Typhoon Tip

at work

Jokes aside.... take the average monthly departures over say the past 240 months and divide by 240 - That's probably a reasonable numeric first guess and probably a good one as it creates base-line/launch pad off empirical data - We know that DJF is likely ( intuitively ) to be above normal... barring a weird 2015 Feb I wonder if the -AO summer maginally turns into a +AO winter ...

Let's do a sub-forum contest ... Someone throw up at thread, and everyone that cares enough can put up some numbers - maybe Brian or someone can lock posts once they are submitted? Whatever ... prolly not necessary, as we'll know who posted what... I'd say +3.3 ... which should accommodate ( the base-line propensity for above normal + the blocking AO summer buckling early bow shots post the 15th )/2

The other option is poke it and run ...

64 outside is above the normal low. Funny. It's an acclimation thing ... I suspect. A lot of overages on cool descriptions coming

Home stations keyed into Wunder down 'round deez parts are mid 80s ... Dps... 57 to 61... It's certainly subjectively lowering the HI's but ... but we're objectively heading for above normal despite yesterday's cfropa - This is could be how August behaves ... sort of genetically not having fallen far from the 2019 summer weather genetic tree. The color of this summer's eyes are +3 or +5 ... and it'll just find a way to get there. Fun metaphors aside ... I am noticing the CDC PNA and negative and the CPC variation is also fallen ... even though that tele is almost in-germane at this time of year. But the negative NAO was more east based and is neutralizing ...and that may be more telling that the correction in the GFS trough sag is plausible - yet again... I'm also noticing the LIs are modeled to tank regionally already by tomorrow so... 26 C in the T1 (980 SIGMA) with -4 LI ...prooobably signals more humidity lurks by Sat.

The Yankee fans would say ... "Too bad that's not Fenway ... with the Red Sox IN it"

I happened to step to a large picture window here at the office in Shrewbury as that warned cell was slipping past ... four miles south of this location at most, and was lucky enough to catch a CG that did that exact same "branching" That cell was fantastically proficient with CG of all types, btw. There were countless CGs. ... overlapping at times as they descended from different origins of the over hanging storm cloud structures... Some of the strokes were singular bolts with the typical kinks here and there, but would pulse as many as three times. Then... within a moment later, ...one like that above with the branching. Those did not pulse however. Just bright and instantaneous... I'm wondering if that's polarity of the distroke ... ? Not sure ...but I did notice that the branched distroke CG types were not pulsers.. The single bolts were fantastic blinkers though.

No idea who Ryan Sutter is ... or what his creds are in the field of operational Meteorology, but ... that chart sequence that was ferreted out of the "Twits-sphere" does echo these sentiments I made to Brian yesterday, "but, the gfs in particular ..that model has been attempting to februate the pattern the whole way and here we are with departures... It seems heat for whatever reason, is doubling back in spite of the PNAP dent in the east. .." It's been odd - the last heat wave really did not come via a classic circulation construct over mid latitude of N/A ... And this secondary sort of "emergent" tendency to succeed heat despite the heat-crippled isohypsotic layout has been a recurrent theme. The bigger heat wave from 10 or so day prior, that one had a bit more 'ridged' look to it, but even it left some to be desired... I don't know how long that behavior of "over achieving warmth relative to the structure of the flow" is going to persist, but... it seems to be a trend.. That sequenced charting by Ryan above isn't a surprise as it seems the models are off to the same antic of figuring out how to get AN with a cooler look. It's funny how these emergent complexions seems to take place ... One really can't accurately get a sense of the sensible weather ... without understanding/considering these emergent trends that are ..more like synergistic -

I warned people last week ... not that it matters - wasn't like it could be stopped. But the models could not have been more clear about sending that terminating planetary wave event ( waa off Europe's heat wave) right over those lat/lons...

yeah...and I realize we're just speakin in jest anyway. but, the gfs in particular ..that model has been attempting to februate the pattern the whole way and here we are with departures... It seems heat for whatever reason, is doubling back in spite of the PNAP dent in the east.

"shocked" ... heh - nothing shocks me in this thing. geez, most climate models have been underdone... throwin' another +4 or +5er up there doesn't seem as hard to me anyway...

