Typhoon Tip

Mm... I wouldn't be presuming anything has be after January's first week - don't have to look far for the advisability of doing that, this winter storm ( hello ) happening in an utter dearth of antecedent teleconnector suggestion. Jesus - That said, ...yeeeah, it's looking pretty bleak if one employs the American indices ( ha). Ugh. In fact, winter over. Haven't seen a signal that bad since the infamous early January of 2007... That said, the D6-10 EPS would argue for a better winter appeal over the U.S.. not sure how well that is teleconnected to the rest of the hemisphere, but that's a very cold look at 240 in that blended mean. The operational not really being an extreme outlier, is actually a sign that the signal may be potent - if perhaps counter intuitive. The impetus being, the mean is always banal compared to the individual member so not seeing that means the weight/correction vector may be toward more amplitude. anyway, it's not as discouraging as the American cluster is all. Huh ...but just looking at the CDC my god. You'd have think the ensemble system is just f'ed up and broke, and needs to be emptied and reset or something. Hard to believe every domain space is biased the same direction - that's really almost pushing physics.

The 18z NAM offers up 0 or < 0 C at every sigma level from 800 mb down to the tarmacs for Logan during the first 12 to 18 hours of this thing. That's a tick down by some, and it now is even colder than the shaved .5 C Euro at this point. And if it were not [ probably? ] for an obscenely elevated warm layer, that would be probably 5" of snow in that QPF realization, prior to ZR intrusion. If not, than folks thinking sleet are in for surpriiiiise. I'm also noticing a fairly potent IB signaled in there, too, with 9.2 units of UVM during the front work - not bad! Before quells into a more middling lift on-going saturation, but by then we are soaring at 800 to 4 or 5+ C so that's sleet and ZR most likely at least to that latitude over eastern zones. In the interior, this sags by some..how much is now cast-able. But I would suggest that is also offset by the fact that this is warmer WNW of ORH in this type of synoptic ordeal...with essentially what amounts to a powerful BD advection coming in around a third of the way through, a marginal cold rain/ice/IP situation profiles downward and becomes non-liquid in character at that point in time. It's likely IP in ALB while snowing at the east end of the Mohawk Trail for a stint during the band of instability burst. Overall, after brief snow, looks like mid or upper 30s southwest of HFD where cold rain and a few pings, to low 30s/30 down rt 2 with IP and mangled aggies, while it may be heavy IP/noodles at Logan. Then everyone is over to IP NE, as we convert this to a moderate infrastructure ice concern ( more?) as said NE thrust arrives and probably sends a wave of crashing DP /temp deep into CT/RI underneath ongoing WAA way above. That's what this looks like to me, and even the higher res mesos will under do that fantastic static stability/BL forcing of having a newly fresh polar +PP wedging in like this. It's just going happen this way I feel. If not... oh well - otherwise consider one's self warned. I'd say if anything warning would be met near that interface of IP and accretion where fall rates and temperature combine for proficiency. Where it is snow/IP around Manchester NH, may be high end advisory - until later periods when coastal evolution may enhance a temp CCB in that region up through coastal Maine.... It's tough sending headlines when you got storm acting seamless across different intervals. Heh... pun intended, it's like "the cloud" storm.

That's an interestingly discrete attempt by the finer meshed meso model type, to assess elevation/ridges and hills being high enough to poke over the blanket of BD'ing cold drain like that. But, I bet that's error ...not so much for that handling - valleys most certainly will be the last to scour out...but, because the uber finite grid is local scaled and is probably not seeing the total weight/potential of the +PP over eastern Ontario - modulate this product for more mass input would be my suggestion and that probably submerges those 1800' hill tops in the cold slab. But also, give the model a chance ... I can't imagine a scenario where a 48+ hour forecast is really in any NAM-derivative's wheelhouse. It may get that low level cold slab thicker in time.

Ironically... if perhaps for my own lapse of communication, I am not disagreeing with antecedent air mass point. Altho..we are getting DP recession now, and it's deep-ish'er in the atmosphere than folks may think, based purely upon the absolutely stunning sensible appeal out there right now - hope you guys actually appreciate. Beautiful out there...my goodness. Anyway, we shouldn't be fooled by the appeal - this is a new CAA and typical in overnight fropas, the CAA lags during the morning, so we probably won't know or get a sense to the skin what this is like until the sun kisses the horizon and it gets tit-nipply fairly quickly. It may sound 'bush' to rely on that but ...heh, sometimes it helps to be kissed by the girl to believe she digs you. As far as this system: the details show ... there are pressure rises happening, particularly in the Euro you can see this ( perhaps the 24 hour freebie intervals in a twist, actually helps elucidate this phenomenon), over Maine about 1/3rd (~) of the way into the event. When that happens I promise people...there will be a pulse of ageostrophic acceleration taking place E of the mean elevation curve of the Berks-White Mountain cordillera. That is going to impart the lower DP air and that's it - game over Now, this is based upon the total synoptic players in the models ... which by that bold italic is thus predicated on the assumption that they are oh ...80% correct in the totality of this thing's evolution. If these structural components verify to distractingly ...then we gotta field a bunch of miss-guided criticisms I know -

Know what'd be cool.. ? I'd like to see an accurate ( no doubt, someone now is going to either miss the adjective 'accurate,' or think accurate applies to them, and level cran-up drawing of it at us now...) reanalysis of the 1920's ice storm that occurred to historic proportions in SNE. I'm pretty sure substantive icing took place right to the coast in that one. I've read weather-science 'attempted' accounts and they did speak of having a polar high over eastern Ontario - at least in some semblance, that specific part rings a bell.

