Typhoon Tip

It's hard to move toward a destination you've already arrived upon

Yeah...that's exactly where I was heading on my previous - meant latent heat release... convection in the diurnal medium may be throwing off MJO forcing/distribution...

I've actually noticed that too but with the operational version on its own over the last year. Like sloshing ... some sort of diurnal beta function ... or maybe diabetic balancing

Amazing group neurotic reaction this afternoon

The GGEM's reasonable spatial consistency while mainly losing the mechanical amplitude is also a smoking gun for a data/sampling related matters. I'm inclined to think the Euro ends up a little flatter...though it's superior 4-d system may atone for any discrepancy/shortcomings in that regard, it may not avoiding it altogether. It would mean a slightly cooler profile (if so...) and several ensuing hours of 'better mood' as things seem strangely optimistic in the forum world.. ha!

Mm...this entire suite looks like it's running home to assimilations ... I wonder if some sampling is either missed, corrupted, or shadowed ...or some combination of all the above. That kind of continuity shift going from spectral ends of power to pallid is a bit beyond present day tech handling ... Not saying the models are intrinsically that good either - but, ... unfortunately, we can't see any diagnostic information due to Trump haha

...well, in that context, it's whatever models shows the most snow

Agreed re overall active pattern for these first couple of weeks... Doesn't appear to be connected to hemispheric concerns with AO ... Mjo and PNA even appear in disconnect during this particular evolution of events. There appears to be counter-balancing larger scaled influences acting on the general circulation theme over this side of the hemisphere. Fascinating. I've been on top of the indexes lately ...more so than usual, as lot of unused OOO time gave me a couple weeks here in December... The PNA was subtle albeit suggestive of some sort of Archembault correction chances for awhile and so seeing these frets and starts materializing in the individual members ... understandable, once on this side of the se bulge.

well,,... yeah, and we're treading into the quagmire of detail eval on a system that's intrinsically still being designed in the models.... We prolly could spare a temple throb or two here. That said, I sort of agree with Walter's general tenor re the warm look not making a great deal of sense against the background 'feel' ... that sensibility includes verificaiton subordinant tendencies that are more like emergent properties, which have favored cooler results, relative to all, at lesser excuses for occurring. We get into this thing...if does that/good for a couple ticks and we're in business.. That's the holistic thinking. But, not having an actual high pressure situated (relative to that run) over eastern Ontario egress toward the upper Maritimes d. straight region does enter the whiplash BL possibility just the same - which is what I believe you're alluding to. Can't say I'd dismiss that as a possibility at this juncture.. Also, who's to say the GFS's trend is even done... could keep on going NW ...oy

Last update on this exiting this thread's life ..but, it appears the SSW is going to be midland in anomaly when comparing to other years having this phenomenon in the data set. It does also appear destined to propagation behavior, ... a key factorization in driving AO (theoretical/correlative) with gradual downward momentum mixing of easterly wind anomalies concomitant with the warm mass intrusion mixing lower ...gutting the PV. Prior to the typical temporal lag requirement, the present AO is already neutralizing... which I find intriguing. In fact, many CPC members indicating the index is going negative entering week 2. This is prior to the temporal lag. Mm. Perhaps right on top of it though, too. Beyond...not much has changed ...other than bringing some coherence to what this SSW this is likely to be. The exertion with the wind flux would tend weaken the PV by ~ 7 to 10 days from now.... The GEFs are predicting the "split" in the tropopausal sigmas beginning in 5 days at onset... One critical factor at a more super-synoptic scale is whether the MJO can run out into western hemisphere. Phase 7/8/1/2 up underneath, as I think some extended guidance may indicate that taking place... would be a rather robust... hemi-scaled positive/constructive wave interference look if that happens. That would be cool, both euphemistically and literally. I mentioned this the other day; I still see that as in play while we determin a whole-scale relationship as yet to be ironed out. Otherwise, if the midland strike of the SSW parlays to a more modest -AO...even that much would be potentially impressive if these mid and lower latitudes sync up like those MJO/PNA progs suggest they might. I haven't seen the WPO/NPO numbers as of late... I'd really like to - ...if the WPO is starting to descend into week 2 that gets real dicey for warm enthusiasts residing amid the typical continental conveyor regions to put it diplomatically...

Comparing to the Euro ... I don't think that's actually the n/stream entity that's "phasing" anyway. At 96 hours, ...the 00z Euro shows that feature bipass the Lakes and careen up into the Maritimes... It ejects a fresh new piece out of the east Pac near the B.C. coast and that catches up?

Yup - ...this is paint by numbers

interesting yeah... I told you late last night my own experiences in using the UKMET .... not many I remember glancing at it from time to time over the years... mainly when most other guidance were on board for some bomb or some thing and just sort of took it in that it looked similar and moved on. I really don't know much about it, because part of that is my stingy bad attitude toward organizations that think their product is holier than thou and won't let you see it if you don't give up a testie - f.u. man

I remember the contents of a UKMET write-up ... wanna say 6 years ago. Which of course 6 years may make this moot... but it was espoused then that the model is actually ranked pretty high in the 500 mb feature evolution... but that it got there in the mean, more so than consistently showing the right solution? Like, it sprays solution in subsequent runs, ...and it's the average position and depth of all that tended to land reasonably well on the verification.... but no one solution along the way actually did. One of those deals... I guess (yeah) that does sound like a crazy uncle if that's the case.

Oh come on, Scott... You know full-well that the collective of this particular internet enclave prefers delusion over despair ... hahaha. Unfortunately though ... ...that means we lose those June 19 111 F 2-meter temperature renditions. For warm enthusiasts, heh...

