Typhoon Tip

the present covid strain going around has been causing that, a particular 'shivering' response - some taxonomy that is indigenous to this strain perhaps... we've all probably cycled through less potent child variant strains by now, perhaps not even knowing. it's funny how big pharma still trying to squeeze more economics out of the extinguishing fear... anyway, then you hit your ribs with 23 f wind cold, disproportionate physical response ensues. if you were unaware that you have it at the time, your system and/or the shivering probably would come as a surprise.

i think this is even more idiosyncratic than the wholesale PNA consideration. i mean don't get me wrong - you know me, i'm a big proponent of telecon. but this is really about a down-pulse in the hemispheric cold expression at 500 mb. as Will also highlighted over in the event thread, there a coherent relaxation in the depth and circumvallate gradient around the spv/ long wave, and as it lifts out ...that trailing end has a chance to curl up on the flow. here's the 12z gfs version of that ... there still positive slope on the final ejectio out of the west, but this ridge position in the west ( your +PNA notwithstanding - ) is in a much better position to support eastern continental/mid latitude wave amplitude. If this trough should ever curl around even neutral? that easily becomes a bomb on the right with that ridiculous amount of sfc to 800 mb b-c gradient between..etc.

i think we should be watching this 23-25th time range, too

it's not actually a terrible fit for -epo's in the canonical pattern statistics - i think we're seeing a balance between that, and the unusually high degree of gradient/shear size and depth of this spv-long wave hybrid. that latter aspect is inducing higher velocities; those physically stretch the wave signature in dx coordinate..etc - which brings these waves up farther east of normal for -epo.

bingo.. it's why the 24th probably has a better profile for something, relative to 'extended outlook' performance in general. you can actually see it in the operational versions, all three ggem/euro/gfs, from 00z and 06z. the big buzz saw look,while not totally gone, relaxes. this allows that trailing mechanics to then run up the flow encountering less compression/negative interference. the particulars of those solutions are less important than recognizing these larger constraints ( for me ..) but there is even some vague support in the ens means that is frankly better at this range than this one ever was that is the purpose of this thread ( not saying this thread will not prove worth it - just the way the indicators presently align )

John's right ( FXWX ) tho - i'd only add to that, for some in here we're writing to empty skulls. when it comes to hypothesis using principles of meteorology, they're just not there. [ ...right exit region/upper diffluent channel approaches the region but doesn't intersect the theta-e ridge until ... ] = lacking audience when it come to theoretical canvas. one can spend time composing turn of phrases that offer "reasoning bottleneck," which describes and justifies a period of interest ..etc - it could be written with prose so refined that Shakespeare blushes in his grave ... crickets. not everyone can ... and it's not really to anyone's fault. it is entirely possible to have one's virtues in the right order in general, be interested in weather for either science or just liking dramatic events...etc, but just not have the tool-kit for processing how it all works in the background. what i don't like is those that have a kind of manic need to fulfill something that's provided by the utter vagaries of whether a model run has storm or not. those types are not typically very fair when it comes to evaluating one's efforts - if there's even something like 'evaluation' going on at all. it seems very superficially related to whether the last thread, and the occurrence of a boner model run and storm, happen to get them off. there's definitely too much of something like this when it comes to dealing with bus-stop social media lol

you know i mentioned this yesterday ...say it again, we're gonna need to get this < 72 hours. even if there is a consensus there at 108 hours ( say), and it's either all in, or all out at that time, it will still be the case where another ~ 36 hours is required. the models have to be precise to a degree they are not intrinsically capable of being in time ranges much beyond that, given to the highly compressed character of the flow. this latter aspect is shortening the confidence timing a bit this mad compression ordeal is making for the presence or non-presence on the charts sensitive to very discrete perturbations that are below the resolution of the model. that should give this thread some life for the next 2 days ... lol

yeah it is but I think in this case the high compression needs higher resolution to suss out the important perturbations; that which is native to the operational versions, comparing to their lesser informed ensemble members … it may give something back to confidence. It is overall a sensitive shaky set up. 18z op gfs shows how to overcome but again -

humor or not… it’s apparent some of you conflate “threads” with storm and or storm drama. Without actually reading the content of the thread starter and trying to digest what is going on there, and then you judge, after the fact like you were misled? The last thread said in the title, it was either going to be a big storm or complete whiff. Fairly meaning that it was a range of possibilities and guess what what it fucking snowed. I always qualify those discussions with probability and they’re not always that great so stop associating bad turnouts to your own poor interpretation. Jerry no problem with the thread, but I would suggest mentioning that there’s very low ensemble support right now for any specific event

pretty decent continuity by the ICON ... ... tho I am not in general very impressed by that guidance - at least in a vacuum this 120 hr is intriguing considering it's similarities to predecessor runs. something made me wanna check... maybe because folks keep bringing it up in here. anyway, with a wave cyclone closing off down in the Carolinas, while the right exit region of a 150 kt 500 mb jet max is approaching from the west ... that's setting the thread right for the needle. it may be time to start thinking junior varsity for events this year. persistent negative interference and noisy inharmonious wave fights is just relentless. i've never seen so much thermodynamic potential left so incapable of exhausting. hmm i wonder if under-productive winter storm season's might correlate to warmer spring and summer - the budget isn't being spent so to speak... it does sound acme, but why not? when there's a low tc season, the ocean tends to be warmer the following year ...