Not sure I agree there... It'll be interesting to case this one and see ... I bet you there is even a pseudo-tendency for a CF ...not super discrete, but amorphous? Such that you'll find that once the barrier sets ups, the atmosphere will use it to drain the pressure discontinuity from D.E.M ...which is being fed by a near stationary "fresh" cold source of +PP N of Maine ...and, it will not be impeded by any east flow ... The other aspect is that even if the wind did turn more E and punch enough warmth clear to western Middlesex County, which has never happened under these circumstances...the air mass arriving on that trajectory is not "stagnated" oceanic air - it's also curvilinearly coming from that same cold source up there... That matters thermodynamically in subtle ways. I mean, these are my experience as a Met growing up in eastern Massivetwoshits over the last 35 years of my life... Now, that does not attest as to the quality and fulfillment of that life, ..just the weather-related peregrinations it has offered along the humiliating, crushingly lonely journey

I think so out in the farther SW burbs of Boston too... but that's just me - agreed in general ...

Well... yeah, if the situation should ever arise where that is more clearly likely, they probably would ... plus, when it is time to do so. Neither of which is now - you do realize that NWS typically does not issue warnings for 3rd and 4th period events save for rare scenarios? ... just checkin' But for now 1/2" of accretion does not look like a slam dunk for you ...sorry.

They should go with a watch " a little " farther south and east of present, with the perfunctory AFD statement/turn of phrase included that southern and eastern zones will likely be converted to Advisories, but we'll hold off Advisories for now, as a good bit of this event will be taking place in the 4th period... or words to that affect. So, no - not what you're glorifying

This was an ice storm look since D8 lol... but yeah. I'm looking at ALB's NAM grid and the model's capping a +5C 800 mb layer over an isothermal 0C temperature curve ... over eastern NY ?! zomb... Meanwhile, the Euro ...being inside D4 mind us, is showing rising fresh, new, polar high pressure atmospheric cold mass into D.E.M. ... Btw, given the synoptic indicators ... NWS will need to expand that watch all the way to I-95 over eastern zones...probably down into N RI at some point. It is unclear why they have not included those areas anyway, other than - I guess - trying to out-think the models, but I suspect more likely there is a dearth of local studies/climatology unique to this region, scaffolding their forecast philosophy. When there are big, fresh, new polar highs arriving/wedging from eastern Ontario, such as that that's being indicated by the most trustworthy guidance at this particular time range... mmm, I read their discussion to be fair, and frankly it does not translate like they are self-reliant in the 'existential' concepts, and more so like they sought consensus with surrounding offices - which I'm sure is protocol and is fine. But it's interesting that with a bigger of pool of brains in that discussion, one would think one of those mind-pans would have instructed a hand-waving, and honed the concepts of ageostrophy/"barrier jets" and that there is less likely an E turning of the wind at the surface Sunday night. good luck! I could be wrong, ...and it's probably a tedious critique ...considering no one outside this social media will ever be made aware this missive was composed...and, we don't matter, and, no one gives a shit anyway... But for the virtue of wasting my time, I felt it worth to mention

Well yeah. Lol. Not withstanding the NAM.

That’s not what’s happening in that solution tho. No high retreat - in fact its stall is partial in why that secondary is getting pinned s of LI

Wouldnt it be interesting if the models just started converting this more and more to a coastal as we get into near terms

wow that’s headed for quite the protracted event in that NAM solution. 84 hrs the ice/sleet converts to a coastal just getting going

meh... tick warmer all fields...but yeah, it's noise. I like pushin the buttons and testing the sensitivities - I'm disappointed there wasn't more hate thrown my way for saying that actually... You guys are letting me down

GFS tries to go back warm... No posts - God I love the sweep it under the rug culture.

