Typhoon Tip

yeah, I was just going over the more detailed mass distribution and timing and it's really those two days 'at this time' ... I mean, the ensembles of the EPS and GEFs would allow the operational runs to to 'fill those days in' *thu-sat. They were sort of more like that yesterday. It's not believable one way or the other at this range... but these latest runs are cooling the 850s by a couple clicks each day after that. It's not abundantly clear how that is doing that, but both the Euro and GFS did that. It's almost like they're fabricating/introducing emergent little erosion factors.

Except that it takes 5 minutes to install a window unit, close the doors, and turn it on... So oh my god, t-minus whatever days:hrs:seconds to the crushing reality of 5 minutes of effort I guess ... lol

No way ...

I thought it backed off a tick ... but, I think you're referring mostly to the 2-meter type product layouts? The Euro detonates a field of CBs in the mid day heat a week from Thursday, and that knocks the feet out from under the longevity of this thing. It was supposed to be unperturbed thru Saturday and that back end/half of it's being normalized by that 00z run. But with heights starting to ebb the model seems to be using that and the processing together as means to establish decay momentum that normalizes stuff prior to the previous idea. But yeah, the Tues-Wed ... it's like the models trying to 'cone' the heat into a 2-day, sun comes to earth event. It's all noise obviously. Until next Wednesday is D4 ...( maybe Saturday's runs...), I'm pretty heavily ensemble reliant. The EPS continues to inch more impressive in the main 500 dm metrical heights, in terms of layout and vertical dimensions. As did the GEFs, now actually having caught up and being complementary - for still D6 and beyond, that in itself is worth the mention. The GEPs is attempting to down play - either that or it is just not caught up yet. Not sure which... I don't tend to rely on the GEPs for summer stuff.

As an after thought the 80F in some Febs and Marches over the last 20 years may qualify … but part of climatology is the time of year. There may be circumstantial limitations (physically) that prevent really truly gaudy I-95 buck.10s that aren’t there in the earlier spring

Too early to go big ... responsibly, anyway. It's tricky though because ginormous events have a real statistical proven ability to "show up" early and establish themselves in guidance with relative persistence ... compared to say, a big bomb in the winter that comes and goes in the guidance...only to verify as a pedestrian winter storm. Heat is very fragile in the guidance. That's problematic - early detection of historic heat is not really so statistically clad. As I was pointing out earlier, these so -called "synergistic heat events" - codified that way in attribution science related to CC ...etc. - were not seen in the same way prior to their occurrence. The reason for that difference is that they are non-linear - they emerge within the on-going signal. The analogy to "rogue wave" in a choppy sea really does work well. We can predict the stormy sea, we cannot tell if that stormy sea will synergize. In other word, unless we unpack the quantum manifold that excludes time in such a way that all possibilities are known, ...we ain't forecasting Pac NW anytime soon. We can only see the warm pattern. When I see that pattern like that... I agree, let's get the pattern definite. The other aspect is that I don't think the eastern OV up through NE has ever seen a synergistic heat event. It's not a region conducive to that non-linearity. There are places in the ocean where rogue waves are more apt to occur, for example. I'm under the impression that as the analog goes, we are not as heat prone here. Those that hate heat and see 101 on the thermometer would probably rage that we do heat just fine, but Heathrow AP up at London, put up a 105 in 2022, at a latitude 5 degrees N of Caribou Maine. Relative to their climatology, that is a whopper SD larger than anything Boston has seen. That was a patented SHE ... An equivalent temperature at Boston is ~ 112 If the megalopolis from PHL to BOS 2-meter hover T'ed a 112 some fateful afternoon, particularly after it'd been 100 for a couple of stressed out bonker days of it already, ah-heh. right.

So I guess we've reduced the pixel counts/allowance on the site? graphics are being rejected ...ones not particularly expensive either. This is a truncated CFS solution from 12z centered on 204. I thought it interesting to note that this model's climate fusion with the operational GFS is still bursting through that weight and putting this enormous positive anomaly integral fro Colorado to NS

From this range you assume the standard corrections. As Scott was saying, the NW flow is likely to offset - this appears to be ( at this time...) trying to take a S/W plateau slab of desert kinetic air and sending over top. This is not initially a Bermuda/Gulf delivery. 99/63-ish more so than 89/76. The other aspect that I think Brian hit on is that normal model magnification may normalize some. A standard heat wave is still going to be a score for modeling and recognition from this range. We'll see how things evolve in guidance I will say though that the ensemble means of all 3 remain impressively amplified, above 594 circumvallate 500 mb ... in fact, it's not even clear it ends but really just loses coherence by virtue of normal member meandering way out in time - there's still arguably vestiges of it there beyond 300 hours.

