Typhoon Tip

I think halving it's value just since May is quick relative to that range its self... I mean 14 to 7, with one month in there where it dropped from 14 to 10.. I don't know if that means it can't flop to +2 than -1 soon enough is all. I don't know how fast that is as typical behavior goes - no, but I said it "seems"

Huh... I thought the easterly phase had already set in. Could of swore I read that somewhere... Well, in any case, the solar minimum stuff is strongly correlated with SSW, too. And seeing as the QBO is in the process of differentiating negative, that may be just as suggestive/important on that side of the contribution... I just just checked ESRL and it's 7 and change in October, having dropped from 14/May... It seems it's quelling off pretty quickly. The other thing we may want to consider is "thresholds" - I've read countless times that positive phase implies this and negative phase implies that. Point being, +7 doesn't appear to be "strong" comparing the billions of months in that file where 1/3 of them are over (+)(-)15; I'm just wonder if strength in either phase correlate differently.

Meh...we could run through the same look in December really - ... the label of "december" doesn't really mean anything physically. I'm always a little puzzled when people say 'wait till this happens in January' - cuz, guess what? It would look exactly like this, in January. It's really situation to situational... Does the system have cold or not to work with. In this case, it does...more so than folks may be aware. The problem - as is/was just very beautifully exemplified by this recent 12z GFS - is wave interference not allowing any one S/W embedded in that total L/W evolution to become dominant enough, where other cyclogenic parameters would take over. This GFS run is a comical venture in how to systemically waste all potential - amazing... lol. It's got like five S/W now... seems every run since Tuesday is adding another f'n S/W for this L/W to host. The Euro should be interesting. It's has a couple runs over the last few that were more conserved around one S/W and more developed concomitantly with that being the case. It's got "smoothing" schemes built into it with that whole 4-D variable celebrity thing it's got goin' on there. So we'll see if it's trending one way or the other.

I'm not familiar with that site -no .. .However ( and this is no judgement ) just on the surface there, it's stuff I've read heavily about in my own fascination and curiosity over the years. I begin discussing and writing posts, replete with cited sources and annotation of various this that and other ... very paper-like, 10 some years ago back in the early days of internet weather-related forumsphere. Talking 2004 ... really. I understand much of this in concept, up to the point where any further would require dropping out of the mainstream employment circuitry and seeking another career through higher education - which I'm not going to do haha. Anyway, what that means is just that potential temperature increases or falls while starting from a given sigma level, the starting PV=NRT variables have to be changing in order to change the adiabatic surface 'potential'. The temperature and/or pressure is usually the case in SSW phenomenon -

And it actually looks ( when tracing these wave spaces back across the N-E pacific basin in the various guidance .. ) as though there may be three wave spaces in contention mucking up the works in that general baggage L/W migration. One thing that sticks out to me in this on-going monitoring/assessment effort for that period is that the L/W circumvallate is getting more intense over all, with gradients and wind mechanics. Eventually, if that continues .. that will play into resolving this maybe. It will limit the weaker wave's ability to express forcing ..and than that would feed-back in allowing which ever one is dominate to be that much more conserved. Fascinating... But that's a storm potential in there in my opinion... either way. It's a matter of amplitude and temporal-spatial, as well as placement ... but, I think the active regime is higher confidence in itself.

