olafminesaw

The hires NAM has temps falling from 52 at 5 am to 37 at 7 am. I'm suspicious that the cold will hang back, which will prevent all but a token flake or two.

Anything that does fall will be unlikely to stick due to our usual March factors that shall not be named. Still, a little white rain will be a welcome sight before spring comes out in full force

Some indications of a snowflake or two Saturday morning/midday for the western/northern Piedmont. The wind chill would make Saturday afternoon frigid by January standards.

Looking forward to next winter ready? CPC to probs to dash your hopes and dreams (ok, I realize this is meaningless)

49 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I was thinking exactly the same thing.  And it was a rather one-sided domestic political answer as well. 

OK, stepping away from the political waters here, so as not to wade too much into that.

I found this video go be super helpful in understanding the situation. Covers everything but the ideological side of things

18 hours ago, mattie g said:

It would probably be easier to answer questions, if I'm honest. There's a ton to unpack and it's really tough to get my head around it all*. Feel free to throw them my way and I'll do my best. I'll also be honest and will tell you if I don't have the expertise / knowledge to weigh in.

I'm not actively involved in foreign or security policy or anything like that now, but I do think my experiences give me a decent perspective on what's going on and some of the language being used by Putin to justify the invasion.

* It's INSANE that we're even talking about a Russian invasion of Ukraine right now. Not that an invasion of a smaller country should be any different, but the unfortunately political reality is that it is. I recently saw some short clips of some of what's happening (nothing graphic), and it got me really unnerved.

I've seen a ton of different takes on what the true motive behind the invasion of Ukraine is. My current impression is it has mostly to do with distrust and resentment of the West as well as a desire to be taken seriously as a nation (which also looks back at the USSR's former "glory" and even beyond). What's your take on what motivates Putin's actions?

Rather impressive soundings last night and this morning

Wedge in all her Glory

9 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

18 and sleet in Caribou is some warm nose

 

Yikes! They also reported 26 and zr two hours later and an hour after that 33 and heavy rain.The corresponding sounding at 0z.

I think we can officially declare winter over after Sunday. No signs of cold before the 10th, at which point we enter really rare territory for snow

Too progressive and leaves the energy behind. Too much ridging out West. Need more amplitude with the wave and for everything to slow down enough to get separation from the wave before it

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Looks like the sun-angle data finally got ingested.

Right, it's tough to get good sampling of the sun being 27 million degrees and all 

Still some hope for flakes, but the warm/whiff scenario is looking way more likely with the overnight runs.

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

DC folks probably happy with that run

Yeah I'd favor DC here.

Odds of being jackpot zone

Whiff/too warm 25%

NC/Southern VA 20%

DC 40%

NYC 15%

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Euro ensemble mean is a beaut 

North of the OP, but not terrible either

9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I wish it was closer to go time but the Euro is a great storm with plenty of qpf. Verbatim it drops 1.5-2” of qpf across the northern half of NC and central VA. Definitely potential out there for the 28th

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

EURO is a good run but it’s cold chasing precip. Verbatim central NC, Triad, and most Virginia folks would be happy 

I wouldn't call it cold chasing moisture necessarily (and all the issues that come along with that). It's just that the storm is too far north. A really good run though, with the way things had been trending. 

GEFS looks decent, but I think this is a 10-20% type proposition

It's the real deal guys...

Gusts of over 50 mph tonight on the HRRR. In the mid 40s in my point and click

Meanwhile in the Pacific, the bomb cyclone bringing our pattern change is forecasted by the GFS to drop 63 mb, from 994 to 931 in just 30 hours. Wild stuff

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

That’s a cold rain pattern east of Boone in March. Need some purples.

Keep in mind that's a seven day mean, so lots of possibilities for deeper cold within that window. Of course, getting the cold and moisture to link up is the key (not counting on it) but the orientation of the cold is pretty ideal. Boone has lots of reason for optimism, and Climo makes any wintery precip a long shot for the Piedmont

36 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The Pattern starting after day 10 looks nothing short of "active."

Nice radiation cooling this morning and a very heavy frost. Down to 21 at the airport, which is nearly a50 degree drop from 36 hours earlier

RGEM is quite wet but questionable thermals. Which is odd because I thought it had a cold bias

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

While I don’t expect anything other than token flakes in my neck of the woods, I am starting to feel more confident those in the foothills/northern triad/SW Va/central Va will see an advisory level snow, probably 1-2” 
 

Models are *somewhat* converging on this idea, though they take different routes to get there 

My only hesitation is all those areas without decent elevation are going to have temp (34-36 degrees outside of the heaviest rates) sun angle, soil temp issues (in descending order of importance here). Banding will need to develop to get the job done. The shift to mid-day instead of early morning hurts us here. In fact the 12z RGEM pulls decent banding through Raleigh in the evening, where timing had actually improved.

11 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

The nam just came out has most of the snow now in va mtns and towards dc. Which you think is more right in your opinion?

Right now, a blend of the RGEM, GFS, and Euro, which favors the mountains, foothills and up into central VA

I think between Martinsville and Lynchburg will do quite well