Deniers deny because they can. That simple. If a person is standing on a train track and there is a one-eyed headlight monster roaring and rumbling metallic horn blowin' warnings at them ...they'll be less apt to deny how standing on said tracks would be detriment to their well-being... The problem with Human response to this crisis ...particularly as it relates to the slowness and/or stopping the denying "idiocracy" ... we simply cannot hear, see, touch, smell, or feel AGW or GW or whatever comfortable or uncomfortable euphemism there is that labels what's going on with the planet. When that happens, the denying will stop. But for the interim... it's not in a guy's living room... It's not stopping them from driving to work. Taking their kids to Soccer. Going on that family vacation... sitting around and opening presents on Christmas morning ( if that's your bag...). All there is are dire warnings that attack the ability to engage in all that... A human being... which billions of create this thing we call Humanity ... never react to warnings. They only agree to them in principle. What resonates is pain - it has to register as an inconvenience to the corporeal senses... That's perhaps an evolutionary catch-22 ( as a digression...) but, we have evolved now the ability and ingenuity to improve survival chances ...beyond ecological balance.... Which Terra-forms this world whether we are intending to or not... and...more likely toward a realm that is no longer going to sustain those same advancements. That's the C-2-2 We are capable of these advances... but the capacity to predict and anticipate consequence for action has not kept pace with the powers of ingenuity. In the mean time, it's a nice summer day out there ...and that's the validation for the warnings - good luck.

Firstly, I'm not sure the social-media community in this particular web destination really IS of the 'wanting/wishing' ilk ... I'll just expand on that a little more... but it was really a 'just in caser' Imho, should 2019 somehow by excruciating number crunching ( less than obviously ) fall short of 2012 ... was it really worth all the effort and writing...and annotated graphs and monitoring and ..well, basically obsession? We are not "making sure that happens" - by plying that effort. I can understand statistical accuracy but I wonder if the real motivation for doing so lurks behind that excuse, because the bigger, longer term consequence of what the world faces is so dire right now that to do so ...could not be any more futile. If it falls short, nothing's different. Why then? The longer vision, we're still f*!&ed folks. As far as that article... There's a lot of complexity that is not really discussed in that... In a general scope and concept it's not "un-clad" exactly ...But, there are ... synergistic effects that are 'emergent properties' and aren't really predictable... More over, those can have secondary ...tertiary spontaneities too... The blocking idea can come from other sources: First, ... extinguishing planetary wave/dispersion into higher altitudes. Think of it as where warm advection plumes go to die. The vagaries of R-wave undulations over time, can create episodes where/when warm fluxes cause/contribute to tropospheric blocking .. These are ephemeral in nature... If they persist ( causally ) it's the underpinning pattern that's supporting it.. The NAO domain is a good teleconnector to exemplify this.. It can fluctuate at intraweekly time scales because of this sort of transient phenomenon... And is why seasonal predictions for that teleconnector - heh... good luck. Second ... blocking anywhere from that can happen in any era. Third, ... it is not abundantly clear that GW would in fact promote more of that to happen, because ... it's all still based upon gradients. Without gradients...no air movement exists at all. From that very fundamental requirement of physics, working together with gravity over a curved surface... without the first initial requirement of changing PV=NRT from one point to another...not of this, in fact, this conversation, can happen.... Why is that important? Beyond the obvious ... the arctic also is said to be differentiating warmer/faster than everywhere else... Is that true in the middle troposphere? If so... than the gradient is not necessary increasing because of GW... but, I suspect it is anyway... The arctic is just trying to catch up ...and in the interim ...we are witnessing extraordinary jet speed anomalies and have been now over the recent decades. Flights between NY and London...also across the expanse of the Pacific have registered historically fast ground-based velocity speeds in that time. This is happening because the warmer equator/sub-tropical latitudes are storing more water vapor ( concomitant with the GW ...) and fiddling with the math ... that is keeping heights slightly elevated; pressing ( as it were) against seasonal nadirs in the winter. Even if they are warming...they are not warming fast enough to compensate for the ambient steepening of that gradient that exists between ~ 35N and the 60 N girdle around the hemisphere. This creates the hurried velocity saturation being observed... Lastly ... folks are forgetting that we are still moving through the 11, 22 and 300 year temporal super-position of the Max(min) solar. Those times have been correlated strongly with -AO tendencies... That makes it incredible difficult to untangle 'how much' of blocking is a result of warming arctic ( as it relates to GW ) - vs how much was destined to take place as this solar expectation has arrived and we transpire through... I suspect like everything...there's shared forcing there... ** The gulf stream stuff and the AMOC - that's a whole 'nother ball of wax. The warming in the previous ... probably going back to the early 1980s is when it really started... has been adding fresh water to the surface of the Atlantic... That's been accelerating particularly in the latter half of that multi-decadal time span. At some critical threshold the specific gravity has changed too much...and the buoyancy gained in the aqueous saline waters (at a given temperature).. slows and/or can stops the sinking water process... No sink = no drawing surface water N = break down of the Gulf Stream. This was theorized back then, too... We are ( more likely so ) now seeing this being measured in the environment... Altering the transport of warm surface waters to higher latitudes certainly would effect circulation tendencies through the various meteorological circuitry over time...and time being a variable in climate - there we go... It's a mind boggling array of countermanding forces and whatever is left after canceling out ...dictates the systemic character.