HI at 11:45 am is bigger than 4pm

1997 for me ... ... there may be some subjective perspective on what qualifies as fast food. But McDonalds ? no

heh... it's a billion dollar operation that is a baseball organization - it has something to do with baseball. I get it that it's not based on what I just said, but I also didn't say that - I said it helped. I bet if Devers didn't spend the first month of the season suckin donkey D on offense with historically bad numbers ... but say, he hit .380 in the span instead, it would have factored some.

i also wonder if the fact that they swept the Yanks, and took 2/3 in the last two previous series, while Devers was slumping and not really helping them on offense, just might of maybe helped the final inking be a little more legible ...

probably silently speaks volumes about how much they appreciated his antics back in spring training when he attempted to dictate to the organization where/what/how he plays. Just a guess. I mean yeah ... they'll positive spin the move per protocol and PR as something else, but it's really a go fuck yourself thing

This is also a Sonoran heat release pattern fwiw

People engaged in this soc med pastime seem to impulse-down-play when they sense someone's exuberance ... LOL. Probably? this is a good thing. Maybe even instinct as a crowd physical means to normalize the group think toward sensibility. You know, stop a rash decision/recourse that takes out the whole tribe.. heh - then again, we have amongst us some sources that really need that because they are known violators of common verbal decency when it comes to porno interpretation of the modeling cinema - Be that as it may, I would be a little concerned in this case that something extraordinary may be be "cooking." Just keep that on the back "burner" as a non-zero possibility. We have in fact gained on this signal's prominence among the multi-method technique, ranging from ens/mass fields, telecons that represent those (numerically), ...operational version both subtle and gross comparisons... etc. All of them, spanning now 4 consecutive day's worth of runs. The confidence is about as maxed out on what it can be against "model climate error" for a D6-10 range. I mentioned this yesterday and it is still the case... this is a candidate for a synergistic heat bomb. One that that by nature of their emergent properties, would be difficult to see coming. Think 'rogue wave' phenomenon in a stormy sea. The wave at least needs the stormy sea within which to occur. There is some basic identifiable framework required. Perhaps this not unlike the quantum Non-Markovian effect. It's a theoretic that the future state of a system is based not just on the quantum presentation, but also the quantum memory of the system. Having nodal hot dome that's being left to fester, fed by intense insolation over multiple diurnal cycles ... When we say "high launch pad" that isn't merely figurative, that is suspiciously very alike a system's quantum memory "setting the state", and then the non-linear observation takes place. interesting Sooo... for now, what I suggested yesterday imho is still in place. One, we rely mainly on ensemble means. Part of that ... big signals sometimes deamply as they near - I call this the moon on the horizon effect. When the signal first detects out at the temporal horizon, looms catastrophically large, but then as it rises into clarity...it becomes just an ordinary expectation. This is also somewhat analogous to 'boy cry wolf' modeling... because synergistic events take place in the atmosphere, ...we can't expect to catch them predictively just by making sure that every early modeled detection is looks like one. Two, synergistics really can't be assessed with any "degree" of certitude ( haha), but in recognizing the basic framework.. yeah. The other thing to consider is that it won't be 120 here like the Pacific Northwest. We're still going to be loaded with more atmospheric impurities and other offsets that are normal. But, setting records across back to back diurnal days or something ... We'll know if we dealing with a special case if/when

