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

How much credence do we lend to the FV3? Because that's about the snowiest, less sleety/icy modelk for southern VA into norther NC.

Isn't it a NAM upgrade?

Supposed to be like the hires NAM but run off the GFS. I've found it to be straight trash

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I'm not sure about how much I'd cut the totals with temps in the 20's for the duration.

True, although I suspect heavier bands of precip will fall as sleet. FRAM for comparison

6 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Looks about how I think this will shake out. Although I would cut freezing rain acreation in the jackpot zones in half

The RGEM runs the low directly over Raleigh, lol

Crazy how the mesos bring the zr line all the way down to Myrtle at the onset, but yet the triad flips to sleet almost immediately 

5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Here's the prob' for the snow crowd. The 500mb Low is far enough south initially, however it starts to lift NE too soon instead of swinging through the piedmont/coastal plain. With a stacked UL low, you just get too much warming aloft in this scenario for a pure snow event. The best hope is we get enough overrunning/lift ahead of the system before the mid levels start to warm up as the low approaches. In most of the state, the mid levels start to torch after 12pm Sunday.

 

Yeah, I almost feel like the surface low being further south initially, hurts the potential for a good initial thump for those of us north of 40

Apologies if already posted, but he's one of the best snow forecasters out there IMO