Typhoon Tip

Funny thing is... I remember a lot of bad winter calls in autumn. Ha, one case in point, The Farmer's Almanac. anyway, not including that one. But then this idea started convincingly abasing those calls given time...

I almost wonder if folks have been sort of looking at ENSO from the wrong direction - speaking of chicken and egg metaphor. It's QBO ... I suspect. I do think that something might be suppressing convection somewhere ... but, that means that oceanic-atmospheric coupled physical state may be less effective at transferring heat from SST to air... Heat accumulates and could be partial in forcing a warm state given time...

Meh... well written version of what we've hammered in here in a "myriad of peregrinations" Yeah... we know... SSW--> -AO is underway but the Pacific is fighting it .. check I agree that the QBO may (or not...) be limiting the total latent heat exhaust into the tropical forcing model... do to stress/shear being unfavorable for sustaining convention -

Ha ha... don't be too convinced by my snark - I'm actually trolling and having fun with it in the spirit of commiseration... I know "some" of that is true... at least for me... I used to get really down or up based upon weather channel screw ups when I was kid - that's how I know to recognize some of that going on in here as an adult. But it's pretty harmless either way... I think I'd rather have people be "strung out" over a fubar modeling era than the same way over a Fentanyl

I don't think there's much phasing at all there D's 8 thru 10 of that run... Timing -wise? yeah...they tend to move through the same longitudes together... but they are really bipassing and not "fusing" into one another ...which is really what phasing means. So not even in the partial sense, is that very true with this solution. Look at D10 ...the southern component of the total wave space parts company and starts diving S toward the outer Bahamas...while the northern component rips away toward NS... See ya' ! Which by the way... that solution looks weird anyway... I almost think the flow has gotten so velocity saturated that even the Euro is having difficulty but... what am I saying - oy. It's D9/10

you know ... if you take the 24 hour panel, ...amplified the shit out of it... you'd end up with something eerily similar to the D9 panel... that is pattern persistence incarnate... Moreover, you could argue based upon the Euro's native bias complexion...that it's too amplified perhaps some... so what - we end up right back her in a week staring at the same damn scenario. This is really turning into a spectator's Schadenfreudeian dream - muah hahahaha

nah... don't read in. that's all assholier than thou bs intended for trollic commiseration.

haha... That was all sardonic snark just in case... Yeah, I mean... I do agree that loading cold into Canada is good... I said that earlier... I'll say it again... having -20 C at 850 slabbed over the continent, with periodic -30 C plumes rattlin' around inside isn't a bad table setting.. no.. But, I'd like to see the gradient relax ...a little. It certainly is a tantalizing look having the hornet sting ready to roll through southern California mid way through the Euro run though... But the GFS had that two.. and ended up having to smear it into an ice storm...

guys... really... you drift. You seem to acknowledge inherent limitations and detraction ...then, an hour later, creep back in and get enthusiastic euphoria tenors going ... like spontaneously. ha. wow. I get it... life is boring for many. They put stock in this shit because of the mystery of dystopian awe and all that is intriguing and gives a kind of high that fills said voids in many way ... and one gets addicted to that. So these models don't show it...and the loss really does act like addictive withdrawal frenzied "carpet surfing" ...lookin' for nuganshards in the model. that's hilarious. Unfortunately, it's going to take longer than an hour to change the outlook appreciably... Just some advice - wouldn't take much stock in GEFs anything. And I admit ...some of that is my personal opinion based upon 'too much gradient' and so forth. But this trend suffered for canceling prospect has been stunningly proficient - what's the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result?? something like that... I for one choose sanity and I'm letting shit ride the rest of the way. I tell you ... most seasons I prematurely despise winter by Feb ~ 20th or so ... I may check out even before that if said trend proves supernatural rapey ... nice!

actually ... the GFS looks like a big icing event as a plausible correction for all that noise, too - go think ... D8 system agreed upon by the GGEM/GFS - ... lock 'er up!