It seems there's an underpinning 'agenda' to keep this year elevated above 2012 ... I guess for the sake of records? I'm curious because I'm not sure why we are so preoccupied by finite distinctions and what those mean to specific records, when the specter of what's happening over the last 20 years is far more telling. I would certainly hope that no one is coveting or even abstractly taking comfort in a acre less melt if it comes to that... In any case, last week I mentioned that the heat wave in western Europe was modeled to plausibly affect Greenland and now ..headlines to that effect are indeed foisted. Granted CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/31/europe/greenland-heatwave-climate-crisis-intl/index.html , ... tends to spin toward aggrandizing in any attempt toward ratings that turn the gears of their media-profit-machine ... we'll just have to see if corroboration surfaces ... I believe some acceleration is likely though. The deep tropospheric heat anomaly effectively severed, formulated a high latitude blocking node ...and that feature has since been retrograding toward Greenland. Still carrying along with it actual warm thicknesses within the anomalously tall H500 isohypsotic surfaces - in other words...a balloon of warm rich ice-sheet melting air - I was wondering if this may enhance the seasonal melt rate. Seems to be at least according to CNN's dystopian formula - The question is, if so ... does any of this also effect an acceleration of ice loss in the total arctic?

There might also be CV activity to follow over the next week ... The MJO is weak but circuiting through the right side of the Wheeler ... and as typical with those wave spaces, the 200 mb velocity potential not as negative ... in fact, modestly positive between the west coast of Africa and 55W. As of the 27th the 200 and 850 mb vector analysis' had modestly hostile/sheer orientation. Today being the 30th...that's a fair amount of time to have changed those metrics. I'm not sure what those are now, but... SSTs/integral heat content is nearing apex, and given to the MJO and those velocity potentials ...those stress mitigators may be lessening here. Meanwhile, a decent cyclonic momentum has recently been ejected and presently is wsw of the CV Islands. It's broad and needs a lot of work ... Saharan air/dust appears for the time being to behave in it's climate zone N of that area. Just in the off chance ... I gotta say...with the AA structure/bias to the hemispheric circulation we are observing as a persistence this summer season... that doesn't really probabilistically/intuitively lend to the notion that this is a good season to carry a TC 3,500 K miles west. For 'cane enthusiasts ... you want more longitudinal flow types...with less N-S-N wave undulations and less blocking at mid and high latitudes - the preponderance of the latter indirectly effects said probabilities, because when there is a lot of that, ...we tend to TUTTs and weakness in ridges.

Europe's recent heat wave is pinching off a warm secluded ridge node and is modeled to slide west toward Greenland. I'm wondering if that may bring warming conditions to the terrestrial interface/boundary layer

