olafminesaw

Starting to get that look

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Agree to an extent, but if this thing goes bombs away as a dynamic system, as progged, these are the ones that rapidly drag down the colder 850 mb air and “manufacture” their own cold west of the track. This is not a slider type storm with cold air chasing moisture if it’s going to town, as it has the potential to do. Very very very few big central NC snows begin as pure snow 

Fair enough. I'm a bit out of my depth with regards to Climo here, having lived in NC for only 3.5 years. The look of a Miller A for DC is way different than for North Carolina so it takes some getting used to (it's not like we've gotten many the past few years)

A better run, but continues to show more of a cold chasing moisture kind of setup (we all know how these tend to work out). The west trend can only help us so much, with the phase happening to our NE. I think the ceiling for many is a 3-6" type deal, with the exception of possibly SE VA

42 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

While I agree to some extent, your assessment assumes the other team cannot field a defense thar can keep the other team out of the end zone. All they needed was one stop and they couldn’t get it. It’s a 2 sided game not just offense. I like the revised format where a FG doesn’t win it like it used to on your first possession (start with good field position drive 15 yards kick a 50 yarder) but, last night is a perfect example, if your defense cannot keep the other team out of the end zone when they absolutely need it, that team does not deserve to win

I do kinda agree. Problem is, so many rules these days favor offenses. I think overall, the rule is reasonably fair, in terms of giving each team equal chances of success. People also don't consider that all else being equal, a teams chance of winning after winning the toss is lower than the opposing team's chance of winning if they get a defensive stop.

I think the reality though is that sports first and foremost are about entertainment. And the opportunity to see both teams go up and down the field a couple times with a clean slate is way more exciting than when one star QB capitalizes on his team's chance at the exclusion of the other star QB

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

The OT format for the NFL is long past the need for revising.

Too huge of an advantage for the coin toss winner. Chiefs/Bills was literally determined by a coin toss.

It's the playoffs. Why not just put 15 more minutes on the clock, whoever is ahead at the end wins, 15 more if tied? It's not that hard. 

12 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Getting the west shift, won't belong before it expands south

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

Maybe. I suspect this will be a DC to Boston special, but who knows. We need the phasing to occur much sooner.

6z Euro ens moves west again

This is a pretty decent look right now. I don't necessarily trust the Miller b-like transfer the GFS has. We need phasing to happen sooner to a avoid major p-type and temp issues for nearly everyone

3 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Euro?

Ofshore low that hits New England hard. Light snow for coastal areas

Baby steps in right direction continue. Still, looking like a thread the needle though

1 minute ago, PantherJustin said:

Yea…. I had only gotten to 84 and I can’t lie I’m driving looking on my phone on tidbits 

Dude... focus on what you're doing. The weather can wait. This coming frome someone sometimes tempted to do the same

5 minutes ago, wake4est said:

I’ll sell my wife for this to verify.

Fringed. Less than two feet. I'm out.

20 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

I love being in the bulls eye, but not six days out. That NW trend will not be kind to us.

Modeling isn't putting us in a bullseye. That particular run is. You have to think about all the model runs existing along a probability distribution. Right now, that distribution pretty much includes all possible outcomes, but favors a big storm more than usual. Lack of deep arctic air is the biggest factor preventing the distribution from skewing more towards a big storm. 

First is the upcoming threat. The second image is last Sunday's storm at a similar range

Well, we have our answer, dry air such as this can't completely sublimate falling snow

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

It all goes kaplooey with warm air for a lot at 198

I fear any east coast bombs that develop this year will inevitably take on a dreaded messy miller b track. 

Also, starting to see some banding on the northern fringe show up on the hires models. Wouldn't be surprised to get nothing hardly any snow, except for one band that moves through, dropping a quick half inch

The 17z HRRR move the moisture inland more rapidly. Starts to blossom along the coast at around 5 pm

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think RAH is spot on with their call. I don’t see Raleigh busting too much higher than the 2-3” forecast. With that even if we get 4” will it be a bust from impacts? Nope. Only those on here will know the difference. This will be a high impact event though given cold antecedent temps and cold temps during snow, much higher impact than 2 inches normally would be 

They've done a great job with this storm, given the hand they've been dealt.

The hires NAM reflectivity map looks great, but the precip map shows zero in the Triad. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out.

Some notes for the Triad

The trends east on the last few runs of the HRRR/RAP seem to be due to a layer of dry air not far above the surface. Could be hard to overcome.

Compare this to last night's sounding at GSO when very light snow was falling. Even with dry air working in from the front, the column is fairly well saturated.

Finally, you can see this layer of dry air just above the surface already showing up this morning, so the HRRR, may, unfortunately be correct.