Typhoon Tip

Yeah...yup... that's my take, that this is probably reluctantly conceding that direction in all guidance ... stubbornly having to admit it and won't fully until it is 36 hours out LOL But I have other thoughts too... Like, stepping back ( oh god - here he goes... ) the flow is fast ( duh ) but, it's west to east and zonal in nature for the next five days. After which, that and then is where and when the flow starts to "buckle" ... That circumstance of change is very important for two principles in determinism ( which I'm not mansplaining here - you know this ...just sayn'): The first is, the Thursday wave that "should" bring a swipe of fast moving light/moderate snow and mix on the southern edge across CNE, won't even come over the denser sounding domain over western N/A until 12z initializations, tomorrow. It prooobly won't mean a whole helluva lot? But, it only takes subtle potency wrt that mechanical wave space where subtle quotients could mean for a better burst of wintry weather with that..or a south, or a north track...etc. The second is, that's an intrinsic pattern change. And it is one whose scaffolding is pretty heavily advertise to be heading into a PNA paradigm shift that supports more western ridging. Pattern changes as we know are not usually the best time spans for model verification scores ..to put it nicely. But, in this case, the HC and SE ridging/R-wave fiasco that's pretty much dictated our sadness over the last several weeks, is breaking down sort of in tandem with that weekend gigs arrival. We really need the SE not to dawdle in doing so...because, if that ends up being prematurely eroded and/or worse yet, red-herring eroded, all bets are off on how the forcing offsets that wave's interactivity with the surrounding medium east of ~ 100 W. So, there is uncertainty fruit free for picking in the tree of determinism for this week in my estimation. But to your original point... if none of that matters heading into the weekend, only where we are as of right now in the runs? Yeah,...that's not getting out of Miller B result alive. Not chance...too much BL forcing and cold in the lower troposphere, with a 120 kt v-max wind core tunneling S of LI ? f-off man... that's going to bomb.. You'd iron out details but that facet is happening sorry. Probably for Nick - ha There after, there is still now in the GEFs/oper. GFS and Euro cluster, a coherent appeal of HC deflation - being funny...but with heights more natively receding SE of Hawaii around the girdle of S-tropics, together with Phase 7-8-1-2 MJO ..that's still a constructive wave interference that may also lead a -AO response given time and doing so with less compression in the flow over all, allows for less "de"structive individual S/W mechanics.

The thing is that things got unworldly jet max blasting by West is just under our latitude over 120 kn in mid levels… Frontogenics would be off the charts and probably be getting mesoscale QPF clusters that would actually make those totals at local baands. The GFSQPF chart is probably not going to pick any of that up. Thus it’s probably right for the wrong reason at a few points Obviously that’s predicate on the assumption that run’s right otherwise but we don’t even know that

Hey man ... I've said before, I'll say it again... First it gets warm, then it get cold: boom

After a couple days around 70 down this way... ? hope

Half those numbers yup... Still 12 to 16" happening in - probably 8 to 10 hrs ... But Like I was I saying to ... Steve I think it was, I don't think the QPF charts are altogether useful... For more than the usual D6/7 lead, but because that structure/evolution synoptically supports deplorably pornographic for meso potential. Ironically ... a few of those numbers could get 2/3 to 3/4 realized by accident -

Has that 7" in an hr band somewhere look to it, doesn't it.. Sorry, with that incredible power that's probably ceiling Terran physics in having a solid 3 deg of latitude thick tube of wind over 120 kts going W- E from Pit to SE of CC like that... someone is getting strobe lightning too - kidding of course... but with that level of excessive wind solution, the frontogenics probably maxed absolutely there, with trop. folding UVM cores... and necessrily, those QPF charts may as well be douche because they're not going to pick up 0 mi vis, snow rating over 7/hr. And what's amazing...this is a weaker solution by 5 to 10 kts over 12z

Regardless... that suckers over 120 kts at 500 mb in the jet core, and it's not just a flag or two - the whole exit to entrance tube is wind tunneling...