Not intending this as a testament to the NAM's correctness in handling matters but ...that's pretty impressive how it parks that H NNE of Maine and for 24 to 30 hours, then moves it 0 while waves of QPF hose hammer at it from the OV right over over us. If you want to run an ice storm ...that's really how you get it done. Suppose for a second it's closer to reality - some may even see more sleet and snow...they may. But, where that goes ZR you could be talking light to moderate steady falls at 29 to 31 F, with a constant feed of lower DP air on an endless supply of ageo jet to make sure you don't survive - Jesusyikes... I'm hoping here along Rt poopie that if this cold high scenario ( ala Euro even ) is right, we are deep enough in it to bee-bee accumulate 2.5" rather than accreting 1" of power sag

Lol, I meant in snow - come on... altho NE is a big region I'm not sure what it's doin' up in Maine exactly -

it's funny ... this is completely the wrong thread to mention this, but there is a tenor in this social media that's acting as though we should be suffering some form of winter abandonment - which, ...WRONG. We are above normal Dec climo - if people need to guide their sense of happiness based on constant diet of some metaphoric dystopian cryo-horror drug like a junky that can't get to the better high, than you're just f'n nuts. You're in a great goddamn winter until further f'n notice. Deal with it. hahaha wow

Yup... this is exactly. right this is that, incarnate I think - I mean you can see how the Euro has the 850 mb 'bending' back suddenly toward White Plains and N. NJ around 84 hours in there. I don't think that's saturation/wet-bulbing doing that ..tho some perhaps. Anyway, as that is happening you can see the high pressure is slipping a bit SE of the GFS' beady -eyed obsessive warm intrusion scenario... and the Euro just fits climo and frankly, experience. We'll see..

That's the way to run those... Not to get into it but personally? I'm not a fan ... The specter of it has it's place, but the novelty pales compared to no power. It's just not worth it...really. Keep it spectral please -

This looks like a candidate for a pulse of cold about 1/3 or 1/2 of the way thru the event's total time table .. give or take. Without that, it'd be a cold rain with some pings that ends as wet snow, modulated for N-S thru region(s). However, what the American models are hinting, the foreign models appear more discerned, and that's that a pulse of colder air arrives and changes that illustration. If/when that happens, ice. And of course, precise timing, and precise magnitude of any such arrival dictates the amounts therein. Nothing new per climate... we've seen this countless times in the past. At some point ... a wave of cold comes in from the NNE/NE from interior Maine and there's a bit of a 925 mb level modest jet of air that probably isn't modeled with the best coherency as such but happens nonetheless... And it drills this into southern NH and eventually ...this cuts in underneath the Easterlies on-going that are on the N side of the warm front. Which by the way...ain't goin' no where The mid and upper level synoptic forcing that is the cause for elevated surface pressure pattern around the NE arc of the total cyclonic aspect, is fully integrated. That boundary approaches central Jersey and it's game over. Whatever flow of air from the south that attempts to incur upon that surface ridging is going do one of two things: go over it; flow around it. It doesn't matter exactly what the temperature is in the air mass on the polarward side of the front in this case, though cold air does add viscosity and some resistance alone. More specifically, the Euro ( and somewhat in the GGEM) we see the high pressure contouring sliding a bit more SE in eastern Ontario than the American cluster - that's an important distinction out there around 84 hours ... Personally I feel in this situation and considering climo, the American models are suspect in this case. But not every set up like this does that "tuck" routine ...and, if that were not enough, we've seen tucking succeed, and drill the temps back from 38F to 32.1 at times too. There's an opportunity for now-casting here ... This is an extremely stretched Miller B ...it's just so vastly so, that some would argue it isn't at all - also arguing because they have a narrow conception of these event types based upon idealized paradigms, and forget that those rules are meaningless ( really ..) in the atmosphere.. but I digress.. However, anytime we find antecedent +PP exerting BL resistance down the eastern side of the App's cordillera, which we do..., and you have a deep layer troposphere trough being squeezed more E of the Lakes as opposed to rotating up into Canada, ... which we do, we'll find a secondary. We do get the secondary to develop out of this mess, but it is paltry and weak because the - as said - the mechanics as stretched ... We could even call it a 'hybrid swfe/ Miller B too..

Perfect analysis! I was mentioning that to Will or Ray earlier about that "pixie growth" ...almost a secondary nucleation band under the deeper UVM aloft. Shit I've seen 1/4 mi vis in shards/shard clumps while in IP/ZR ... and what's weird is the dust dry? With ZR embedded... mess is what it is. The accreting ice kind of takes on a grayish hue to it... If it's mostly IP, that can be wicked as it pack/settles very dense at time of fall...so if you get anywhere close to 3" of that, it cretes

700 is more important for chilling down the growth region of the ambient sounding. I've seen it sleet from 8,000 feet before with a +4 wedge near Everest

12z Euro remains essentially unchanged in the general synoptic handling of the event in question... If there are detail differences they are noise most likely as the governing players are not really instructing enough demonstrative differences over the last run to assume a different surface evolution. Looks like a very tall sleet column between the Pike and Rt 2 ...with a band of some bad icing in the southern some-odd band of that... I also caution that cold will always wedge farther south than even the most "enthusiastic" hotdog vision too ... So, "IF" the present appeal works out.... ( thank god for the rest of us !) Kevin likely loses power ...