olafminesaw

Is this the LLC?

This feels like one of those reddit April fool's things. Like, it's a practical joke, where we all descend into madness trying to figure out how to get points and badges and why certain new members move up the ranks faster and have special powers.

10 minutes ago, yotaman said:

It says I am 14 points from becoming a rookie. How do you get points? After 7 years and over 3K posts, why am I still a newbie? Enquiring minds want to know.

We are all newbies on this blessed day

Seems like Elsa will be crossing land at the optimal strength for surviving landfall well. Big differences though between a track to the south (less weakening) and North (more weakening)

44 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Low of 36.3 IMBY this morning.

Wow, 7 degrees colder than the airport. 

Really impressive structures with the cells all along the VA. Just not enough spin to drop tornadoes (for long anyway) but a couple nasty looking hooks.

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

I know the Euro isn’t a hi-res CAM. Just didn’t know if maybe there was a hi-res CAM produced in Europe. They’re better than us at making cars, airplanes, and I would assume weather models too.

If you go on weather.us, you can see some different CAMs out of Europe, not sure if any are associated with the ECMWF though. Looks like there's an ICON CAM. None of these are run outside of Europe though

1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said:

Everyone please welcome our newest forum member, King of Prussia Dental Ass.

Good people, great smiles!

Are the cells training over the northern portion of Alabama going to create a boundary that will enhance tornado risk to it's south?

If there's any consolation, it's that the primary threat area is centered over the least populous part of that region. Of course all those bigger cities in the moderate/enhanced are certainly quite at risk as well, but a silver lining nonetheless

Just now, jojo762 said:

Edwards went all in with the 13z discussion. One of the strongest worded discussions you will ever see folks. Very bad day ahead.

Kinda surprising they didn't go with 45%

1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

I honestly don't know.  It's basically a coin toss.  Lets see how CAM outcomes play out throughout the rest of the day.

My gut tells me that prolific tornado outbreaks are always going to be less likely than a "bust" with this kind of spread in CAM solutions, because there are many pathways to a bust and few to a prolific outbreak. 

I think statistical analysis is an underutilized tool in meteorology. In any case of extreme weather, the distribution is skewed right. I figure in setups like these the distribution drops off to the right side of the curve very quickly because of how fragile they are. Extreme environments have a very narrow envelope of CIN, or they fail spectacularly, one what or the other

Wind has shifted to the S instead of SE, should see a steady increase in temp/dewpoints. It's a race between the line of storms and the warm air advection

Thankfully, not the tightest of couplets on the west tuscaloosa storm, for now

Are probabilities defined as odds of a tornado within a circle who's radius is 25 miles, or as odds that a line segment 25 miles long will be crossed by a tornado?

6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Personally, I was surprised with the large moderate area for NC/SC.  I knew there would be a moderate area, but I was surprised at the northern extent of it.  
I think this is where experience with CAD comes into play.  It will truly be a question of how far north and west the CAD erodes during the day...   The moderate area looks to align with your typical ice/rain border in winter weather. 

Especially with rain chances throughout the day and no sun. Definitely reminds me of april 19 2019 (although I think that setup was a lot more CAPE dependent)

For those wondering, blacksburg radar should be back up and running this evening and Raleigh should be back up by the end of Wednesday

This sounding is just....bonkers

14 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I am still confused by why the climate summary for Greensboro was posted

Sorry, I was in the wrong thread

Kinda ironic that suppression only becomes a problem when march rolls around

When the NAVGEM is all you've got...

This is a 5/5 on the weenie scale