This is sort of coming out of left field ... but, I'm curious what the stratosphere -tropospheric monitoring is going to unfold like over the next month. We are passing mid autumn. In my research of this subject matter over the years, if there is going to be an earlier season sudden warming event, typically by the last two weeks of November, there are signs in the temperature monitoring, where there are small positive anomaly masses that start popping off in the 5 to 30 hPa sigma levels over upper stratosphere - sort of foreboding warnings that one is nearing, however they are related notwithstanding. This year, so far, nadda... it is early, so not seeing them empirical to date may be understandable. I am however. a little surprised we are not seeing them at least modeled to do so - the next two weeks will be interesting to monitor. Particularly because ... This would seem to be a favorable season for SSW phenomenon. Both the easterly phase of the QBO, combined with the antecedent solar minimum on-going through the summer months into early autumn should have left a lot of ozone and other atmospheric thermal trapping aerosols intact relative to solar max normals ( which extinguish more of these due to interaction with UV radiation fluxing). Both the QBO easterly phase, and the solar minimum, correlate with +SSW anomalies. So, it almost seems intuitive to me - anywho - that we should see an "anxious" column in the stratosphere, and earlier warm nodes in temperature begin to formulate over these next two to three weeks - which is consistent with other active years going back to 1979. Everything is really flat. The GEFs modelling at all sigma levels, right out to 240 hours, show zero modulation of warming burst behavior. Nor are there wind anomalies in the u-component, so there's less retrograde associated with terminating WAA at high latitudes/altitudes - which may be the problem... I think as of Novie 15, in a season such as this, with strong QBO and solar min correlations leading, we really should be seeing more warm nodes but if the circulation of the hemisphere is failing to terminate planetary waves up N, there may not be any way to deliver warmth into the stratosphere's favorable thermal layout - interesting. Just to remind folks... Sudden Stratospheric Warming is pretty much exactly what that says... Rather abruptly, a warm plume of air gets detected. This plume of air usually goes on to do one of two behaviors: comes in and out of detection as it rotates around the axis of the mean PV at earth curvature altitudes ( ha ); does the same thing, however, begins "down-welling" toward the lower levels/tropopause. The latter is necessary for correlation with -AO forcing - which is a lengthier explanation on how/why that is the case. But, there is a time lag of about 20 to 30 days. If the plume descends in altitude and interacts with the tropopausal depths, that whole process takes a couple of weeks to complete, and as the statistics over the years of monitoring show, -AOs were 21+ days in the making. If we look at the past years..there are plenty of warm plumes that suddenly materialized, but did not descend in this typical down-welling behavior... So the actual down-welling is important in the total correlation model.

Everybody's a troll involved in this social media platform in their own inimitable way .. heh. Yeah, the idea of a blue bomb is still on the table - if anyone cares for lucid, intellectual discussion on the matter. As we covered yesterday, these typically do this in guidance, this behavior where they look +1 to +3 C too warm at this range, but then the guidance' shave fractions of degrees over subsequent run cycles, while establishing an isothermal synoptic profile around the NW-W limbs of the cyclonic evolution. It can happen any time but it's more typical autumn and sprind behavior. This is doing exactly that ... whether it parlays into what folks want ( snow ), or falls just short, both circumstances are definitely within realm of possibilities. But the idea of a cake and glop can't be logically ruled out just yet. As we also covered yesterday, the biggest problem right now is the destructive wave interference that is ubiquitous across all guidance types. This is still true in both dependable vs non-dependable fringe guidance types. The 12z and 18z operational GFS runs from yesterday, particularly the latter of the two, were placing more of the emphasis on the 2nd wave in the total bag of L/W progression through the E - very similar actually to the 00z Euro interestingly enough. Then of course the GFS being the GFS, the 00z and 06z have turn-coated on that thinking and abruptly begun favoring the lead "hook low" .. (which frankly looks over done either way, but definitely f's up everything no matter what way one looks at it). That all said, I'm not sure I'm willing to hand over the conductor's truncheon to the Euro and let it lead the way from D6/7, either. Because A .. this model, far superior to the GFS as it is, is not actually that much better than the GFS at this particular time range ( regardless of y'alls Lord of Flies popularity schemes). Inside of D 5 ... yes, sure. As an aside, when I was recently making fun of Kevina, I deliberately overly-stated ( solely for the intent of pissing him off and it worked! ) that the GFS schooled the Euro. To clarify, what actually took place is that both models were abysmal in the D6/7 time lead, regarding an O.C.D. monitoring effort collectively applied to an innocuous piece-of-shit fropa. That was two events ago. At the time, the Euro was depicting a stem-wound juggernaut bomb just E of the arm of the Cape; meanwhile, the GFS was flat and pancaked-progressive with the flow - it barely cobbling together just a weak low it rocketed utterly inconsequentially seaward across the SW Atlantic Basin WSW of Bermuda. That disparity lasted for oh ..a couple three cycles say. But, at around D5, the GFS suddenly sniffed out the polar/arctic boundary and the wave along it, as it unzipped NW of the area. The model was scheduling our SNE and eastern NE regions to be tortured in a rotted polar warm sector - which of course... the model f'n nails that! The Euro, however, was lagging in there. That's when and where the "schooling" ( in the relative sense ) took place, as it was still vestigially trying to hold onto a Kleenex and lotion solution, which it should have abandoned. It wasn't long after, tho. By early on the D4 cycles, the Euro caught on and from that point forward, they more than less depicted the same shit from about 60 to 72 hours lead, held serve, and destiny was righteously occurred and the Universe didn't cease to exist because no one got snow. ( See how that works?) I don't think realistically that ordeal would or should really hurt the Euro street cred. I bet it doesn't really even show up in the verification curves either. It was just an isolated oddity in model performance, one that happened recently and just so by the love of god for the purpose of lambasting Kevin. I would still nod to the Euro as the better prognostic tool in more situations than not, particularly time frames < 5 days. I do submit in better honesty that the Euro is dicey beyond D5 just as the models all are; I really am not sure if over our quadrature of the World, it really is all that much better than any other guidance types at D7 in a straight up comparison - I don't know. I don't bother looking because ... just common existentialism with it, I've seen the model dump enough solutions at D7 to know it's just not dependable enough at that range so who cares. Which...holy shit.. We're at D7 now. Anyway, if the models come around to damping out the lead interfering wave, that 2nd one becomes dominant, then the deeper 18z GFS/00z Euro runs have better hope of transpiring. And then it's layered correction vectoring, because "if" that happens, then we can start figuring for the isothermal sounding to become more 0 C -like as the event nears. Seeing as few things have to go right ... gotta put the over all odds of satisfaction potential as being higher for blue ballz rather than blue bomb for now. Who knows..

