Typhoon Tip

Who is 'we' ? I said the average poster... Mean, some do, some don't - I know what I'm seeing from y'all.

Mm... tacitly observing the posting content the last three days since I lost interest in this week... I can only say that I think it's been over assessed by interpretation. So, it may be persistent, but there's a collective over clocking of what it may mean. > 50 % of the QPF mass in most ANA deals ends up being virga, particularly on the western/northern peripheries of smear. The models overdo these things, and surface realization in the cold air side is often evaporating - the previous model runs looked like moderate rain --> light mix ending as flurries based upon experience. It doesn't seem like the average poster is really aware of that sort of nuance. That said, this GGEM run decides to go prodigious enough to overcome that ... heh, we'll see.

Fwiw - the 12z EPS mean is substantially flatter with the latter week system.. Actually even suggests a triple point/miller B slips under us. Considering the typical discrepancy between the operational and EPS means is pretty narrow, that suggests there is some arguing going on among the members as to what the flow orientation will really be after the mid week time period - which duh ...that's 6 + days away in an operational model that drills for oil pretty routinely.

Not sure how tongue in cheek this is, but we're not really gonna get that type of warmth out of "cutter" lows. They're always at best 60/60 misty gales, with a ribbon echo squall before the plunge type deals. If the low is far enough west to get that kind of warmth suggested above, where it's like ludicrous ... it's too far west to really be a cutter, and more like a just a huge warm pattern anomaly. Just sayn' That did happen in Dec 1999 I think it was... there was week in early December where it got to 74 two days back to back... but that was back in those SE ridge-on-roid years.

Could be 14 F out there over that snow pack in the favored chill locales in the interior ( or deeper ) Sunday morning at dawn, then 54 Monday late afternoon with torrents in the gutters. Amazing... Not the kind of interesting Meteorology the yokes care to hear about, but it's impressive nonetheless.

Here it is again ... a salient surmise for a mid month event - nice work

I don't know how the modelers/NCEP managed to serve this GFS this way, but they somehow improved storm track while maintaining a horrifically egregious progressivity bias overall. I think if they fix the fact that the base-line scaffold of this model tries to make the flow laminar out in time at least excuse imaginable, first, they might have a f'n chance and clue at really fixing their storm track guidance. Look at the 06z GFS op at 210 hours... whether that happens, not with standing, but how often does one see a 1032 mb arctic high with 500 DAM thickness NW of Maine, and a deep low scooting E of the VA Capes, and rain...not snow...tickling NYC at a N FRINGE ... That is a manifestation of non-intersecting jet structures, that happens when the flow gets too god damned stretched. It's erroneously rotating all vectors too much into W-E, or E-W orientation to liberally - at all levels. All winter long, we're going to be dealing with that garbage. Yet the Euro? They over-do it in the other direction. I almost wonder, if they removed their so dubbed "4-D variable correction scheme" and run their model, if it would be doing the same thing as the GFS. I mean, it scratches the head why using the same exact physical equations could be so demonstratively different - but I guess that holds true for all guidance types. GGEM...UKMET ...GONAPS. They must all be "over-thinking" nature and trying to imagine a better solution out in time. It's like watching my family prep dishes around the Holiday's, and instead of making them yummy based on the nature of yore ...they fumble around and f- it up, and make just sorta good.

Actually ... wait - you may yet "get" to be f-over by this one, too, if you believe the Binghamton and Albany rad loops...Pretty clearly looks like this is heading S of your latitudes. Let's see if we can get that done!

ANA depictions on the mid range/ext. charts have another sort of .. ephemeral value about them. They are like 'in-run' uncertainty smearing? If you can image a metaphor where you are looking at the ensemble products that put the uncertainty colorizing on which side of the envelope, suggesting the direction of possible correction and so forth. In the 'in-run' metaphor, it's like the model is admitting it's not sure if there's something that's going to happen there. It's good as a start, because there's a shameless "air" of truth to that in general; if there is enough physical machinery left over in a given atmospheric evolution that is west of a front, then in principle that region is a step closer to mechanizing more organized storminess/cyclogen and so forth. SO, future guidance could be worth it.

Yeah...I was just considering whether I am interested enough to fight slow load times on various web-interfacing to check surface obs up there along the Mohawk Trail for verification. ...wondering if this is a virga bomb... It's a 'little critter' ... It's like a little poodle with lip curling attitude that scares the shit out of the Shepherds that don't get it, and yipe away tail curled under genitals ( what the hell did I do - arp!) I figure if someone clocks a 3.25" poof event outta this thing, that's at least getting a nip and snarl

oh yeah .. Currier and Ives in the area today -

Mm overly modeled perhaps... but it's a real phenomenon. The realization of it is not nearly as frequent as we see it smeared up the western side of cold fronts in the models - that much is true.

