olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Models had been showing later for the heavy moisture to arrive. That dinnertime start time was likely based on light precip possibilities and also accounts for trying to get people off the road in case it starts early
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The latest HRRR brings onset much earlier.
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What makes me nervous is the Triad always is the coldest in wedge situations (even compared to 50 miles west), that last hand of heavy rain may come through with temps in the mid 20s. No bueno
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Over a third of the American population is now under a winter storm warning
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https://tinyurl.com/ypmmjduh Lots of fun data to play around with here
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These are for Greensboro
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Worst case 90th percentile map from RAH
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This seems plausible with the possibility of that cutoff shifting north or south
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Unfortunately the dry slot may mean freezing drizzle early that would otherwise be sleet. In general global models struggle with QPF distribution,so while I don't think the cutoff of heaviest precip is nailed down, I would tend to disregard the way the globals broad brush uniform heavy precip
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NAM actually has a band of very heavy sleet across the area. I think with the intensity of the WAA and the moisture feed it is likely that the dry slot won't be as significant factor as normally is the case with a miller B.
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REFS Plumes For Greensboro VS Raleigh at hour 60, Raleigh more of a ZR sounding while GSO more of a sleet
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Thanks! Gets confusing to the public when maybe an area under a winter storm warning could get more ice than an ice storm warning, when ice is the more serious impact to prepare for
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How do they decide between winter storm warning and ice storm warning? If ice storm criteria is met it will always be ice storm warning?
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Is it just me or has the HRRR been performing quite poorly lately? I guess it should do well with showing the CAD evolution regardless of exact details
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Yeah pretty much, at the surface anyway. Stronger CAD despite not really jumping south at all
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Sleet bomb is back on the menu boys and girls
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Through 39 hrs, noticeably south with the push of moisture on the GFS
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Seemingly aligning with the rest of guidance WRT the track
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Found these maps that pretty much align with my thinking right now.
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Is it also fair to say it's handling of the CAD also makes it's handling of the surface low track suspect as well?