You're behind the times bro - it was flat out pointed out empirically with charts by your's truly. And that I should have to say this ... concurred by other meteorologists. It did everything of the sort and you are flat wrong

It just schooled the Euro two events in a row while you were apparently in a coma - from this range, too... Plus, the Euro isn't all that far from this solution, which if you bother to ever actually read anything, I expanded on that twice earlier in the day.

So that's a whopper Noreaster there on the 18z GFS ... It's probably close enough at this point to figure much of the QPF is slush and blue urinal cake. It's clearly cold enough at 850 mb and given those parametric layouts there's no way that's just rain on the west arc/limb of that sucker's circulation... You're probably talking the blue bomb proper on that run. There's just one small caveat tho - it's the GFS...

I wrote about the D7-9 stuff at length a couple pages ago..

No .. I don't think that's cynical at all. I think that's a fair observation. Truth is, there is a reason these early cold snaps are becoming more common year to year. And, guess what? It's more than merely plausible. It has to do with the Pacific thermal ridge/bulge, combined with a permanent geographical circumstance that relates to the orientation of the N/American continent with respect to the west-to-east prevailing winds. Both cause ..or favor, NW flow in western Canada without the help of one another, as a rest/base-line tendency. The rest state of the Perennial North American Pattern features a mountain bulge, a flat ridge, the axis of which is collocated roughly with the Rockies cordillera ( Canada to Mexico).. Immediately down wind of this mean ridge there is a flattening out of the flow that is arguable a coupled trough. That is the geographically induced circulation mode. In present era of Pacific thermal surplus - particularly as we near the autumn and entry times to the cold season - that bulge combines with the ever present geographically induced ridge; superimposition over one another sort of "synergistically" enhances NW flows over western North America. That constructive wave interference than lends to tapping cold earlier and delivering it south toward N/A middle latitudes. As far as Gaia, that was more for science-fiction? A thought experiment. Muse out loud if you will. Though it's an intriguing premise for a book, don't you think? You know what it really hearkens to? I hearkens to the crashing airliner narrative, about how the moment of the accident is actually the end result of a series of events set into motion ... sometimes years in advance as forensics eventually piece together. It's just that with so many moving parts in the machinery of this planets biosphere and all the dependencies and delicate bandwidths of adaptation that need to remain stable, it gets to be so complex that its easier to just refer to it as Gaia. But, the geographic layout of our planetary interface with the prevailing N.H.wind ... causing slightly cooler variance over N/A as far as the GW we experience here, was like the plain wreck... That part of it formulated 10,000,000 years ago. Or if you really want to get outre with it, maybe Gaia set all this up back then.

Take away the provisional access eases of this bubble-illusion of security, post Industrial Revolution, and you'll change your mind real, real quick. Right around day three of having eaten lawn grass - But I appreciate your seeing the hypocrisy of the latter, too.

