olafminesaw

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I felt that way too when I took my dog for a walk yesterday afternoon without a jacket. 
 

I’d rate this winter as a B- so far on the following conditions:

Good:

1) warning level snow that was all snow from start to finish and preceded and followed by arctic temperatures 

2) 2 advisory events with coatings of snow 

3) WSW with probably right around warning criteria ice imby

4) best extended cold stretch since January 2018

Bad:

1) December 

2) near misses on both advisory events and the ice storm where the system trended just too far west (that was a painful miss given modeling a few days prior. As was the one last weekend where we ended with a coating)

3) excellent pattern and still only half our seasonal snowfall 

4) being a bit of a snow hole compared to eastern and western areas

 

B+ in Greensboro for a lot of the reasons stated, but we just had a bit more luck (and Climo on our side)

8 hours ago, Scraff said:

 

The pattern continues

2 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

About 30% of the GEFS member's have a moderate snow event for Asheville for early next week.  

The Euro has some light snow up there as well. Seems to be more of a mountains threat, but we shall see

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Hard to think about winter right now. Sun is out and pushing 70 at the moment! Took the dog for a walk during my lunch break and forgot how much I love these kind of days

Wow! Still in the mid 40s in parts of the Piedmont. The wedge is starting to break here though. Above 50 and no longer foggy/misty

There's a slim chance on the 7th/8th. Right now doesn't look like much cold air to work with, so would need a stronger system to generate it's own. But looks like the kind of system that would get squashed easily by any decent cold

12 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I'll be Nam'ed

The NAM is the "singles in your area"

Our next threat period around the 10th 

UKMET looksmore flat. I'm starting to lose faith in the GFS

5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

What's crazy is it's not some large adjustment to get the job done. At hr 90 it's just enough to give someone a surprise

Columbia to Charlotte to Fayetville could be in for a big time storm for their standards

GFS stops the bleeding a bit. Very similar to 6z, but nearly gets enough tilt towards the end to get the precip shield north.

The 6z Euro is flat as a pancake

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Maybe I’m more of an optimist, but for ab event coming Saturday night/Sunday morning, there is still a good amount of time to watch.  

I agree, although with the caveat that delayed storm development has been a consistent issue this winter. Could turn out more of a coastal threat. The good news about the 6z GFS is the high is in a great position. The only reason it warms so much is the LP is weak, there's hardly any precip and it's mid-day as the low is pulling away

Yeah...not a great trend. The door is open, but closing fast. There's hope through at least the 0z trends tonight though

20 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

More/less the models are actually in very good agreement now on most of the 5h features/timing etc... it really just comes down to really small scale interactions and orientations of the vorticity lobes within the small shortwave as it pinches off. 

So...model mayhem for the next for days then....

Cool, cool

Models are converging reasonably well considering we're still 4.5 days out. I feel pretty good about the spread at the moment, with the caveat that a moderate/heavy all snow event is definitely a bit of a long shot

2 minutes ago, NC DataDude said:

So, I'm showing .90" and 1.29" as possible ice accumulations IMBY.  What is the highest total freezing rain event y'all have heard of (a true freezing rain event)?  I know there are diminishing returns when it comes to ice accruement.  What are the indicators/situations that cause for maximum accumulation?  I hope I'm making some sense...

 

Duration is the biggest factor. Most significant ice storms are at least 12 hours of precip and usually not particularly heavy, but consistent. So overrunning events tend to be the highest potential

6 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I'm skeptical this event produces much of anything for the Triangle beyond a little zr early on.  As pointed out by others the cold is simply not there enough early on and retreating rapidly as storm develops.  Congrats to the mountain (maybe foothills) folks.  Think you score decently here.

The cold push is pretty stout, with a dry airmass (this a few hours before onset) This would yield a wet bulb temp of 30 degrees with cold continuing to push in

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Weenie run for the mountains on the GFS

Jan 16th part 2 (but with a better track)

ICON looks Euro-like FWIW. Decent hit of snow for Greenville NC

Some of the disagreement about in-situ CAD comes down to different Climo dictating the outcome. Pretty good setup for ice in the Western Piedmont/SC upstate (although probably more moderate than major ice storm), much more marginal for our many wake county posters

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m just not seeing anything that screams “major” ice storm. There is retreating HP, the timing will have to be perfect with the transient HP to have any frozen, the antecedent cold air is marginal, and this all relies on the system staying relatively weak and not routing the cold air before a wedge can get established. Long story short, this looks like in-situ CAD and some ice but I really doubt this is a major ice storm, at least from the setup I’m seeing

Yesterday the placement was looking better. Just look at the trend on the GEFS. Any amount of amplification will push the cold out in a hurry. 

If the low can slow down and remain to our South like the Euro depicts however, mid levels may not torch so much and we may stay frozen (at least in the Western Piedmont)

3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Eps looks super flat. Gonna need to hold on to the amped gfs on future runs as long as possible. The way this winter has gone we def need to root for more amperage; not less. 

Not a terrible place to be though. Just need a low to pop

3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

That's part of the balance for sure, but the other part is the initial cold press... if we get more cold dry air in the mid-layers out in front of the storm it leaves more margin for amplification yet still cold enough to snow. 

It's probably not realistic to expect an all snow event if we get a decent system, but if we get a good cold/dry push out in front, we could really perform well on the front end thump similar to the big snow/sleet storm back in January. We will get the benefit of the adiabatic cooling in the 850-900mb levels from Southeast flow in to the mountains. 

Yeah, for sure. Some similarities to the big mid month storm, although not as amplified and less surface cold to work with

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

Euro is so close to a straight up snow storm. Super cold column just little suppressed. Verbatim it's a decent snow for Central Georiga and Central South Carolina though. 

I like where we're sitting at this point. Always good to be more worried about suppression 6 days out instead of temps. 

Amplification is what causes the warming of the mid-levels though, so it's a delicate balance