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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    0z vs 12 UKMET
  2. olafminesaw
    Radar can be deceptive, but after stalling out for a while it seems to be moving slowly NE again
  3. olafminesaw
    The WPC is bullish on heavy rain inland. Coastal areas still the main risk region with the possibility for the biggest flood event since Florence.
  4. olafminesaw
    Crazy the differences between the GFS and Euro 3 days out! Big differences in rain totals for the Piedmont. Coastal areas especially in South Carolina of course should get soaked regardless
  5. olafminesaw
    GFS takes a big step North towards the Euro
  6. olafminesaw
    Still a lot to resolve wrt track
  7. olafminesaw
    Just in time to take advantage of dmin Tommorow morning
  8. olafminesaw
    Getting more and more symmetrical. Rare to see a TD with such a clear CoC
  9. olafminesaw
    Much less likely now it will stay offshore after making landfall in FL
  10. olafminesaw
    At hour 141 987 mb taking a hook towards the SC coast
  11. olafminesaw
    FWIW the UKMET stalls out inland as well. Seems to be a trend west at 12z. Still on the table that the storm won't really make it back out over water (at least for very long).
  12. olafminesaw
    I know the Canadian is not to be used for tropical systems, but it does pull the system really far west. Could be an indicator of the overall steering pattern needing an adjustment West perhaps...but I know it may as well be tossed entirely
  13. olafminesaw
    Not even much of what you could call a circulation yet. So no reason to believe that land interaction is an inhibiting factor other reducing the chances of development somewhat in the short term.
  14. olafminesaw
    The outer Banks is due for a scraper. Seems like the would get 2-3 hurricanes/near misses every year but not so much the past few years.
  15. olafminesaw
    Reminiscent of Florence with the crawl inland crushing Wilmington (although it seems most model outputs are pretty low impact once you get away from the coast )
  16. olafminesaw
    The 12z spaghetti plots will be epic
  17. olafminesaw
    Lots of models have this meandering aimlessly near land. Could lead to some significant flooding somewhere
  18. olafminesaw
    Going back to April has been defined by feast or famine
  19. olafminesaw
    We went from the 3rd wettest May to the 7th driest June to already the 11th wettest July. With today's rain we may climb into the top 5 for July as well. Talk about weather whiplash!
  20. olafminesaw
    Was woken last night by heavy rain. Nearest rain gauge is picked up .74 in 40 minutes. Not a single 90 degree day on the 7 day forecast!
  21. olafminesaw
    I mean TBF, a lot of the county did get the split. But I feel your pain
  22. olafminesaw
    Storms just firing just south of the VA border along the outflow boundary formed by the morning MCS. Will be interesting to watch and see if that boundary continues to develop and move south.
  23. olafminesaw
    This would be what happens
  24. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile GSO has hit 97 already tying yesterday's high which was the hottest day since 2015. We have a legitimate chance of hitting 100 for the first time since 2012 (although more likely temps will stall out at 98/99). With much more reasonable dew points, our heat index is also 97.
  25. olafminesaw
    Seems like dew points have been running a good bit higher than yesterday's forecast, especially from the triangle East. Temps meanwhile are if anything a little ahead of schedule.
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