I think the key is to either rid or devote to one of those in that double wave structure of that L/W migration through the E late in the mid/ext range. This isn't an issue in the GGEM or the Euro or the GFS ... it's endemic to all of them. And there's a small bit of destructive wave interference there.. If either becomes dominant, would be better for storm enthusiasts. Either way, the profile has cooled again ... that encouraging. At mere fractions but you can see that latter of the two systems is now cold enough to blue-job the region...albeit the low has deepened slightly too far E in the GFS - a distinction hardly worth concerning over at D7/8 range. There's something to definitely watch in there. There is a presentation of it in some form or the other in most of the ensemble members of these model types. It's also timed well with this run-around MJO phased 8-1-2 that's been in the progs in all guidance envelopes for days. It's interesting how that is the case, and in the last two days or so, the lost -EPO is transitioning into more of a +PNA look - I think someone mentioned that earlier? I'm just not sure a moderate strength MJO is actually forcing "as much" as it would in DJFM ..because of the Hadley Cell expansion issue. If that's relaxed though, leverage away. Be that as it may, the +PNAP structure is there regardless.

Ten hours. Super massive stars that begin fusing Hydrogen into Helium during their early lives, will burn so hot and furiously through their Hydrogen mass that within just a few million years they will begin fusing the Helium they have created, into heavier elements. This goes onward, each cycle faster than the predecessor, because the energy produced by fusion of these increasingly heavier elements adds more and more energy to the nucleosynthesis process, thus speeding it up. Once the star begins fusing Silicon into Iron ...that's the end of the line. BOOM. That fusion into Iron at the core is the end of the line because it takes more energy than is provisionally in place left over from the previous nucleosynthesis processes to fuse Iron into heavier elements such Gold ..etc. The star no longer is producing additional energy thus begins to lose thermal pressure, and can no longer withstand its own incredible gravity. The core collapses... When that collapsing mass hits the neutron density being created by compressing protons and electrons together ( the creating of a neutron star associated with ~ 8 solar mass stars or > ), it rebounds in a horrific explosion called a Super Nova. Here is the fascinating part. Because the star is so large, that process of core implosion to 'Nova, takes time - on the order of ten hours. In that time, the outside observer sees the star as burning normally. It's really quite literally as though the outside spherical envelope of the star its self, is a dead man walking. A corpse unaware... that it's heart beat has ceased, and has no idea about the the shock wave about to annihilate from below. When I read articles like this: https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/13/europe/insect-apocalypse-report-scn/index.html I am driven to the above primer; where humanity, and perhaps a lot of other species to go along with, may be living and breathing, and carrying on in their existence as though quite metaphoric with that above theme, having no idea ( or in our case, vaguely..). There are so many moving parts to the climate change catastrophe, and it is absolutely a catastrophe. So few are aware, or could even begin to conceptualize the immense inter dependencies of the entire biological system. We read about polar bear habitats. Sea level rises.. Droughts and heat waves. And we think we got it? As commoners, we don't even know the 1% of it. As scholars and scientists, we don't know the half. But as we burn and carry on in our ways and means, in a lot of ways it is as though we are symbolically existing through our final, proverbial ten hours.

This is blue bomb time of the year, however ... and I wouldn't ever consider a D7 to D8 threat with any sense of immutability. This happens in March and April, too. Mid and extended range systems will often materialize in runs as marginal-warm. But as they system nears .. assuming it's real and is going to happen of course, the models nick 10th of a degree off the 850 mb thermal layout, and it starts to morph marginal-cool over subsequent runs. What was once +1 to +3C ... ends up -1 to +1C at 850 mb. The other aspect is that because there is no cold source below the 700 mb and the system is mostly mid level mechanics, the sounding tends to be 'isothermal' below 850 mb... So if it is 0 C at 850 in a coastal system that is east, that NW arc of the circulation envelope and cyclonic influence will tend to be 0 C at all sigma levels right plumb to the deck. You end up big aggregate at 33 F ... and so on and so on, from an originally modeled +3 C, 850 mb miller A rainer. This system next week strikes me as possibly of that ilk. Have to monitor it. Because, already we are seeing some of that model modulation toward cooler profiles by the Euro and GGEM... very slight, run after run of erosion. Two days ago, they were hinting at this miller A as warmer circulation comparing to now - and the game's afoot. We'll see.

