olafminesaw

Nasty sounding fro Raleigh. Good to finally get some clarity on precip type, with the 3km NAM coming into range

8 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Nothing has changed at 51

2 days ago we would have been celebrating the placement of the ULL on that map. What went wrong? Just look at the decrease in heights. Not too shocked to see blocking fail to materialize in a La Nina year

Actually seems like a pretty easy forecast for the most part with the convergence of the models. With the caveat of figuring out how much ip vs zr

Seems like regardless of track, the trend had been to reduce the size of the snow thump area at the leading edge. Why is that?

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The RGEM (better than NAM and Icon IMO) is a much better track for most. 

Pretty torchy in the mid levels though

GSP is bullish

Just now, BooneWX said:

Now it’s hundreds of miles south again 

Haha, yeah, it's drunk. There's a reason it's called happy hour, and as per usual the 18z NAM is the main offender

Live by the NAM, die by the NAM

Gives some sense of where the freezing line may end up at it's warmest, although I suspect you could shift it *East* about 50 miles

15 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

That's alot of precip! Expecting the windward side of the mountains to overperform. 

 

Also I think sometimes convection along the coast can reduce precip totals for the Piedmont. Something to watch.

10 minutes ago, eyewall said:

No surprise that when eastern Kentucky gets heavy snow, there's significant mixing issues

Accuweather's "Wintercast" feature is actually decent. Gives probabilities for accumulation ranges. Calling for the most likely scenario of 1-3" of snow and .5"-1" of ice, which is a little gung-ho on ice for the triad.

With the complexity of the low transfer, ensembles become less of a factor from here on out I think

6z blend of models

4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Blizzard conditions

Sleet drifts! Sounds kinda epic

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

nam thermals suck lots of ip

Winds ripping at 70 kts out of the SE at 850 mb

1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

if looking at the hr 84 NAM is hazardous for your health then this run is probably going to send half of this board to the ER

I was looking at 6z by accident, but my point still stands (even more so)

There's some good looking panels, but posting the hr 84 NAM is hazerdous to the health of weenies. Main takeaway is a good shift south. Hopefully the rest of 12z guidance follows the NAM's lead (we all know it rarely happens that way)

A piece of our energy is coming ashore in the Pac NW, we wait and watch for development over the Canadian plains later today

P-type maps show freezing rain, but mostly sleet, only freezing rain on the fringes (also, those dynamics, wowzers!)

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Raging sleet storm for many

RAH point forecast for Greensboro still calling for all snow  (5.5" on the hourly graph). But the discussion acknowledges the ice threat:

Saturday night, little rain is expected. The bulk of the
precipitation will fall as snow overnight, with sleet/freezing rain
eventually mixing in across the south as warmer air begins to move
in aloft. The push of warm air begins in earnest after sunrise
Sunday, which should limit the areal extent of snow by Sunday
afternoon. Rain will eventually make its way in along the I-95
corridor, but farther to the west, sleet and/or freezing rain will
be the dominant precipitation types, depending on the depths of the
warm layer aloft and cold layer at the surface. The GFS and European
are now in better spatial agreement with the dry slot moving
directly across central NC, reducing the potential for wraparound
snowfall Sunday night, although the ECMWF is now about 6 hours
slower than the GFS.

A few days ago, this system looked as if it would simply be a
rain/snow event. Over the last 72 hours, the westward trend of the
surface low moving farther inland makes a widespread significant
icing event appear more and more likely west of I-95.