olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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The precip distribution actually ended up being fairly uniform surprisingly enough, but the precip cutoff was just a bit further East than modeled (we were living on the edge anyhow). Thankfully we got the heavy rain last Sunday that put a dent in the drought
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Seems to be a big of low level subsidence that is inhibiting the development of heavier precip across the triad. We may end up underperforming unless we can get some better lift.
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Already the 2nd most tornado warnings in a single day for the state at 22 per IEM. 5/31 1998 was the highest single day record with 41 -
YTD heat index values confirm that this has been an unusually warm start to summer.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
olafminesaw replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
I would not be surprised to see several hurricanes in the second half of October/November. The highly anomalous SST's should extend the window of opportunity by at least a couple weeks. -
Geography dictates that almost any system coming into the Gulf is going to have question marks, such as whether a core can rebuild after being shredded by land, limited time over warm water to strengthen before landfall, shear and dry air from troughs coming off the mainland. There's a reason major hurricane landfalls in the Gulf are relatively rare despite the consistently favorable SSTs
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Big eye. Might take longer to tighten up/ deepen.
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This happens a lot, where the only way for the core to tighten after becoming disorganized is frictional effect in the few hours before landfall
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Treasure beach and surrounding areas may get hit the hardest, a big blowup of convection in that area, and some potential to take a step north.
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Good news for Jamaica on the 8am track, it keeps the center well of shore, would probably only push hurricane force winds to the coast and Kingston may have dodged a bullet from a wind/surge perspective. Still, the island will bear the brunt of the heavy rain
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Bizarre looking, never seen such a sheared looking hurricane with such a healthy looking core
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Euro drops up to 10" of rain in a 6 hr period. Considering globals tend to under estimate both localized higher totals as well as terrain enhancement, could definitely be some serious flooding/ mudslides. A big mitigating factor is the very quick forward motion. Most of the rain falls in 6-8 hours.
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I would think the hurricane would funnel water into the Kingston harbor, but I'm not seeing much historically to support this possibility. Dean took a similar track/ intensity and I'm not seeing any record of significant surge. It may be protected by coral reefs and is sheltered by a barrier island so that may be why. And as you say a storm track parallel to the coast is going to push less water than more of a 90 degree angle (not sure if I have that right, someone more knowledgeable can correct me)
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I know we normally say an ERC means higher impact, but with increasing shear it could be a saving grace for Jamaica. Sometimes hurricanes can unravel mighty quick if an ERC occurs in a sheared environment
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Could be a really bad track for pushing surge into Kingston
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I agree, especially since there doesn't seem to be any reporting stations on the small islands that got hit the hardest. FWIW The latest METAR on windy.com says gusts to 67kts 2 hrs ago and 59kts 1 hr ago. Makes way more sense.
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I feel pretty certain that is a faulty anemometer. FL winds in that area only would support near hurricane force winds.
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Structures seem pretty solid concrete. All the roofs will likely be gone though. Even in Irma many well built buildings faired well, and that was a much stronger hurricane
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Highest winds likely on union Island. Even Canouan got a bit of the core with the larger eye. Surge up into Clifton harbor. Obviously near peak winds on Carricou as well.
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I bet she already is high end cat 4. The satellite loop showing on the CNN home page is a terrifying sight. Really shows the rapid recovery and symmetry of the eye
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Per the NHC track, the worst may miss Canouan to the south as well. Which puts a few very tiny islands in it's path, the largest of which has about 3,000 inhabitants
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Dew point records are a bit unreliable, but it seems GSO has hit a DP of 75 for the first time since 2005
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A saving grace for the islands could be the very small *core. Right now the track the entire core missing all the. Bigger islands.
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I'm the same age and have no idea what he's saying so....