Heh... I think cold's interesting though. I think hot's interesting too. There are synoptic events associated to either that are identifiable, particularly when either is extreme/challenge climatology over a region - and then adding time spans to those unusual cold or hot periods underscores the value, that uniquely convergent parameters have circumstantially come together to engender either. It's kind of like synergy on the ocean and this 'rogue wave' phenomenon? Think about it that way for a moment. You have this active sea-surface with an average swell height of 24' ...then, due to wave mechanics, suddenly the ocean becomes devoid of 24' swells in a vicinity .. in lieu of one giant wave toppling some 70' out of seeming nowhere. There are events in the atmosphere that are sort of metaphoric of that phenomenon - in fact, maybe more than merely metaphoric considering. In either the oceanic or atmospheric cases, there is a kind of gestalt where the results appears more than than the sum of their constituent parts. The 'Super storm 1993' event was an atmospheric rogue wave. The 1995 and 2012 heat waves in the Midwest were also positive feed-back scenarios where components came together uniquely. The Cleveland Super Bomb and perhaps the one later that year here along the New England coast, were examples of synergy, too. I can remember some some cold waves that were truly memorable. Heck, the entire February 2015 multi-storm assault... some of which blew wind and carried about in single digit cold over the NE U.S. was rather rogue-ish. Heat and cold waves have their place. They are identifiable. They are impacting. But this is a very rational opine - obviously we all have our personal druthers, which seldom reflect the purely rational frame of mind, to put it nicely. From a purely scientific perspective however, I think it's interesting that it's 10 to 18 F across the region prior to Thanks Giving - it opens the door to a whole spectrum of questions related to climate and climate change. Lot's of room for discovery.

Better than what ... ha November had -EPO loaded cold waves and at least chances - that's lucky to get that far this early. We should be so lucky in December, relative to that month. I think expectations were/are set a little high if folks are disappointed by a November with -20 C tappable and pervasive in Canada, and at least a favorable beginnings - so it didn't snow prodigiously in November. Holy hell the humanity. 'Course I don't know what the aft pages of that discussion were so ...

zero flakes seen in Shrewsbury Mass...

The MJO is quite robustly signalling +PNAP pattern should evolve over the N/American continent, particularly in the GEFs .. .but the EPS mean-based prognostics are within comparable similarity, too - just not slightly as. Either way, the two together is a destructive wave interference for the flatter look featuring SE ridging out in time, so correcting to relaxed flow in the SE may have some footing. It may be that some part of this lost -EPO is in the process of reconstructing around a +PNA ... and yes there is a disconnect at times in the EPO and PNA domain spaces. But if the former is true, than pretty much all operational synoptic charts related to D7-12 from the last two to three days were probably fallacious. "IF" we'll see.. Because there's also some question about the MJO's ability to force considering it isn't abundantly clear whether the wave's mechanics are tapping into the mid latitudes due to that HC -related expansion. Similar to why modest warm(cool) ENSO are having increasingly difficulties observing coupled atmospheric states in recent seasons. interesting -

Oh ...geez, I missed the statement in the beginning - yeah, I guess what's relevant to them.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ice-refuge.html

I think it's interesting that these excerpts have an over-arching theme of monetary this and that, and how it will effect commerce ... And guess what? Money means nothing in nature. Nor, to climate change's ability to dwindle species survivability - yes, that includes the conceit of humanity, a fragility that will be exposed. Is this narrative - money vibe some manipulation of the audience? I mean, considering... it is an audience that cannot connect with anything unless they are impacted in their wallets, it's an understandable device. It's the only way to get them to pay attention and take this shit seriously.

I'm less than entirely familiar with the specifics of Australian climatology ... other than exposure to outback heat and dry cinema portrayed through science channel this, or old movie that.. I think it interesting that they are only in their spring .. which concomitantly means, the higher hotter sun and air potential looms, and it seems at a very simple level of consideration that this cannot project very favorably that this is happening this early.

Agreed ... Quantum Field theorists can contemplate the IQ of God, yet ... "Meteorologism" has no f'n clue how to assess whether 6" on a cold measuring board is going to mean the same thing on a sidewalk and street that day. It's a matter of priorities like everything, I suppose. But geez, one might think time and energy would be pragmatically expended polishing those definitions and applications .. considering snow's efficacy has a direct physical/environmental impact. Buuut, considering the societal endowment for capital ambition is a total roll-up value in the trillions, while babies are dying from diseases that have millions devoted to researching cures, perhaps it's understandable from this particular species. We deserve our plight ... this climate change shit is going to cause at minimum a limited scale apocalypse - anyone that doesn't know or suspect that is either in denial or incredible f'ing stupid and [ most likely ] default line-toeing and contributing hugely to making that happen. Which ... is 97 percent of all people.