The GGEM looks like a ginormous ice storm from White Plains NY to interior NE Ma/S NH

Not that I'm aware of.... It's interpretive mostly, but it's based upon a-priori experience combined with classical education. One could probably be designed based upon truer empirical statistical inference ...

Yeah as expected... it smears into the flow as an open wave ... which is fine. But keep in mind, that is a threader ..which inherently means less wiggle room. Kind of tough at this range to expect such details would even remotely ... oh man who cares. Check back in a day and half before go time on that piece of shit.

So that's an impressive wave coming thru the west D7.5 next week ... I'll maintain that if the general gradient saturation circumstance between SE Canada and Florida doesn't relax... that is an inherent negative interference pattern. Some part of that powerful mechanical presence in the flow can operate on the flow but unless the former relaxation take place, that thing will pay a huge absorption toll as it arrives.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00118.1

Mm... perhaps, but what I said is physically demonstrative... That could easily be a matter of sample sizes and noise causing that - we know by physical processes that it "takes time" to move momentum from one point in space to another. So ...in so far as what worth the conjecture has, it seems exceedingly unlikely - to me - that merely having a wave in Phase 8 --> snow in Boston

As a general caveat emptor ...added to the notion that the MJO gets too much attention/focus ... There is a time-lag. The effectiveness/influence-ability of any given wave doesn't concurrently exist in the pattern... the momentum takes time to distribute down wind. So I'm not sure what your conversation re this subject matter is/was leading to your post above ... but, "having a cutter during Phase 8" would almost be acceptable given that wave behavior above as it graphically passed through 5 and 6 mere days prior to that arc on the left hand side

I dunno... I tongue-in-cheeked it that February 2019 looked more like February 2015 than February 2015 looked like it would ever be a "February 2015" a month or so ago ... I'm starting to wonder if we should be pulling tongues back in from the cheeks on that. It may be totally by coincidence that things break more favorably in February - and in fact, ... that seems to follow logically anyway, because the leading indicators comparing both years, I don't think were all too similar. But, I think back to the other dearth years of my life ... none have really looked like more than enough cold, and ample supplies of available thermodynamic theta-e being in surplus leading to nothing - this would be a unique way of getting a bad winter done if it parlayed the rest of the way and I just tend to fall into odd's thinking on this... We could never establish a solidly identifiable "good" pattern and get mauled by accident with this utter powder keg of parameters 'poking the bear' the way it is. 2012-2013 is the worst winter which in my subjective opinion is actually in a dead heat tied with 1994-1995 ... both years had something in common that is not the same as this season... There were weak S/W's in dry continental circumstances that edged above normal much of the way. We may be above normal but we have more cold air around than those years. And we are definitely not dry at a continental scale.

We'll probably get dick through Feb 25th, then get four storms in three weeks at 20" a pop in March ... but, if you had not had your melt-down back circa the 17th ... the season would have blithely terminated to crocus shoots and cherry mocking blossoms. That's how this game is played ... making you look totally wrong when you were totally right... and making nimrods look like heroes.

Two schools here: one... you're likely reading a lot of content on the web that's conjecture ... which is about as valuable as what that implies. Even the most sophisticated grammar and parts of speech construction can come across as quite convincing ...and not be totally correct. This is then discovered by the author at some point along the way ... who then looks at the latest paper and/or meme of the day for the next BBD facet and then starts coining turns of phrase that sounds just as marvelous and awe-inspiring ... Until those prove faux ... But that 'shifting' focus is a lot of what you are (likely) sensing - buuuut, this is conjecture ... taken fwiw. two... this is an inexact science. Those who also can write and/or orate with convincing polish, if they are objective and honest, will tell you to focus on the qualifiers of their content... Those important 'colorization' that get ignored too easily by those that filter what is content, through the tint of biases for what the want to hear. Which is getting into a different phenomenon... But the point is, the ambit of the science probably really thought sincerely that the MJO was the whole cookie holy grail back in the 1990s... Now it seems to be the SSW stuff is popular... but there are those that hold onto the MJO with obsessive disregard for much else (apparently!) But during the whole way, this is an evolving science? So one should have a built in qualifier of expectations that fall shy of any certitude - obviously the focus shifts as the science evolves.

