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olafminesaw

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Posts posted by olafminesaw

  1. 16 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

    I mean the accrual is going to be a small fraction of what the models are showing with temps hovering around freezing. I'd be interested if there was some type of ZR accrual guide based on temps and precipitation rate.

    Yeah, I remember someone posting somewhere a map a while back (may have been weatherbell?), that attempted to calculate true accrual.

  2. Just now, ILMRoss said:

    Kinda hated the look on the GFS, looked warmer on a wholesale level in our area and the ridge out west wasn't as robust. 

    Yep, need more blocking for sure. Feels like this year there either isn't enough blocking or the storm hardly develops at all, to where there isn't even really any legit thread the needle opportunities.

  3. 9 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

    I get it and I agree on the mid range thing.  But he blames everyone else for hype and he's just as bad as anyone.  His short range maps he puts out are abysmal

    Honestly, his maps would be really solid if he just cut his totals in half. It's like he posts his max potential map every storm by accident, or something

    • Haha 1
  4. 5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

    You're about to change your tune my friend.  Maybe only for 30 minutes, but it's coming.

    This has been the most suspense for half an inch of snow I've ever experienced. I also grew up in snowier climates, so, this is especially tortuous. 

  5. 1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said:

    My home is in northern Guilford while I own acreage in eastern Stokes.  They’re a short drive apart.  The house is within the RAH forecasting area while the land is within RNK’s. It’s funny to see the differences in each office’s call maps and forecasts for the same storm.  RAH is generally more conservative.

    So basically for this storm, RAH says to expect 1” of snow at my house, while RNK thinks I can drive a few minutes to the land and expect to see 4” of snow.  I’m betting on 2” at the house and 3” at the land.

    RAH Is always seems to be one of the most conservative offices I've encountered. I think their current call Is a perfectly plausible outcome, but more seems likely. They're currently calling for more rain than snow, at least in their hourly, which is a bit strange.

     

    • Like 1
  6. For those stuck in the dry slot, could be be a pretty frustrating event, looks promising to start, get a dusting, then hours of drizzle/light snow. For those at the pivot point, it could be pretty epic: a couple inches on the front end, then possibly mixing with sleet, then a couple more inches as the deform band rolls through. The triad could go either way at this point, but 1"+ is feeling pretty solid right now

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