Typhoon Tip

Ha ha ... Hey I gave it up - "nope" but couldn't resist... That thing out at at 300 + is about 50% toward a 1993 analog just from orbit btw - that oughta get some hopes unwarranted -

Nope ... That's the short answer But the prudent question really should be...is it realistic to expect any of it to happen - haha. To witch, we know the answer to that question; we just hedge bets and rationalisms much of the time in trying to will certain results into existence. All humor has a modicum of truth to it. Fact of the matter is, the models typically do not cast depictions that are "physically impossible" ? If so, that wouldn't be a very confident forecast model, would it. This facet is sort of baked in, yup ..but it's why folks' will come back at 6 to see the 18z version - ...hopes dashed as they typically are...Or, re-enforced...etc... Unfortunately, the atmospheric dynamo out in time is one that has factors of fractals to it's behavior, with non-present variables that are destined to emerge in time to alter outcomes. That's the only reason why a D8 Euro bomb fails. It's probably withing plausibility but the model corrected where it shouldn't, and/or something reared along the way to change things - but it was not originally impossible.

No... the better eye-candy is this 12z GGEM ... that sucker went from nadda to historic in the 500 mb synoptic evolution in one run! Not sure what it's doing at the surface but eesh

I was just geeking to the individual members and there are some definitely big bunners in that solution set from 00z... About 3 of the freebie members over and PSU look historic at 500 mb alone ( I don't tend to pay too close attention to their surface evolutions for anything beyond D4 as they are consummately too warm and tucked into the N wall of their 500 mb cores as a general rule...). But ironically ...upon looking at that mean, which is interesting with a few members at 186 hour < 965 mb just off the Cape, I can see why there are some deep solutions, not tucked/wrapped to the west. EPS does not appear interested from the previous cycle but I haven't seen the 06z Edit, I'm a dipshit..I was just looking at the 00z 500mb GEF members for the 06z surface evolutions - yeah... some odd ballz huh. oy

Where is he in AK? That's a hugemangous geographical area. He could be in a local-scale anomaly that doesn't reflect a the bigger picture because smaller relative spaces up there ...they're like Kansas sized. That's A The second aspect about that claim is that it was just several years ago that Valdez AK and surrounding points set snow records that were were historically above seasonal norms. I don't know what the specific numbers were, but there hasn't been much press about this year, to date. Maybe something will surface. .. Fact of the matter is, where cold is available...all over the world, snow result tendency are positive anomalous -

Y'all need to codify some form of primmer requirement for usage on the site if it is that annoying. It too often comes across as though those posting in that mind-space, more likely don't know any better? So, rather than passive shaming, which conjures other problems, try education. Something, anything... but, hoi-polloi appear to be able to sign up with limited or no prequalification for substantive contribution, unless they espouse being a Met (not sure if this social media platform requires credentials for that); else they have away at it. There's a conflict of interest. If this site's background agenda is profit through banner ads and so forth, the attraction cannot deny entry either - so the battle has to unfortunately be fought and won on this side of the allowability. Understood. So ... the options are clear, you have to isolinearly tag individuals exhibiting the less refined, overtly emotive response to tools meant for a tool box. Oh well.. But still, there could be a 'cultural' awareness of said primmer sourcing... or the like. --------------------------------------------- I suspect the pattern change is the culprit in the overnight abandonment issue with operational guidance' I wouldn't discard the notion that the nothing results - or to be more specific, something happens, just not here. Sometimes - baser philosophy of model usage - when the more refined operational versions of each cluster begin to converge on a consensus, their lesser sophisticated ensemble members will begin to fall in line. It's like 33% someodd percent of the time, the weight seems to pull from the other direction. That said, I think the EPS' idea of a flat bottle rocket southern stream low ejection off the MA that doesn't get the N/stream benefit until the lower Maritimes, may be a course of lesser regret. I mentioned the following yesterday that the flow appears destined to another episode of compression/higher velocities. I don't know if it will be as extreme as before ...when several west-east intercontinental flights set ground-based speed records ...soaring over 800 mph! No...but, when the HC "deflated" a couple weeks ago, and heralded in a new pattern featuring flow relaxation, it went like 'too far' in the other direction? ...for interesting weather events, that is.. So far, the guidance tenor when blending multiple sources, appears to want to bring it mid-way back in extremeness. Which...may and probably will provide its own headaches. I still suspect that the Euro operational is too amplified in the D8-10 ... It's treating western N/A below the 60-70th latitudes like the Pacific is drilling a fantastic AB phased -EPO...yet it really has pallid blocking inside the EPO domain space - I dunno, I think the progressive nature of the flow in the GFS may be more correct by complexion alone, obviously 'details' in the GFS cannot be trusted. Tough to separate those two in folks' minds. They'll tend to not see where the model is right, in lieu of not getting that 'forecast high' from a bomb cinema at publications times, but I digress..

