olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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I feel like it's pretty normal for the highest surge to be pretty far from the center. Maybe Naples is actually pretty much in the highest surge zone
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Looks like they're going in for one more pass right before landfall.
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,based on current radar trends surge may be worse in Cape Coral than Port Charlotte. Absolute highest surge may go between the two population centers.
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Based on radar, if trends continue, a landfall on Boca Grande seems likely. 8 miles or so south of the official track
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It's going to be really close. Should be there in about an hour. Plenty of time to make one last pass
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Seems to be more or less stair stepping towards the coast. More North the last few frames
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Looks like it's starting to feel the shear a bit
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Thank goodness for recon. This certainly doesn't look any stronger than a low end cat 4 on satellite
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Yeah looking "weak" on that side on radar too. Seems to be becoming more uniform as we speak though
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The new eye is about 40 miles across. Still has some work to do, but the EWRC appears to be mostly complete
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Starting to see the new eyewall on satellite
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You can also see the process take place here, it's kinda clear it needs to contract some more before any chance of strengthening: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_09L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html
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I feel like a good rule of thumb is the eye ends up about halfway between the size of the inner and outer when the process begins. Just from observing these happen and being rather fascinated by the process. Also I've noticed there's often a stubborn little bit of the original eyewall left that takes a while to die.
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The EWRC seems to be moving along fairly quickly. This is not shocking as it is moving over extremely warm water and seems to be dealing with fairly minimal shear atm.
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If if it's not approaching cat 5 with a pin hole eye making landfall in a highly populated area it doesn't count. Obviously.
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I want to say 12ish hours is pretty typical, but can be longer
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Looks like a classic EWRC to me. This one may take some time due to the large size of the outer eyewall. Hard to say if it will have time to recover by the time it makes landfall.
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You know it's getting real when the main thread turns to the ethics of rooting for destruction...
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Seeing the isobars parallel with the bay like that is certainly unnerving
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The eye is starting to clear out. Already a stronger looking storm than half an hour ago
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It wobb Yep. It wobbled East along the coast and the last few frames it's back to due north, if not perhaps a hair of a Western wobble
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The NWS forecast is calling for 140 mph gusts in Bradenton
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Seems like recon is still finding a very small core, with a moderately expansive TS force wind field
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Microwave confirms what we are seeing on radar