...Stick to the ensembles means from this range re the more important/obvious heat signal in debate. One day shot on Thursday ahead of shallow fropa, with limited backside CAA support. The, synoptic systemic circulation changes that will surge a ridge after ~ D6..7 That much is higher than climo confidence. Exact amplitude and/or interfering nuance notwithstanding... The 00z ensemble means of all three majors were incrementally improved on the heat signal comparing the prior 12z run, which was also incrementally improved on the previous 00z's means. The trend is clad, and is a spatial representation of what the numerical teleconnection correlate: PNA to -1 SD/-summer EPO/ + fluctuating NAO. The operational runs will vacillate between better and worse correlated synoptics for the next several day's worth of run cycles. Probably mid/late week they start coming to a consensus. Two notes: One, amplitude bias at this range is a real model issue. We've big signals start subtly lowering amplitude as we near enough to know this possibility lurks. Two, somewhat in conflict of that notion, we seem to emerge this heat signal above on top of the solstic, and also, evidenced is S/W/ Sonoran heat release. **This is a candidate for synergistic heat event**, but we won't get a sense for confidence in that from this range. Also, we may see a pattern entrance MCS vulnerability late this week or over the weekend as an early guess/surmise, with rapidly rising heights and a NW geostrophic wind over top WSW transport/differential theta-e advection underneath.

heh. Perhaps but climatologically June is not a hot span anyway believe it or not. it’s more like July 1 to August 10

Actually, it wouldn’t Because mein Trumpf will pardon corporation for their obligatory ownership of the cost, while simultaneously hanging civility to cry and die because they are a blue state - which means that they are guilty of the only violation he sees as a crime: not sucking his narcissistic ego prick

Not like this. I would suggest this particular scenario will come down to amplitude more or less, not whether it happens or not – with regard to temperature is being above normal.

Tough sell/science for now ... ( and I realize you're not asking me directly - ) but, I've surmised it may be related to C02 growth in the atmosphere, exceeding absorption rate/capacity of the oceans. With more C02 left available to store tropospheric heat, that effects heat exchange efficiency in the total atmosphere/ocean coupled model. How? A warmer C02 richer atmosphere increased WV loading, and above some mass, this slows the evaporation rate off the ocean, which physically transports heat away with the evaporating mass... This slows ocean cooling, ...such that heat absorption exceeds heat escaping --> temp goes up. Probably? approaching a critical mass threshold where we all die. Have nice day /// 2023 didn't just happen for shits and giggles. And the ITZ SST band only dropping .6, while the Sub -T SSTs tickle history, means the total region is actually not going down.

The diabolical miscreant dystopian ahole in me would rather it be August 21 ...right about on lolly-pop top of the highest OHC climo available around New England coastal waters, after (say) a Hades summer really cooked the shit to historic SSTs. Hell, I remember once swimming/surfing Narragansett Beach in southern RI and the water temp at the buoy/mouth of the Bay just around the corner was 81 ... Granted, it was more like razor thin 74 out in the Bite water S of L.I. but if you're trying/hoping to conserve as much jesus h christitude of storm momentum as possible, September is already starting to create just that much stabilizing marine boundary layer to steal some greedy wind points away. lol

OH, haha. My bad TT... I thought we were talking about heat.

2011 was the most unceremonious break I can recall. It wasn't a terribly long heat ordeal. ...Took maybe 2 or 3 days, but on that 3rd day my car's dash temperature read 108 F on Rt 9 at 55 mph just west of Framingham, obviously that's owing to sun dumping into a blacktop park down there in that 1 story brick and mortar sprawl. NWS sites were 100 to 101 so ... At noon, DPs were close to 70 with temperatures already 96, then mid afternoon right at about 100 ... the DPs just shrank away. KFIT was left at 100 with a DP of 48... what? Meanwhile, HFD was still something like 101/74. Some sort of a quasi dry line had moved passed and evac'ed it all away. It was still hot as hell but the truly oppressive evening that day ended up down around southern zones and the Tristate region. Even though it was mostly a DP loss, I do think that maybe 2 deg of F potential escaped with it. It seemed so, because when the DP crash happened, temperatures stayed the same. Usually you lose DP in a kinetically charged air mass and you go up a degree or two... I suspect there was a non-descript/ poorly or non-analyzed weak "cool" boundary. Because of these aspects, I've always thought that day in July 2011 left a little on the field and wasn't truly maxed I don't think I saw one cumulous cloud during that transition, either. The next day was bone dry at 83 or something banal

EPS mean's making up for CC credits this spring... It's like what's been missing gets added in one 5 day stint. Under a solstice sun. zomb

It's really like it begins now... From this point on you're gaining a little more summer vibes every day. Front on Thursday is a whisky variety ( severe?) and it's mostly a dry line ...setting stage for a synoptic roll out and the heat arrives.