GW as being a fallacy: objectivity elided/forced by an opposition that is more likely incapable of perceiving consequence for their stance - 'else, they would not do that. The reasons for that inability are varied from individual to individual, special interest group to special interest group... But by and large, mostly because the specter of what it all means is probably just too untenable within the vaster multi-facets of society, and would not resonate based on verbal warnings alone. However, written on the epitaph of Humanity's headstone, "this is just a fad concern". The human gestalt has never responded as well to threats that are vocal, ..which, compounding, the early efforts to do so attacked the institutions that have procured multiple generations of successful living ( by and large ...) - very bad PR. Compared to when the perception of the threat is corporeal in nature? If a threat can be seen, touched, smelled, felt, or tasted ... people move out of the way. Even now... as the measurements are arriving in clear, coherent datum ... Pompeiians tried to run - when they could finally see it... For everyone else, it would most certainly be abhorrently stirring to deny what was scienced decades ago...and is verifying in the Global environment today. Akin to being warned not to grab the red hot poker... grabbing it, then attempting to persuade people it is not really hot - the onus of persuasion really falls on the other side of that debate at this point if anything at all.... The correlation to the ending preposition - related to global warming - is more likely true than not, given all science on the matter. This all hearkens to a separate issue having to do with modern technology and conveniences effecting perceptions. People are being protected by the former, in such a way ...a bad decision here and there...is no longer resulting in as dire of consequence for a miss-calculation. Integrate that culturally over... it's not helping the AGW--> consequence model in a positive way. As my professorial circle of associates and I have discussed, ...this is as much a sociological crisis as it is a physical sciences one - and until the former is equally addressed... the solutions for the latter will be partial at best.

I don't deserve any credit - I repeat ...no credit. Mainly... because I did not cobble together a seasonal forecast late last summer/autumn. What I did instead ... was drive-by snark post pot-shots at other's gallant, back-of hand pressed to forehead over glazed eye efforts. I mean... veritable Master's caliber dissertations, replete with advanced word processing and state of the art graphical annotations... and me, blithely and assholier than thouly reducing them in two flippant sentences. Nice. That's the way I roll - Kidding... still, I distinctly recall warning contributors often enough, that gradient saturation, a paradigm shift that has occurred since ~ 2000 and continues to become more destructively interfering as the decades click away ... is muddling the climatology of longer termed multi-seasonal teleconnector packages. The ENSO relative numbers and how they have come to correlate ( hypothetical/supposition ) in the past, .... don't work. They didn't work in the powerhouse mega ENSO ( warm phase ) several years ago; and in fact, ...papers were submitted and peer reviewed successfully noting the startling lack of correlative impacts Globally by one of ...if not the, hot ENSO events ever recorded. ...etc...etc... It becomes less likely ( intuitively..) that minoring standard deviation events could impact the circulation of the Global very meaningful, when the massive momentum contributors, could not. ( I have physical hypothesis why that is, too ) I for one am frustrated by GW/climate change...and the continued reticence to even acknowledge that we are living in times that are increasingly rendering all heretofore correlative expectation-sciences ... less than germane. Perhaps not entirely ... please don't read this as absolute. As we know ... the gears of the environment are lubed by balancing forces ...So...threshold and partials are in play at all times...such that result sets both do and do not represent suggestively... At times, demonstratively so, at others...seeming to have returned to the prior expectation...and so on and so forth. But, given the longer time spans...eventually the new paradigm does take over - we're not there yet... But, I do believe that veracious attempts, from the ranks of aficionados that are fortunate enough to have been born and live in an era that provides them any sort of pulpit at all... ( where social media's "peer review" process is tantamount to popularity politics ), to the exulted societal offices of the science... I'm sensing we are all being bamboozled by our own lack of consideration to the changing paradigm that for some reason... no one considers when they engineer their expectations. So how do we do it? Don't... It's irrelevant. I know it's an interest area... but the sad reality we've come to is that party favor seasonal outlooks are a distraction to the real dystopian storm on the horizon. In 50 years... approximately mid way through the big kill-off ... is this going to matter? ( more snark relax...but, ) if we turn to examining seasonal variance as it relates and is pertinent to the Global crisis...that has some substantive value in it. But hell... this is an open forum to the public hoi polloi...and that's not hand-cuffing students to their desks... it's an entertainment/hobby past-time .... and entertainment and responsibility ... mm, usually part company.

I've read/observed SST are below normal surrounding ... That said, cove temps in a still/calm unstressed shore environment after 3 days of high sun will create shallow thermoclines that don't stand up to the first offshore breeze that materialized. Poof... cold. We are in the tripole Atlantic phase of the AMOC and that tends to pool cooler than normal water along the terminus of the L. current - just fyi...

