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Posts posted by olafminesaw
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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:
That looks like retreating CAD to me. Being scoured away?
Really starts to get established the last couple frames. A strong signal for the climo favored areas
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Just now, ILMRoss said:
Kinda hated the look on the GFS, looked warmer on a wholesale level in our area and the ridge out west wasn't as robust.
Yep, need more blocking for sure. Feels like this year there either isn't enough blocking or the storm hardly develops at all, to where there isn't even really any legit thread the needle opportunities.
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9 minutes ago, CentralNC said:
I get it and I agree on the mid range thing. But he blames everyone else for hype and he's just as bad as anyone. His short range maps he puts out are abysmal
Honestly, his maps would be really solid if he just cut his totals in half. It's like he posts his max potential map every storm by accident, or something
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Ugh, stuck in the subsidence between the blobs. Even so, snowing very lightly.
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5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:
You're about to change your tune my friend. Maybe only for 30 minutes, but it's coming.
This has been the most suspense for half an inch of snow I've ever experienced. I also grew up in snowier climates, so, this is especially tortuous.
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You can see the deform band start to form/fill in. Hoping for a few hours of moderate snow at this point
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I just would like to observe, the HRRR has been a pile of hot garbage. The WRF- ARW has done probably the best so far
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Hires NAM had like a 6 hour dry slot for the triad. Otherwise decent though
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1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said:
My home is in northern Guilford while I own acreage in eastern Stokes. They’re a short drive apart. The house is within the RAH forecasting area while the land is within RNK’s. It’s funny to see the differences in each office’s call maps and forecasts for the same storm. RAH is generally more conservative.
So basically for this storm, RAH says to expect 1” of snow at my house, while RNK thinks I can drive a few minutes to the land and expect to see 4” of snow. I’m betting on 2” at the house and 3” at the land.
RAH Is always seems to be one of the most conservative offices I've encountered. I think their current call Is a perfectly plausible outcome, but more seems likely. They're currently calling for more rain than snow, at least in their hourly, which is a bit strange.
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1 minute ago, Grayman said:
Is this all the way through the run.?
Yup
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For those stuck in the dry slot, could be be a pretty frustrating event, looks promising to start, get a dusting, then hours of drizzle/light snow. For those at the pivot point, it could be pretty epic: a couple inches on the front end, then possibly mixing with sleet, then a couple more inches as the deform band rolls through. The triad could go either way at this point, but 1"+ is feeling pretty solid right now
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Hires nam is blah on the front end (outside the mountains), brings the goods on the back end.
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NAM a step towards the Euro, as far as having a dry slot east of the foothills (to start anyway, then it starts to fill in)
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The Euro definitely moves quicker and hugs the coast less than the NAM, which is one reason for the discrepancy. I think the hires NAM works as a decent middle ground (although I'd definitely think less than it depicts Is likely)
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GFS looks, warm, but just glad it didn't jump north. Time to start relying on hires models.
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Jan 31st CAD event
in Southeastern States
Posted
Yeah, I remember someone posting somewhere a map a while back (may have been weatherbell?), that attempted to calculate true accrual.