Oh my god ... dream job - least for me anyway..

You know ... ( I love a good conspiracy theory) ... one wonders ... The operational GFS has spent the last 18 months with an embarrassing torch bias in the boundary layer... now this? Seems a bit "interestingly compensating" huh? But maybe it's intended to fix that and isn't so secretive either.

So I see what you mean, then, Brian - If I may make a supposition/suggestion? I bet that incongruency may be because the operational GFS has found it's way (06z ) to an almost perfect dynamic fold model... and is processing the atmosphere colder ... so in effect, compensating its own bias.

Word! thanks Nick...

Ha... actually a good point. I haven't seen any testing of that particular metric, either. In fact, I read a whole slide show from the modelers that discussed the FV3's gains and lags ... Their goal at release time is not to foist an operational tool on the world that is worse than the GFS's usual suspects. Tie goes to the runner, being the impetus ...but improvements were noted. It's something ... It at least says that the BL handling isn't worse for one. Heh. The biggest buggaboo about the FV3' is that it still has a progressivity bias like the operational version, which they admit, but...sited how/why it is not at least worse.. it's just similar. Frankly, I've noticed a system frequency bias in the last 90 days of my own observation of this model. What I mean... forget profiling specifics ... it just has too many storms in the field. Not sure what the exact quotas break/broke down to over that 90 days... but, tacitly it has too many of them. Edit, sorry Brian ... I did not see that material either. May as well throw it up again ...

Damn.... the world really needs to remove Trump from power... for the sole singular reason of turning on the f'n Climate Diagnostic Center!!! ...anyway...I wanted to check out the on-line Library at WPO but of course can't because the upper rank and file are taking their ball and running home because they can't stand losing... Imagining a sensible evolution that fits what the 06z run's overall complexion/evolution is giving us... hearkens to December 1996 ... But without seeing the charts I may be totally off on that as any sort of analog -

Whatever solution is less snow is always the safest route ...

Okay...so... just looked at the 06z operational GFS - That's a huge snow solution for along and NW of HFD-BED/ASH line (SNE) ... Nw of that axis no doubt. When accounting for the GFS BL warm bias...absolutely a crushing. There's a lot to that solution ...once doing that conversion/adjusting. One of the more glaring ... the mid level mechanical cores are all perfectly tracked comparative to climo... and just physics anyway! That climatology is there because those sort of tracks always do the same thing, which is rip huge frotogen/bands. There'd almost have to be thunder in a solution/evolution such as this 06z cycle. That 500mb evolution melon ballin' a 522 dm core like that, is a remarkable destablization signal ...one concurrent in space and time with a 500mb, 100 to 110 knt wind maxim just E of Boston? Holy hell... there would definitely be a 4+/hr rated band somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5 deg lat/lon around the left exit region with multipulsed flashing, house frame buzzers. Course... have to say...that's not a forecast - just analyzing this one run.

Nice...that 00z Parallel run of the GFS ... didn't notice at the time but the latter system closer to the 8th is a juggernaut snow producer by using only midland mechanics in that look. That crictical thickness levels are ideal. That cold high is just so quintessentially perfectly placed NNE of Maine and mightily...immovably noses down. Any systemic inflow of any kind is immediately tilted vertically such that the whole thing absolutely maximizes lift. That would be awesome ...I want that soo much. Not even for the experience of snow, itself. Those that know me know that I don't really care, so if I want something ... I have some devious reason for wanting it. In this case? It's so that despite the last six weeks of enormity clocked, come January 10 ...the region is normal ... probably above normal seasonal snow fall... Between November's thing, the 3rd's 4-6" and a solution like that... one probably nearing a foot... Delicious - Aw ratz ... 06z doesn't have it... shouldn't have got all hoped up with kleenex and tissue paper

Off the top of my head Euro head - 1 ... agree with your sentiments re trend, however ... 2 ... moving forward, it still appears to conserve too much mechanical power in the ejection/egress through the western Tennessee Valley frames. It is sloped positively a little along that front side. The physical processing should when trying to circular saw that gyre into an impressive ridge. The surrounding synoptic medium offers an easier way if/when atoning for tendency to hold back too much weight. 3 ... it was sort of doing better on the 12z run yesterday. That may not be what one wants to hear, because undoubtedly ...they're now set to remembering that run's blithe face smacking solution. However, if the model is too conserved (again)... and the mechanics are in situ backed off a little, it can take an appeasing N track into the E. Mind you ...I'm not saying Great Lakes or anything... Going with our local vernacular ...this couldn't be a better definition of a "needle threader" 4 ... the whole of this solution is so warm (in part) because it has so much mid level power, owing to this stream of reasoning. A slightly less conserved total evolution foists less warm air ... That all might parlay (upshot) in a colder use of a marginal atmosphere. ... as though all that were not enough .. There are other non-zero possibilities, I for one am just not sure ... Namely one, the SE ridge could in the process of attenuating for losing the supersynoptic foundation... This thing getting ejected east in the first place .. .it really is a signal that something is changing, because all this impulse is, is the the remnant western trough anchor point that's being quasi cut off and ejected E ...That doesn't happen unless there is a paradigm hiccup booting it out of the SW ...how profound that turns out to be, notwithstanding... By the way, said shift is pretty clearly underway toward the end of that run. The flow is relaxed(ing) markedly post D7 ...and by 10...it's a prelude to 60 N blocking nodes as well a less gradient overall. With plenty of cold air, that's all a prelude to increasing cyclogen