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Posts posted by olafminesaw
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GFS very similar to last run. A light to moderate snowstorm for most of the sub
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4 minutes ago, calculus1 said:
Funny how WAA aloft disappears as soon as you need it most
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RGEM looks much like the 0z Euro. More suppressed than last run
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It's still perhaps closer to a good outcome than it appears. Small changes yield big changes in results. We really need that initial northern energy to die out so the energy in Texas can amplify
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Don't think the NAM will be a good run for NW areas, but we shall see. Seems to be keying in more on the first piece of energy, which doesn't get the job done
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7 minutes ago, msuwx said:
The Charlotte metro and surrounding area is an incredibly difficult call as it all hinges on a very subtle (in the overall scheme of the atmosphere) NW expansion of the back edge of the snow shield. I mean these are very small differences when looking at the atmosphere as a whole, but the result has been very wild swings in possible snow totals in that part of the region, even just over the course of the 0z and 6z runs.
6z vs. 0z Euro:
It's going to be painful for those on the N and W fringes watching the precip run into a wall of dry air for hours and hours
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5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:
Is there an analog storm that has pasted the Charleston WV to GSP to Fayetteville to RDU to DC to Philly to this extent?
The snow in WV/Northern VA a separate wave on the back end of the initial frontal passage
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9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:
Watching the 06z euro, minor differences if any so far from 0z..... out to hour 51
Seems to me a step in the right direction for the NW gang. Moves a bit towards the idea of the low continuing to develop as it progresses east
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Just now, calculus1 said:
Yeah, really like where the NAM is going at the end of the run. But, I can decide if that’s a good or bad thing, because it’s the 84-hour NAM. Virtually no wintry precipitation for anyone with the stalled out front unless you are on the immediate coastline. But, it gets cranking near the end and possibilities abound…
Yeah, I feel like the hr 84 NAM tends to be like... "Hey look! A storm!", When sometimes suppression makes more sense
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Delayed, but still gets the job done. Lots of ice for coastal areas
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5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:
The Euro didn't cave but it definitely didn't amplify... still not a bad run.
I'm definitely worried the phase will just keep getting delayed and it will only be a storm for Wilmington to VA beach
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Definitely more east, but still fairly amped. Supports the continued idea of a big hit for the coastal plain
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Still...not totally caving.
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2 minutes ago, DC2Winston said:
Odds of 7:30am flight Friday from Greensboro happening? Serious question as would have to drive and leave night before if canceled…
Maybe 80% chance of happening. Storm isn't really supposed to get going until mid-day, even for the more amped solutions
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I won't post for fear of confusion, but the Canadian drops one heckuva weenie run in a storm on the 27th
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Lol, the triad went from 12" to 2" of snow on the UKMET. Definitely supports the idea not only of more suppressed, but also for significant coastal impacts
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GEFS looks more amped through 90
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Seems like Rocky Mount may end up doing better than the Triad. I have a feeling that although we will have long duration and less mixing issues, dry air may reduce the max potential from playing out
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Ok so far we've got Euro and NAM in the amped camp; GFS, icon and RGEM in the suppressed camp, and UKMET and CMC somewhere in between
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The 12z GFS will be huge. Whichever direction it moves will be a big indicator of which way things are trending. I will say, I wouldn't worry too much about one run of the Euro. If nothing else, it largely rules out the possibility of over-amplification.
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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat
in Southeastern States
Posted
Almost reminds me of lake effect snow showers in Pittsburgh. At least you can get decent squalls with that, but it amazes me how any given January day, there's a high chance of seeing light snow showers. Kinda takes the fun out snow.