I was talking specifically about cubs with protective mother getting startled... you're siting a different scenario there - least the AC spoke at length about it and its stuff I've read on that anyway - mother bears are a different lot; escape or not, if in their primal brains they feel there is any threat to their kids, you're in the wrong place. I mean ...in general, what I encountered was minimal risk. I was not presenting any threat to it and it had options for vectoring out of there... But any time one sees a wild meat eating animal that probably stood over 6 foot on hind legs also fill up a bike path in front of them, that's bit disconcerting.

Local news media down our way has been warning about bird-feeders in particular ... ( not so much bees but... duh - ). I hadn't paid too close attention. Every so many years you hear of a bear sighting. Cayote does in a house cat ..or Bobcats too. But this year there's been some heightened thing going on... I think there's been a few sightings with a momma and cubs ..perhaps more than one family's been roaming around out here in these NW rural burb's lately... That's what the AC gal intimated on the phone when the call came in asking questions about where and what circumstances, and what exactly I say a couple hours ago. She also said what I saw fit the description of big male and that was a little more alarming in that Ayer is brick-and-mortar town with streets and thoroughfares ... terminating into near-by neighborhoods with lawns that fade into woodland lines. Not totally cow-poke with some population density, so - She mentioned the bird feeders ...and that bears (apparently) have a remarkable memory for where they can eat. Dumpsters behind diners and grocery stores are also a problem, which we have both those too.. You're right about the timidity of the bears ...and this one acting skiddish and fleeing the scenario is typical. But, the "startle" factor is a different thing... It's true that bears will make haste, even with cubs, but if you come up on one so quick and startle them while proximal that's a different beast - perhaps literally...

Yeah... honestly, I wasn't 'scared' per se? I really didn't know what to do. Locking the breaks was really more instinctual - like... sometimes when you ride past a dog the dog will be inclined to chase? Similar deal... didn't feel like being chased by a bear - ha. But yeah... I think I had internal voices telling me not to act panicked or to make sudden moves. So I just slid to a stop and froze, and let the bear notice me... Soon as it did, it bounded away. The whole encounter was really only 40 or 50 feet - so ...despite what I'm saying now, that's definitely way way too close per both common sense and advice by animal control/specialists for that particular species. But it was accidental thing... I haul ass...average 19 to 22 mph on my rides so I happened onto that scene very quickly and zomb! But it's true...if that had been a mom with cubs trying to cross the path .... oy. Not sure the situation resolves the same way - I tell you though...what they say is true. Despite the beastly nature of that animal, they are very very skiddish. That guy really was more afraid of me than I was of him... I was still trying to figure out what to do about the meet up when he was already gone.

For those of us who live mid ...north Middlesex co ( and probably everywhere else W-N-NE of here... ) be careful about bear - I was out doin' a 25 mi ride yesterday and had to lock the breaks, skidding to a stop when I finally processed what I was looking at along the side of the bike path. A huge gamely black shadow was a that of a black bear. The encounter was only abut 3 mi from Ayer ..which is a fairly populated, and though the path its self appears wilderness on both sides there... there are lots of back yards in the region this guy was seen, too. Soon as the sound of my breaks it turned it's leer down toward me, and it leaped over the bike path and scurried into the woods... Pretty amazing. Enormous... It pretty much filled the path width. f'er musta been 500 pd ...I guess a big big male. You know, these television and photos ...they don't do those justice. Those beasts are bigger than we think. So I continued along my ride and less than a quarter to half mile later I pass a young mom with a tot in a stroller... I felt compelled to warn her the bear was in the vicinity... her eyes got big and she turned the stroller around, "okay"... It started to sink in and so I warned others along the bike path. Later as I was bragging about the encounter to other friends and family... they were scolding me for not going to animal control... and I guess in retrospect...if that had been a mom with cubs, I wonder if my sudden startling her would have ended the same way. You might be going, "Tip hasn't posted in months." heh. anywho, I went to the police and then 20 minutes later Animal Control called and took all this information. They said the were getting higher frequency of sightings with mom and cubs in the area, but that description above did sound like a male to them and they were all freakin out.

Heh... that's the snark that leaped to my mind too - ... like, really - 'cotton' okay