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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Structure is impeccable. HAFS B suggests an ERC starting around 21-0Z this evening. Seems inevitable based on the size of the eye. But could see strengthening in the meantime
  2. olafminesaw
    I think so, I don't think a little bit of shear would cause the eye to degrade on appearance and the pressure to rise so much in a such a short period of time without an ERC. Not any signs of one on microwave which could be just due to the low resolution/small core, but also could indicate more of a meld/quick ERC.
  3. olafminesaw
    Missing pressure data at the moment. Hopefully temporary
  4. olafminesaw
    Sure why not reload and try again
  5. olafminesaw
    Am I seeing a hint of a double wind maxima? Or just noise?
  6. olafminesaw
    Went from 80 mph to 160mph (give or take) in 15 hours
  7. olafminesaw
    Making any mention of a single ensemble member should be punishable by a night in jail or a fine of no less than $5,000
  8. olafminesaw
    The TT SST analysis seems to have ocean temps maybe a bit too cool in the cold pool. A buoy in the heart of it is measuring 78.4F which is warm enough to keep a strong hurricane going. It also has risen a full degree since earlier this morning.
  9. olafminesaw
    Not a ton of strengthening overnight, but improvement to structure, should be stable for a while now and ready to rock and roll.
  10. olafminesaw
    Looks like it's about to start it's RI tonight
  11. olafminesaw
    The TT webpage for Lee updated to hurricane, must be upgrading at 5 pm
  12. olafminesaw
    At the bottom of the lower dynamics tab. But it isn't available in all regions.
  13. olafminesaw
  14. olafminesaw
    Can see a little shear preventing this thing from wrapping up quicker. Otherwise I'd say hurricane by early this evening , but should at least steadily strengthen until tomorrow when shear should relax, as you say
  15. olafminesaw
    Convection going up big time. Will eventually be what drives the formation of the eyewall barring any unforseen hickups
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
    A bit of a shift on the GEFS as well
  18. olafminesaw
    Hilary was forecasted at 105 kts on it's first advisory (skipped straight to 35kt TS). Pretty similar in terms of model consensus for a powerful hurricane at this range.
  19. olafminesaw
    Not a lot of steering in the medium range, it's crawling on the Euro at around 150 hrs. May make for a tricky forecast wrt the timing with the trough.
  20. olafminesaw
    Wild to think of all the water that would push into the bay of Fundy
  21. olafminesaw
    I've noticed the GFS has a bias for making hurricanes way too large. Can anyone back that up? Not really going to matter if it stays off shore, but if it does approach the East Coast, it's something to keep in mind as the hype machine gets going.
  22. olafminesaw
    Still, cloud cover making a difference early. Yesterday's GFS had us at 93 at 11 am, it's currently 79.
  23. olafminesaw
  24. olafminesaw
    Wowzers
  25. olafminesaw
    Will we reach 100 on Friday? NWS doesn't think we quite get there. The EURO, GFS and (long range) HRRR are all above 100, with the GFS hottest at 105. The UKMET, ICON, and NAM are all in the mid to upper 90s. I am inclined to believe the GFS is too hot of course, but reaching 100 remains at least a realistic possibility. Thankfully a relatively dry heat thanks to mountain downsloping, with dew points in the low 60s.
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