question: if it never snowed again this winter ... and stayed this cold, would this formally go down as the worst piece of shit winter season since the invention of fuckery ? i think that would be a fair question. i mean, i wouldn't even say it would be worse if it were warmer, because at least there could be something recuperated for outdoor activities. obviously there's going to be subjectivity in any sore butt ranking system but i just cannot help but sense an extra special kind of sucktitude from having two planet's worth of could ingredients and having nothing happened... all the while, posters like Tip and Brook's are mesmerized by gaslighter ensemble means -

it's an aarp driven weather pattern control psyops to see how long it takes for civility to have their faculties lobotomized by ennui -

euro looks like saturday smacks face in the evening with a cold light rain before a butt bangin' light snow misses east of the coast sunday night. where are you guys getting s- on sunday night from ? oh...that's cuz i was looking at the gfs -

it's funny how there's basically a dearth of anything altogether obvious as a focus out there in time and so people seem to somehow see one anyway -

it's a sarcastic jape relating this new AI modeling tech to the key plot element in the sci fi franchise thriller, "The Terminator", from way back in the 1980s - at this point, a series of some 5 films, with the most recent ... I think called, "Dark Territory". in the plot... Skynet was an evolving AI that became self-aware, and then exhibiting separatist modes that were clearly not in the best interest of humanity. Humanity attempted to 'pull the plug'. This only incensed the AI, and in a kind of fit of self-preservation it touched off a nuclear holocaust by launching all the U.S. missiles at the Soviet Union ( at the time the original movie was mad back in the 1980s ... was still an intact sovereignty, and still the primary "Cold War" enemy to western non-communist ..blah blah-blah ), knowing that the Soviet Union would return in kind. That's the gist of it ... it was actually a brilliant story and quite ahead of the times. ...actually, just Wiki "The Terminator" done deal - anyway, people are having fun referring to Euro AI as 'Skynet'

ggem's varied wildly with the total manifold of synoptics, too much so to think that's not just noise - be leery of using it.

there are all kinds of argument to support your hunch there ... but, there is an 'intangible' aspect to this season's modeling performance that is best defined by 'so fuckin' what: it's goin' to do it that way anyway' ness valid arguments are failing with remarkable oddness

you shouldn't have to 'get use to' anything - good writing is awareness of the audience, because what's the point of writing if the communication does not take place. this is a tricky prospect in here though, because if we wanna actually talk theoretical weather -related stuff, you have to "talk theoretical" - I don't invent terms like "geostrophic balance" or "positive vorticity advection" or "velocity absorbing the s/w" because the former is a gradient problem that suppresses the latter ... it's just what these terms have been long codified to mean. the problem there is that there has to be some level of understanding, if even responsibility to engage with this stuff. or else this really is just a pointless waste of time endeavor, because for malcontents on the spectrum...? good luck

what? nothing difficult in the passage okay i put another statement in there - maybe that'll help

it's an overrunning vulnerability e of buff's ~ longitude from my take. it's been looking like that for days of modeling to me. the basic synopsis from 144 thru ..i dunno, day 10-ish, the entire region e of buff and down the ec is quite sensitive to blossoming qpf fields. when the angle of the 700 to 500 mb layer is modeled as paralleling the surface to 850 mb baroclinic axis (approximately from coastal GA to e of cape cod by 144+ ) the model in question does less or nothing. when the modeled flow in the mid level veers even slightly more s (i.e., going back over the boundary) you get the 00z GGEM solution types. it's like a head game in the models of creating enough geophysical instability to detonate the planet into an asteroid ring, and just leave it there in stasis with no trigger - no consequence. LOL that seems a bit difficult to succeed in doing. hyperbole aside, philosophically we get to a point of such excessive volatility, any perturbations at very small scales probably emerge something ... and those triggers are too small, beneath the resolution of the mid range/global solution machinery.

this is actually an exceptional overrunning signal... it's out there at the temporal horizon of the guidance but all three ens means have this implication of deep mass loading SE across Canada, while the S/stream turns back ne from deep latitude statically overruns the cold that the upstream flow loads into the GL and inevitably into the NE. the circumstance of those warmish heights extending from the TV off the m/a western Atlantic is not a warm signal for us in this hemisphere below -

i think i like weathermodels.com 's rendering better than pivotal or tt or golden gate. what's the fees on this site? may give them a trial - ... how are the other synoptic fields - h7, h5, h3 ... vorticity and anomalies... temperature...etc

yeah...i didn't see the 06z euro - frankly ... that hasn't helped in the past this season. LOL my issue is the canvas hasn't changed. too much gradient; too much velocity ( tmg; tmv) there may in fact be some middling events in the mid and extended range but they're likely to be in and out of the global models and not very dependable, as their mechanics are lost in it

great the cmc and the navgem, vs, competent modeling - what could go wrong

agreed