olafminesaw

UKMET is super weak. Hardly any phasing. 

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yall check out the cmc... at hour 96 it looks pretty good... at hr 102, it goes poof loll

The HP is too far North, which allows the storm to escape to our North before phasing and crushing New England

Overall, a slight positive trend I think

Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Colder GFS run for sure. 

Yep, maybe not as impressive with the dynamics, but that's a tradeoff I think I'd take. Better to not have to rely on rates. Not a huge shift anyway. 

8 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Also popping a surface low in the Gulf. 

Just don't know what would happen there. Looks completely different with the evolution

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Wish we could have seen the RGEM go out further than 84. Looked really nice. 

Yeah, I was just going to mention. Seems really far south with the energy

12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z NAM looks good... I think? Someone with more expertise can chime in on the end of the run.

I think not nearly as good as the GFS, but a little better than the Euro. I think a big key feature is the blocking high to the north. The GFS is pretty well positioned and strong, while the NAM/Euro/Icon are weaker and too far West

12z Icon looks Euro-like

Vs the Euro which has a long way to go

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

The ground temps won't get that warm with as cold as we've been. It would take more than 1 day in the 60s.... ground temps will not be an issue. That's overrated in my opinion anyway

I agree, it's not so much ground temps I'm concerned about as getting the front to move through quick enough before the moisture arrives. Gotta watch trends here, if we can move it south and stronger, we're in business

Hmmm, highs in the 60s the day before? Cold chasing moisture? What could go wrong?

Hmm...so close but so far

Still...gotta watch the initial disturbance, clipper thingy. Could drop a sneaky few inches somewhere. Currently favors to our North, but with the suppression trend, could work out around here

Stays positively tilted and holds back the energy. Not a great run (brokenrecord.jpg)

4 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

#PositiveVibesOnly

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

Hey I gotta cover for eyewall, lol

I do feel a dusting-2" is a plausible outcome for the piedmont. It's our bread and butter anyway.

I feel there's not a huge upside with this one. A bigger phase would yield a big hit for DC, but dynamics would suck down here. Of course the phase could occur sooner and to our South, but we've seen how that has been a tough ask this year. I understand the GFS is currently in a pretty good position. I just think it's a bit of a thread the needle.

Big shifts

Flow too fast, waves too flat. Feel like this will continue through the rest of the winter

Just warm enough to avoid major road issues. The I73 to I40 overpass was slick with a nasty looking crash on the shoulder though

39/15, 3 degrees below the NWS forecast. We'll see if the trend continues overnight

13 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I really think around day break tomorrow there could be issues around the I77-I40 corridor. I know it's not looking like much but with temps as could as they were this morning and the lastest hrrr showing temps right around 30-31 even the lightest amounts of drizzle/sleet could cause issues on bridges and overpasses. To me this a tricky situation because even the slightest amount of ice can catch people off guard especially when the news says expect zero issues on the roadways. 

A ton of dry air to overcome though. I wouldn't necessarily expect any precip, even drizzle before 12z. Temps may be slow to budge though

RAP is a weenie run. More sleet and snow than ZR, and pretty amped

GSO Monday morning

RGEM tends to be too cold with these type of systems, but verbatim, precip starts in the upper 20s and slowly warms

17 minutes ago, Ghicks said:

You have had more snow then me and I’m in the Northern foothills mount airy 

That's a pretty rough screw zone. What's your Climo normally like relative to the Triad?