Yeah.. thx Nick! I'm aware of that and other specific local studies... I was sort of jumping into your conversation not knowing it's exact evolution..... wasn't sure if there was some other systemic correlations y'all were discussing. My thing is simple: The MJO won't correlate as well with expected verification, during eras when the leading super-synoptic-scaled interferences are in a destructive mode, relative the MJO. It's kinda sorta obvious too... Just knowing at a principle level that there are no 1::1 correlations between air, land, and sea on Earth for a reason... I bet the biggest blizzard and dystopian horror storm bomb ever to strike the East Coast happened before the arrival of modern science, and it happened in a Phase 5 MJO ... it's just that the 10's of thousands of other blizzards and bombs happen in Phase 8 -... something like that, albeit tongue-in-cheek.

What does ? ...seem favorable? I don't think this recent MJO migration means much of anything... It's found somehow momentum to pass through but it's effectiveness is being too heavily offset/negated/damped to really register so much ... So I'm curious what exactly is favorable and willing to learn why

Sorry to be snarky Jerry ...just forget it..

See ... I don't think people really learn when this stuff is present in here... I've explained this to the point of this: and it's like "how" could this question be asked! The MJO is not a pattern drive ... it is a pattern augmentation ... it has an influence... it can add to, or take away - We've said this hundred times - use logic: what do you think ?

Mm... which is why I surmised equally optimistic and pessimistic about the way things looked yesterday at this time... The model solutions, themselves, may not look exactly the same with details and features and synoptic this or that, ...but the fact that they look antithetic to enthusiasts is an absolute no-brainer expectation. I warned this.. and, the compression/gradient saturation was an issue. The PNA being unresponsive to recent migration of an MJO that had to "tunnel" it's way through the atmosphere/Phases 8 to begin with ...was all a red flag that the hemisphere/Pacific circulation engine is simply not ready to switch gears. You know...I'm in a pause - almost not sure which way to go... I see equally voices in the din of possibilities... The modestly warm ENSO which frankly ... I just read the NINO PDF and they are officially labeling ENSO-NEUTRAL right now? Forgive me,... but is "Modoki" a ENSO-NEUTRAL. I seriously don't know... But, I've been checking CPC periodic PDF updates since late summer and lots of threats for emerging El Nino but what is this... three months later and still neutral... Okay. But, assuming there is some sort of baser foundation for warming ENSO in there somewhere, "perhaps" there is an evolving correlation for later loaded winter... Lot of IF's n that stream of conscience. Jesus Christ. Assuming any of that parlays favorably... that whole SSW --> -AO is now also now appearing to register in the GEFs derivaties may be helpful if/when it lands on top/times with it... But, that's all predicated on the assumption that the hemispheric negative interference finally breaks toward.... f'n anything else at this point! 'Nother Jesus Christ. Still on a more positive note... SSW --> -AO is still in play. It's just perhaps muted by a foment of opposing mid latitude forces.. But the cold loading into the Canadian Shield isn't really being denied. Having a continental -scaled -20 C 850 mb mass of troposphere with several -30 C nodes rollin' around in the belly ...certainly is not a bad circumstances for "setting the table" ... We have our local climate and proximity geographic favoring that we could accidentally score a winter profiled situation ... it only seems out of reach because of the non-relenting butt bangs.. The -EPO/-PNA is ... not as good at all times... And even if the PNA is technically not negative? Folks need to learn what 'relativity' really means. Just because the numbers at CPC or CDC or what-have-us EPS may say +.5 SD PNA ... if the super-synoptic forcing is counter-acting that may as well be a -.5 PNA... It's the same saying "relative to all" we need a +2 SD PNA to play with this thing... and I suspect this sort of "invisible"/intangible may be going on...