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SleetStormNJ

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Everything posted by SleetStormNJ

  1. SleetStormNJ
    Only Ant trying to hack it over and over again so his call looks conservative.
  2. SleetStormNJ
    I’m too lazy maybe to look officially but wasn’t the Feb 2013 monster that dumped LI and CT a Miller B?
  3. SleetStormNJ
    That’s inferred in my post. I assume most of us are caught up on the Miller classifications. If not, I’ve seen some good Miller Bs for my area in NJ. Dec 2003, Jan 2005, couple last decade of variety in scale, and even fringed on a few that slammed LI late the last decade.
  4. SleetStormNJ
    One thing I have learned with setups like these more so than Miller As is expect to be on edge of seat either way and surprised. Some develop too slowly or have sloppy transfer/development and others just explode.
  5. SleetStormNJ
    Agreed. One commonality that is significant in all the models now is the stronger frontogenesis and moisture transport and thus QPF on the models. Another thing to watch. Getting a feeling some locations in PA are going to get the 30” marker.
  6. SleetStormNJ
    The Euro made significant shifts in that direction too after holding steady days earlier contesting the GFS solution a bit.
  7. SleetStormNJ
    Way too early for people living and dying by model runs folks. This still has a good 2 plus day chunk to evolve. It's like people don't learn from the past and thus repeat this weird self-abusing psychological game.
  8. SleetStormNJ
    Very bullish on this threat. Lots of ingredients are there. Feel confident in at least some kind of storm and significant weather impact. Still time to go and of course the swings people feel with modelology, but the ULL/bowling ball look is promising.
  9. SleetStormNJ
    In our crazy climate, i would bet it gets challenged within the next 10 years and would gamble it gets replaced within 20.
  10. SleetStormNJ
    Thanks! Just wanted to say you are a real asset and resource to this board. Appreciate your contributions and thought analysis too! Keep us up to date on the model changes!
  11. SleetStormNJ
    Union/Middlesex/Somerset is not getting 19 inches of snow, lol. 8-14 range I can definitely see with an 80/20 balance on snow/sleet accum.
  12. SleetStormNJ
    That swath through NJ into metro is most definitely including a decent amount of sleet I think.
  13. SleetStormNJ
    I'm not too far from you. Very interested to see how we fare. Sometimes we win and win big riding the line and other times we get sleetfest (hence my sig/name).
  14. SleetStormNJ
    It seems to be a bit more extreme with the track/mid level warmth push than the other models. Worth watching for sure though.
  15. SleetStormNJ
    SG - How does the NAM usually do on thermals in these set ups? I recall it being hit or miss some events (some it nailed, others it came in too fast/warm).
  16. SleetStormNJ
    Toss........
  17. SleetStormNJ
    GFS doesn't bring the mid-level warming/dry slot.....
  18. SleetStormNJ
    Yeah - it is something showing up a bit on all to one extreme or the other - that's why you're seeing a huge slug of sleet in the precip depictions even into parts of south-central/SE PA. Worth looking at tomorrow as the storm evolves and always a bit fun to track the handling of these lows.
  19. SleetStormNJ
    NAM is really kind of on it's own with just how extreme it's pushing the slot and best dynamics NW. GFS is also kind of on it's own with it's confluence/shunt to the East. EURO/UKMET blend seems like a wise evaluation at this juncture.
  20. SleetStormNJ
    Too early to make those calls........LC is just guessing.
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