18z 's begun the slow process of abrading next weekend's S/W mechanics by way of velocity saturation now too... christ still has the wave space but details are exposing some theft there

Yeah...more likely than not, and intuitively fitting ... the return rate increased frequency of spike events - as you implied - is causally in the same footing. It's just a fact of life and the Earth now... and going forward. Folks need to get with the program. This shit's going to get more, not less, common if if if if if the current hockey stick climate shit continues to stink up the works. If something happens to offset... sure, that discussion takes place. But right now? There seem to be two factors with no compensators: sun, GW ... By the way, a volcano erupts near the Equator... good start.

The impetus there was "...My hypothesis .." The Hadley Cell stuff, ..yeah, that is bigger than me and my speculations: it is heavily scienced(ing) and on-going, and papered, and is unilaterally in the current zeitgeist of research - which is just not as privy at the level/station of social media, no. I have a link on my work PC that connects to a plethora on the subject matter. But, it's just something I have noticed wrt to our climate... personally. It seems more and more as the years go by, our base-line isn't as dependable; in the absence EPO loading... Put it this way, we used to be more latitude reliant ...we didn't have to worry as much about mass-cold because we were blessed by Earth's geometry. Heh. That seems to be getting harder to do.

I'm interested in how this thing does in that model. There's some growing sort of ...aversion to the Euro call it ( heh ), and this scenario has sort of put it on a stage with lime light - with no peers to support it ( other than the NAVGEM ...uh...), it's making a spectacle out of that test.

It's just feeding my hypothesis that we've already crossed(ing) a climate threshold ...just not one very well identified, because climate is still a learning curve everywhere and all dimensions, anyway. But, it seems as years go by, we either have to have a -EPO preceding or in the temporal neighborhood, are we're too warm for Currier&Ives... like, period. Today is obviously a different thing altogether and I've spent time explaining it to a empty room already, so wont' bother. But... it's like it's getting increasingly more suspiciously coherent ( call it ..) that unless we're directly dumping cold into the 40th parallel, we're flopping over too warm for snow more readily/regularly.

It's almost too much to expect the temperature will correct down to normalcy once the departure is this deep and lengthy... This warmth is no spike... It's two days of it... with a blue flame night in between. That's more than southerly gale WCB type of arrangement. Anyway, the system on Thursday is still present on the Euro but it's too warm. This isn't a cool week. We're struggling with a statically locked 42 N, 850 mb 0C isotherm the whole way.

Yeah.... I don't choose to take sides/ignite vitriol over Logan's readings, but today may be a bad day to strike up contention when it's the same f'n temperature like everywhere Or close enough that an offshore component out of 70 F should conceptually do a 72 there..? Just wonderin' It may be a situ where the error - if proven to exist beyond the local consensus' suspicion - tends to manifest in certain ranges and settings? I know the FIT used to run suspicious DP numbers ...and I used rail on about it, but then there was a quiet fix installed and they been better since 2010 - not because of me...just saying... Sometimes things there have band widths of physical parametrics where the error occurs, and in other environmental conditions, they don't..

yeah..I get it - Tell Don ... I'm okay with it suspicion

Ha ha... man... 'Magine goin' 31 above climo on July 10

71 at mi casa up here along rt 2 I'm only mentioning because there's contention among Mets and privy users over the veracity of Logan's readings...

It's almost comically absurd looking at these daily dep columns on NWS' climo site. +29 at HFD yesterday... +31 at ORH ... like, really? Today would probably go down as extra special double top secret strange ... if it weren't for the fact that we're mostly going to put up a bootleg, midnight low 11:58 pm style... I think anyway... geez, I was assuming but now that I think about it, I haven't even looked.

