olafminesaw

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Seems the only kind of snow we can get these past few years is 5:1 patchy stuff

Seems we'll be in a bit of a dry slot for the next couple hours in the Triad, still, should get several good hours of snow

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Don't be a downer lol

Great sun angle though!

35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep- snow doesn’t accumulate well in mud puddles. I do like the trend to end as all snow on most models. Think a dusting to an inch is in play for most of the triangle. Hey- that could bust my prediction of no measurable snowfall this season! 

Could end up a lot like the Feb 2020 "storm" (in the Triad)

5 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Well the GFS in fantasy land,la la land(hour 360) has the monster that beats them all today.Might wanna save that one see some 30'' to 40'' totals.

Yep, lol 

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I myself enjoy the snow maps, but...not very helpful other than for trends 

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

12z gfs follows with the low slightly sw of 06z

Brutal cutoff. 50 more miles and we're in business

NAM a tick back south again and quite amped

If you average the GFS, NAM, RGEM and Euro at 18z you end up with something decent, FWIW. Doesn't mean that we won't see models adjust North more, but with the current pattern, I wouldn't necessarily count on it

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

One thing we will have is a big soil temp issue in regard to any accumulation. That will cut those model numbers down a lot. We would need some solid rates to overcome that.

Yeah, and temps above freezing for the duration (outside any particular heavy rates.). Seems like relying on rates fails about twice as often as it succeeds, at least in the piedmont.

Also, I'm not yet buying the amped up version the GFS is selling, which is our best shot at significant accumulation. The 18z GFS illustrates how an amped storm fails,by climbing too far North. It's a real tightrope. I suspect the hires NAM Is closest to how it plays out, but who knows?

Seems someone somewhere will get something frozen. 

This shows what our best case scenario looks like more or less:

21 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol does southeast thread have any interest in severe weather or nah?

The current threat falls more into the Tennessee valley sub I guess?

Might take a while to resolve this one...

From drought to Flooding if the GFS is to be believed. The euro is much more flat and progressive. Ensembles support the idea of more reasonable 1-2" of rain, which fits better with the current pattern

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The "pattern change" looks more like a brief cooldown before back to at or above normal. 

Persistent SE ridge is persistent

You know you're in for a long winter when Seattle has days and days of cold in snow in it's future

It's beginning to look a lot like torch-mas 

2 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

My radarscope just went down -- unable to pull data.

They posted on Twitter they are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Bleh

No significant changes on the 20z outlook

Thank goodness the main threat area misses the Cedar rapids area. 

Awesome (new?) free product for Euro ensembles on the ECMWF website. Can't trust the ensembles to pick up on CAD, but worth looking at trends

Definitely unusual to see such a consistent signal for CAD at this range. Definitely gets my attention, especially since exact storm track matters less with these setups. 

Yeet