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CAD_Wedge_NC

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Everything posted by CAD_Wedge_NC

  1. CAD_Wedge_NC
    You know it's over when "Wow" gives up.
  2. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Reports of snow in Atlanta... if this trend keeps up, we could get into the action.
  3. CAD_Wedge_NC
    We all knew that would happen.... This is ridiculous. Winter is holding on by a thread.
  4. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Not that it matters much but storm #1 has moved south some on this GFS run. Takes some of us in NC out of the T-storm threat.
  5. CAD_Wedge_NC
    GSP going with a cold and dry forecast for early/mid next week. Precip chances too low to mention.
  6. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Looks good right now. However, it is too far out for me to believe in it. The Euro is still suppressed.... that's where we want it at this stage.
  7. CAD_Wedge_NC
    No, but March 1, 1960 and March 10,1993 are both in the top 10 for the 6-10 day analogs. We all know what happened a few days later in 1993 and 1960.
  8. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Nope, it's a gulf low with a perfect track. Cold is already established.
  9. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Woah, I will take that in a heartbeat....
  10. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Did you look at the FV3?
  11. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Nope, only the best March of all-time. It's the March by which all others are measured.
  12. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I was 15 years old at that time, and remember it like it was yesterday. We did not get as much snow as folks in the eastern areas but it was colder. 9 degrees F at mid-day with 30 mph winds and heavy snow is something I will never forget. I will probably live the rest of my life and never see that again in this part of the world. I was fortunate enough to be in Chicago during a true blizzard and it was not as much fun as that 1980 storm.
  13. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Before calling this one, I am going to wait until we get into the high resolution models wheelhouse. It is close to a good front-end thump for a lot of us.
  14. CAD_Wedge_NC
    12z GFS looks pretty cold in the LR. Maybe one last stab at winter...
  15. CAD_Wedge_NC
    What's really incredible is that 74 reading in West Virginia.
  16. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Ask those folks in Northern Minnesota if it was warm and dry this winter....
  17. CAD_Wedge_NC
    One thing that keeps me from buying into the FV3 solution is the CMC.... Usually, it sees cad events very well at this range. As was mentioned earlier, either the FV3 will be hailed as the new king or it will look like the court jester.
  18. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Agreed .... The FV3 Will have to have some support from the others before I fall into that camp. That being said, I would like to see it be right this time.
  19. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yeah, I don't have much faith in the FV3 in the long range. However, this is certainly the type of pattern to see a big cad event, if those highs to the north verify.
  20. CAD_Wedge_NC
    I think I posted a 348 hour run of the GFS for that December storm after it was over and it was surprisingly close. However, it lost the storm only to bring it back a week out. I agree with JBurns here, we can't take a fantasy storm serious these days. I don't even get interested until it's 100 hours or less out. By 72 hours it's more believable.... but that's just me.
  21. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Nah, that western US ridge will save us .... look at that split flow just off the California coast.
  22. CAD_Wedge_NC
    No, he is talking about late this weekend.... and I agree. This one is closer than a lot of folks think.
  23. CAD_Wedge_NC
    As an average, you want to be about 250 miles MW of a "miller A" track. if it hugs the coast and is amped up, there will be a swath of heavy snow around that distance. That's just from all the winter storms I have witnessed in the past. In some of the the colder storms, I have seen the snow line much closer to the LP center. That's just a good rule of thumb.
  24. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Stand your ground.... This is far from being written in stone. right now it's where you want it to be. Trust the ensembles more at this range. The op runs will be all over the place until 48 hours out.
  25. CAD_Wedge_NC
    Yep sure is.... Much improved.
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