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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Could be the first season since 2015 without a land falling US hurricane. Ironic given that 2015 featured Joaquin, which like Imelda was forecasted to hook into the coast from the Bahamas a few days out but exited stage right instead
  2. olafminesaw
    No landfall would be a big win for the Euro AI
  3. olafminesaw
    I think it has a lot more to do with slower development of Imelda and slower speed
  4. olafminesaw
    Models haven't really been showing meaningful organization for another 24 hours or so, so we appear to be on track
  5. olafminesaw
    Pretty grim for a mean
  6. olafminesaw
    I could see in a setup like this a primary flood zone near/North of where the center stalls, as well as a secondary flood zone where banding sets up away from the core of the system. With onshore flow and moisture being wrung out between the storm and the HP it the secondary banding could overperform
  7. olafminesaw
    A bit more towards the stalled solution, with Humberto and Imelda's latitude closer together
  8. olafminesaw
    For sure. On the one hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to keep 94L from moving northward enough to be picked up by the ULL, allowing for an escape route. On the other hand a stronger Humberto is more likely to move more Polward (East) away from 94L, having less influence
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
    Just over an hour apart
  11. olafminesaw
    All eyes understandably on future Ismerelda, but nice to see a fall chill after. Lows in the mid 40s on the GFS next Friday/Saturday
  12. olafminesaw
    Still more rainfall after this across NC
  13. olafminesaw
    I was looking for an Analog yesterday and couldn't find any TS/hurricane that originated near the Bahamas and took a left hook into the Bahamas. Model consensus vs climo, should be a fun showdown.
  14. olafminesaw
    Yikes. 6-10" for the areas hit hardest by Helene. Fortunately the GEFS is much further east, so an outlier at this point
  15. olafminesaw
    Overnight ensembles showed more offshore solutions so it will be interesting if the 6z ensembles follow with the OP in showing mostly landfalls
  16. olafminesaw
    The visualization with the moving dots is fantastic.
  17. olafminesaw
    I'd say this is going to get the potential tropical cyclone designation/forecast cone this evening, but I wouldn't blame the NHC if the held off as long as possible until they can get some better data
  18. olafminesaw
    It smoothes out the pressure isobars between all the solutions so when you have a spread in tracks you won't see the average storm track. Spaghetti plot:
  19. olafminesaw
    I think as Newman alludes to above it's all about the timing. A faster system will be more of a NC/VA threat, the slowest solutions gets pulled OTS and somewhere in between makes that left hook into SC as it feels the pull of Humberto just a little bit. That is the most delicate balancing act so I agree it is probably the least likely.
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    I do believe we can have very little confidence in models until Saturday when 94L really starts to develop. This reminds me in some ways of Joaquin, which missed the trough leading to hundreds of miles of track error 4-5 days out. Totally different set up, but just as if not more complex this time
  22. olafminesaw
    The interaction of the two storms and the ULL could lead to some nasty flooding. I don't like that models are starting to pick up on a stalled moisture feed
  23. olafminesaw
    It doesn't, last night's run of the Euro has a stronger blocking high over Humberto slowing it down and allowing 94L to be pulled into the coast by the ULL. Without Humberto 94L would have a higher chance of landfall
  24. olafminesaw
    It does seem like a landfall is becoming somewhat unlikely for 94L because it gets pulled back out to sea by 93L. Meanwhile 93L is too far out to have a decent chance of being pulled into the coast by 94L. The most likely landfall scenario is a combination of 93L being weaker than expected and more spacing between the systems allowing 94L to be pulled into the coast by the ULL
  25. olafminesaw
    Toeing the wedge but the phase diagrams seem to agree
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