00z GFS underscores the speeding up flow and the muddled phasing point I mentioned earlier. probably have on off runs through Wed

The only thing that would make that better is shaving 1C off the 850s and a new moon... so two things. But, stalling a 950s mb low in Boston Harbor some 180 hours out isn't really too appealing to me in a fast flow regime that requires impeccable stream dynamical handling/interaction at precision finite scales - that intrinsically can't be done. This is a luck solution spit out I'm afraid - as nice as it is to watch. But we all know this... just sayn'. I hate to say, seeing some evidence that the fast flow is trying to recur/evolve as a semi-permanent characteristic to that extended, ...across multiple guidance camps. The HC is sort of expanding her again. Note the spring in the deep south on the Euro...typically a mid Feb look down there, but three weeks earlier than normal, sets the stage for two aspects: huge gradient between the Canadian shield and the subtropics; and that is balanced by quickening mid level velocities everywhere. That makes phasing problematic. Can't have the x- corrdinate accelerating past the y ( N-S ) or the southern stream bi-passes N/stream wave mechanics. If one objectively goes back across the last several cycles of the GFS you can see this contention struggling in the guidance, with two perfect result runs ( this 18z and one couple days ago), otherwise, near misses or even inland ( unrealistic solution) runners. I don't see much curling inland through the Lakes with said flow tending to speed up... It's should be stretching wave lengths. I am aware that the Euro is flagging some sort of -EPO hybrid circulation structure out there at the end of the run but I don't believe that's going to transpire that way. There's not much about the west thru N- Pac arc that really translates toward a -EPO expectation. Possibly a flat fast +PNA offering some +PNAP amplitude downstream over mid latitude N/A, but that could easily be over meridian saturated when it comes to the Euro out there beyond D 6's. Not that the GFS is any better in it's own annoyances. I think that system next weekend/early next week should be watched - duh. There's too much presentation in both the ensembles for some form of amplitude in the east. I wouldn't count on phasing from this range without a good bit of luck and it would take that if the flow does get sheary fast.

Did anyone post the Euro snow tots ? morbidly curious

there's kind of a whisper back to the last 6 years here ... The bitch years had 'some'thing to look at in Febs...

Lot has to go right for that... This weekend's spent a considerable amount of time under long island in the various guidance clusters, too ... it would be funny if it all busted that way anyway, but excluding the extreme unlikeliness. There are doses of skepticism in here, but we have been correcting toward the ST L transit all season since the Dec 2 thing... Countless extended range betrayals to those that post and pretend they're aren't hopeful. Ha. awesomely transparent. Okay, it's not physically "im"possible for that Euro to happen. But that near perfection? So, taking a bite of of rudimentary deterministic philosophical sammich... any other solution other than perfect is by mathematical default, less perfect. But, that's true on the sliding scale too... up and down. Anything at the 80th percentile, by default means that the ballast of potential solutions will fall less impressive. I mean that's just it... that's why these D9er mean shit. If the cinema of the models is enough to keep folks elated and charged... okay. just sayn'. But your reality is thus fake

It's worth it to ask... because you know, these hint, frets and starts, if not outright modeled depictions, of quasi cutting 500 mb lows going under our latitude from earlier this week/last weekend, not one person - including self ...hey - post one word about that being against the seasonal trend. Seasonal trend has always been part of determinism in this game. Your 'ephermeral' climate bias. We have been sending trough core of the ST L ever since early December. Anyway, maybe we've been ignoring some obvious red flags? just wonderin'

I was actually comparing that 500 mb track to that guidance' ideas from four days ago, when/where it had position SE of ACK near the BM. It occurs to me to ask the question: has there been a 500 mb under LI since the early Dec event? I'm willing to wager the majority have sawed their way up there, up thru the ST L /NY.

