Yes, and the globals can miss these small scale features that could provide local areas with enhanced precip. Is the NAM right? I would like to see this show up consistently on future runs before committing either way. I will say that a wave developing and some lee-side enhancement is not out of the question by any means. At this range I start to rely more heavily on the higher resolution guidance than on the globals.
As an average, you want to be about 250 miles MW of a "miller A" track. if it hugs the coast and is amped up, there will be a swath of heavy snow around that distance. That's just from all the winter storms I have witnessed in the past. In some of the the colder storms, I have seen the snow line much closer to the LP center. That's just a good rule of thumb.
Stand your ground.... This is far from being written in stone. right now it's where you want it to be. Trust the ensembles more at this range. The op runs will be all over the place until 48 hours out.
I wouldn't worry about the moisture. Every storm we have had this season has over-performed. This one will be no exception. It may be east of us or west of us, but it will not be dry.
We will ... in about 6 weeks. Then we can begin looking forward to the Summer heat, humidity, mosquitoes, mowing grass, fire-ants, pollen, and sweating our butts off. No thank you. I prefer the winter.
Yep, sure is. I see another storm with I-85 written on it. Maybe this time the trends are in better for those areas south of 85. Let's bring this one home.