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Everything posted by SleetStormNJ
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Just like in winter have to avoid model ping pong and observe trends, one, verification data. Wide spread locally still on table through tomorrow. Do think there is a nice swath that’s going to pounded W/SW of the low once it hooks with a ton of rain in quick period Sunday/evening.
- 1,603 replies
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- hurricane gusts
- flooding rains
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Going to be a lot of bad flooding tonight and early AM tomorrow. Lots of places saturated already with drainage issues/soil saturation.
- 587 replies
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OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Development/streak occurring as Walt suggested down in N-VA/Maryland area moving towards and along I-95. -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Makes sense. Kind of a two-part scenario and longer duration between. -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Good work by NWS yet again up and down area. -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I measured about 3.7-3.8 before compaction. Yeah - a bit of an "under" but not a terrible winter event, definite winter feel still out there. Looks like some possibility of some nuisance precip through this evening. -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Hasn't stopped here in Union County NJ (sleet with light snow mix). Stuck in the stubborn band that might be trying to stretch/fill back in for awhile. -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Interested to see what develops later. Can see precip backbuild into NJ and some coastal effect taking shape. Even if light, should maintain the wintry feel rest of day into tonight. -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yes - has done nicely off it's runs at 6z/12z today to match. -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Back to heavy snow again - think it's going to mix in but based on NAM looks like some areas will try to stay primarily snow mix (80-20/70-30). -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Heavy Snow/Sleet mix now. Pretty cool actually. Decent precip intensity. -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Mod to Heavy Snow now. 23.4 degrees. About 3.6" on ground as of 11:15am. Kenilworth, NJ. -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
I'm in Union County NJ - west of City - can confirm all snow at least for now here. Will keep eye out and ears for pingers here. -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yes. I don't get it. Every storm I see the big ole brine truck go up and down and around street 4-5 times. Does nothing. Even worse in my area is they've also pre-salted roads last few light events (didn't really do much to help) and now probably don't have enough salt left to treat roads if we get freezes next couple weeks or a storm or two in March. -
OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Mod snow in Kenilworth, NJ - about 1.5" on ground already. Missed the ruler spot, first time, LOL. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Upton has wiggle room based on models this evening to extend warnings so folks are ready and aware in AM if the evolution and duration come into better agreement. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Cautious based on the evolutions suggested, but I get it with the modeling currently - can always upgrade tonight/early tomorrow AM. -
Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Yup. Those are very much anomalous there and usually would occur in tremendous blocking environments that force tracks to slide underneath/bowling ball fashion and we get fringed. Happens, but not too often. -
Wow. Any thoughts on downstream impact to our neck of the woods and ENSO?
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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
SleetStormNJ replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
There's model disagreement on storm evolution, but virtually all present snowy scenario on order of 4-8 inches with more possible in most capacities for metro area. That's the key takeaway to me - ingredients are there and there's going to be some smoothing right up to this evening as the storm takes shape over Southeast through lower OH Valley. -
I'm interested to watch how much we warm up west of the City. Temps have busted a bit low by few degrees and looks like the cold air is pressing in a bit quicker behind from the Lakes to come later this afternoon and evening.
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Much cooler here west of Hudson thus far so snowpack held remarkably well despite rain and absorbing/runoff of water. We'll see how much it takes a hit temps warm here but i think the expected warm surge close to 50s on modeling will bust a bit in in North/Central Jersey. Either way snowpack and piles was getting a bit dirty and disgusting amounts of salt were on the roads/lots the past week. Time for refresher Thursday perhaps/hopefully.