Y’all’s prolly too incorrigibly inconsolable in a state of apoplectic angst by now buuut ... The tail end of that Nam solution shows the high in eastern Ontario back builds in the last three frames. Damming noses so whatever comes up from the arcing bclinic zone like that it’s not going to get through here not in that form. Has to go underneath. Granted ... all that’s going to change of course but that’s what the Nam shows on this run

I wonder if this breaks the record for fastest spin up to double digits page number for no reason. Haha Seriously… I’m actually with Will. It was always going to be tonight and tomorrow’s runs it really solidify this one way or the other because were bringing the stuff on board from off the open Pacific and it just it’s a week flow arena and that usually means that there are subtleties or details in there that need to be sampled properly. It’s like we have the opposite problem from over the last month when things were to screaming and fast

Would the last person that leaves this thread please turn out the lights? The custodians have even gone home -

Yeah ...s'pose it's time to divert the thread into that mash-up between nostalgia and personal tastes thing - For me, if winter is not cooperating by February 10, I'm out. I mean, I've gotten sun-burns in February ... It's like August - the antithesis. You could be up in it, thick, and be diametric in three weeks. I almost consider those months really as the transition beginnings going in either direction. The proverbial seasonal backs usually break in those months - heralds the warning shots across the bow. Just knowing that the futility gets to me and stop caring. Oh, I'll admit to hypocrisy if that historic thing happens in the spring - sure. But, the realist in me knows that's so fleeting that it automatically shuts down any anticipation for anything other than terminating winter. And I start praying and hoping that the 2nd New England winter that typically kicks off around March 21st and doesn't end until the middle of June doesn't theft 1.5 months of the early warm season. I mean, you get the sore butt winter, followed by 42 mist until June 10... then early cool snaps with a frost in Orange Ma in August ...? Follow that up with early recurving TC ... we're really talking some loathing Change hobbies.. ha! It's getting harder lately though. Man, we had 80s in February a couple years ago. And one March and two different Aprils also couched wack-job heat. All of these spanning the last 4 years, too, where we then lost out to spring to cool pointlessness. God... don't do that again.

more I look at that deliberate attack I laugh harder.. I mean.. what? 60 mph wind gusts from the S - after quite plausibly having gone through a butt soring beyond the very endurance of man -

ho man... what delicious misery. I hope that thing comes through as mostly cloudy dim sun sprinkles that way a ton-o hell on the face, ..then this happens 3 days later - that'd set up the devotees all sweet and proper, huh

I never could stand the reasoning that it's up to the speaker to make sure the idiot doesn't run with a story - It takes two to tango in that.

See ...this sort of insinuates that expectation was set? That's on the part of the reader unfortunately. The ULL behavior and so forth does mimick those events. But there's no declaration of for a redux there. Truth be told, the same sort of comparisons could be drafted up and said for any partial/quasi-closed system that moves along as such... That's all it is/was. One should be able to mention and have the reader process properly - yeah, I know. It's like you can't bare mention at all.

Ahh yeah..there's probably some deeper members in there...but D 5, we'd like to see that < 1000 .. Again, this could all be moot if this comes on board out west overnight and suddenly .. we dawn tomorrow with more substantively sampled/resulting model panoply. The Euro morphology between the 00z and 12z is telling - we need more time. Too much grousing...too much faux elation...too much everything when patience is warranted. I will say this much ... despite the 2-page morning campaign to sack the GFS lobbied by the collective, the 850 and 700 mb set ups out there at 120 hours are tasty. Isothermal snow sounding with deep >90% RH through 500 mb is plenty to get a good old fashioned pasting.

No ... factually, it's been showing a 1002 type low for many cycles. That's not really very exciting - though by definition, exciting is subjective I guess. To each his own - but let's not over sell 1002 mb low either way.

what ...is it showing yet another cycle with a 1002 mb low S of ISP ... woooh I will say this much, if this Euro run goes on to score with that, that's a big win for the early spring camp. wow... That is a f'n late March faux extended prick tease story line if ever we lived through a spring in NE - just happens to be setting up in late January. It's been a spring look all along. Some of us have been bringing this to light -

Nah .. Seems like most credible contributors in here have it pretty well baked in that this is a piece of crap with potential. Identifying trends that may lend to more vs less impact is part and parcel in deterministic forecasting, too - so that shouldn't be held against anyone imho. That said, it may also reflect more on one's own resenting of the winter thus far - ha - so they snark on others for what it is they're really doing.. But, I get it - some may... Look, no one should really be holding a pistol to the head of any model until this thing gets better sampling. The Euro is showing continuity issues ...that's a red flag.. If it was handling/seeing the initialization properly it probably wouldn't be deviating from a consistency as much as it has. Put it this way...what if drilled a hole in the ocean to the bed rock SE of the Cape - same crap.