I got 70, 69 and 71 at the home-stations within a mile of mi casa and ... heh, hate to say, it is definitely either 70, 69 or 71 out there... Boston/Logan may have an issue with it's instrumentation - but I keep seeing it match enough sites that despite not being merely designated official ( in the latter sense ) that's a lot of weight there. Yeah, insane event - ... pretty high confident it doesn't register in folks' minds as a phenomenon, but it qualifies... My wind has died off... The sky is open and blue with picturesque cu... 70.5 on January 12

Actually ...very close structurally/overall to being a season defining event for much of the the region, NNE to the Long Island actually... That front-side high pressure is probably and most advisably being eroded to prodigiously as it is, relative to this and prior runs ( btw on the latter), and an easy assumed correction is to force secondary's hand perhaps a critical 6 hours sooner. Anyway, I like how 156 to 164 hours ..the low ...allllllmost stalls. Really close. We see at 500 mb right there, there's an interval of proficient phasing ..if only suggested in the subtleties of the isohypsotic behavior. I mean it overall just misses a 6 hour stall with a menacing beast, 50 naut miles E of Cape Ann at 160 hours ... Double edged sword there. In one respect, you say at 164 hours, the model's too prone to permutation and future guidance won't do that... But on the other side, if it were showing at 48 hours out, it'd be a higher confidence 'near miss'... If there were ever a better scenario where 'stay tuned' were more apropos, heh.. But that's also being greeding. This thing looks like Rt 2 stays snow, and probably 20+ inches of it too.... And an easy correct - for me, given that high pressure and no way in hell that's leaving the critical thickness plumb that easily - is probably a scalp bomb with a band of icing yet beneath that down in CT.. if this were the only model run

Mm...yeah, I get it. But, I don't think the model has really earned a 'suck this year' rep, either. I think there is a willingness to shine that light on the model...because it handed an iffy performance on a snow storm, and that's like the movie "Rounders," when Matt Damon's character's narrative says, "Few people remember the big pots they've won... but everyone remembers the tough beats where they lost it all" Folks in this engagement/hobby of drug use ...they don't handle losses too well-adjusted, and will tend to remember those with more shimmering alacrity than the mundane monotony of the day to day Euro, which still performs at very good levels. Just my take on things... I need more glaring busts before I'm willing to take the Euro down.

To mention..the S/W in question for Thursday is relaying off the Pac on a flat amplitude trajectory, passing a 100 kt 500 mb jet max S of ORD just 30 hours later... That's not typically a set up that lends to model accuracy...

I stand corrected, Hazey... you did get replies... All spurning and neg-head hahaha

you may not get many replies as that image is clearly good for you ...and blase for New England... But yeah, I saw that...and still suggests that D4/5 is on the table. Seems there is reticence to accept and talk about that on the forum; not sure what the reasoning is there. Seems there is obsession with the one after..which yeah, bears some interesting complexion, but... the 00z Euro solution would probably at least give 1-3 or even 3-5" band in with crashing heights down our way. Ah hell... we need this 12z run to start helping out from other sources.. The Euro's proven its fallibility at other times enough this season not to hang hats on it.

I was actually beginning to entertain the notion that the EPO part of this may be less impressive or discernibly changing ( but will some of course...) compared to moving the PNA from -5 SD to +1 .. 6 pt change in a domain that is truly awesome in size-scale and dimension must simply by proxy of mass alone, conjure opinions for a broad systemic change in the circulation structure over at least this side of the Hemisphere. And it's probable that big of a change has some roots in the Indian Ocean/Asian input, too... considering we are seeing an MJO wave that is robustly modeled, in all agencies, to press through Ph 6 and lurch into Phase 7/8... probably as the curve unfurls in time, we'll see that wrap around toward 1 ( my hunch ) ... These are indicators that tropical forcing is syncing up with the mid latitudes in a constructive way. So, a better/robuster -EPO signal may yet also materialize - I'd bide time on that. But the PNA is definitely correlated with the MJO as it being modeled heading into week two. What is fascinating to me, is trying to figure out which leads which/chicken and egg. Because it almost looks like pure dice roll-timing thing ... They seem to be happening in tandem. Also, I'd be on the look-out for emerging -AO signals if that has not already begun. If the mid latitudes/MJO sync up...that increases cyclone genesis along mid latitude conveyors, and that enhances the Ferrel trade flow/easterly trajectories below the rim of the polar vortex.... which by physics weakens the vortex and blocking nodes tend to result.