olafminesaw

BWI - 9.3"

DCA - 6.2"

IAD - 11.1"

RIC - 2.3"

SBY - 3.4"

A low of 37, pretty impressive sandwiched between two 70 degree+ days. Today has the potential for a 40 degree swing. Anyone have any data on how rare that is?

And...gone, lol

First decent fantasy storm of the year

17 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

GFS already in midwinter form 

Lucy is licking her chops. It's going to be a loong winter. 2018 feels like another lifetime ago

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Thursday may see wet snow and sleet mix in as Far East as the Triad 

I've been watching the situation closely. Unfortunately, I think there will be too much dry air and not enough forcing which will prevent the column from saturating/cooling sufficiently.

15 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Imagine the look of disappointment on young olaf’s face when old olaf showed up- he brought a spreadsheet from LWX instead of a sports almanac. 

There's no reason Vegas can't start up some weather related bets... unfortunately my time machine doesn't actually take me forward in time. It works more like a database where I can pull up queries on specifically snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region

https://twitter.com/dariusaniunas/status/1453336151478112261?s=20

Wow

Blasting along now at 17 mph. Kinda surprised forward speed hasn't effected it's structure more

Hmmm

A mesovortex that got slinghshotted across the eye (I'm sure that's not the correct term)? Haven't seen anything like it

36 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

We now have TS Victor.

8:00 PM CVT Wed Sep 29
Location: 8.3°N 25.5°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

What's our vector Victor?

When it transitions to subtropical, will it continue to contribute towards ACE?

Increasingly, satellite seems to be indicating an EWRC is underway. Will be interesting to to see what recon shows

Looks like a cat 3 for sure

There should be a mercy rule for these kind of systems

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

There’s no guarantee the low cuts off either

Yep, probably not very likely, I feel like it's pretty unusual this time of year.

That ULL definitely opens the door for some wokiness to happen. And ULLs are notoriously hard to forecast

The GEFS has been quite consistent/reliable thus far

People forget how even when the pattern favors a strong Atlantic ridge, storms that come out of the MDR Recurve OTS like 80% of the time, especially strong storms. All it takes is a slight relaxation of the high.

Sam's inner core organization is a little slower than expected this morning. May support a slight adjustment south.

Some strong to severe storms this evening