...A shift east that did not continue "enough" in the 00z cycle immediately following as much as I was bunning, unfortunately. There's time. Classic Appalachian runner out there after the correction cold floods east in the 00z Euro run. Haven't actually seen one of those west-side roof-top runners in years ... years, actually, maybe it's time. There's a funny rub to that should a deep Gulf wave bomb up the western slopes of the eastern cordillera like that, cutting between Buffalo and Albany ( toting along a + 12 C, 850 mb plume of clear to western Maine! ). All of that is still "nailing" the mid month storminess idea. Perfect call! Nice job letting everybody know what their missing - LOL It won't get the recognition of course, ... because of what it would mean for New England - but, the atmosphere and the phenomenon that it carries ...? It doesn't care about what we want The existence of a corrective event, prescribed and executed by meteorological phenomenon, can be rain or snow. That's obvious, of course, but ... I do at times sense an unbalanced recognition practice ( ha ha ) when it comes to post 'objective analysis' regarding storm calls comparing results that were, snow vs rain, vs even nearly missing but still having a big bomb in a vicinity - that matters in the fair distinction, too. Everything else is human conception, desire...at times, conceit; and whether the weather is cooperating with that baggage, that baggage really has nothing to do with being right or wrong, but may coincidentally align. Funny... but might be hard for folks to see that clarity and truism. Just because we may not get an interesting "winter-like" event out of x-y-z, does not mean shit. The existence, in time, of the event, is all that matters. Now that I've finished lambasting the straw man ...ha ha. But you get my meaning - or should. Anyway, I still think there is chance to morph the whole-scale circulation spacing more east. Not a lot. But we all know the Euro likes to hold up the progression of troughs and ridges in late middle/extended ranges, in lieu of its penchants for curving the flow. I.e., over amplitude. That might be why the GGEM and GFS are both east of that look overall.

That shift east with the total mass fields by the operational Euro later next week may be subtle, but it's important

too much gradient D 5 Euro... Need that to relax with some back side confluence over western Ontario - we'll see where it goes.

Details ?

Oh m g ... what will they come up with next. face smacking in the Olympics ? - that'd be awesome.

What the f* is this... ....

LOL... I was thinking that this morning when I saw this "island" solution ... That's like 12" of snow, followed on the next panel by [ probably ] 1.6" of High-tention AC power tower bending ice accretion - real crumpling event. Then I go look at the Euro and ...egh. Thing is, though the GGEM is a dart fight at a blind people's convention ... the Euro is probably too far west, whole-scale, with that trough evolution. The D9 doesnt' have the appearance of necessary kinematics leading, that 24 hours later it could implode such a deep mid and u/a hemispheric scale R-wave juggernaut like the Euro ALWAYS fuggin does at that time range anyway. So, I'm willing to bet that's flatter - to what ultimate solution? Meh, ...who knows...but in and of its self, the Euro's annoying beyond D 6. The GFS's 6 z has it's own obnoxious rendition, which I mentioned a while ago... I think in general there's enough tele jolt going on mid month to assume ( still ) the warm up early in the week ( next ) is just a reset deal. In fact, the EPS is far less N-S amped comparing the operational run, and has strong corrective fropa already by the end of Tuesday. First it gets warm; then it gets cold; boom.

It is really because we care less about storms bearing snow and wind, ...we care about the modeling whims. This is going to come off as less than entirely rational but this GFS model is infuriating to the frustrating point where I am challenged not to consider the modeling engineers are 'faking it'? It seems they are deliberately putting anti-storm mechanical physical equations in the models, to stop storms from developing in this model. That D9 - 11 00z operational evolution is a perfect example, and I see this model do this over and over and over and over again... It sets the table with big sprawling arctic/polar highs with thick baroclinic instability; then, trundles plenty of vortex mechanics through TX... end up up with a vesper up in New England. I mean, yeah...storms dud some times... But when it deconstructs every f'n stinkin' one of them like 19 times out of 20, it starts to get a bit suspicious. It's like they run the model in a raw form, it creates super nova storms, and instead of fixing the model so that it comes to a 'normal' cyclogenesis result more organically, they zap it with a dimming constant.

This may offer a long sought explanation to a question I never got an answer to, from years ago .,, It was around that time that I started seeing higher tier DBZ during snow events and I wasn’t sure if that had always been the case or were storms suddenly got more severe. I guess I just assumed the technology got more sensitive so that does sort of confirm that. But case in point the morning of the 23rd 1997, there was a massive area 50 to 55 DBZ returns over Eastern Connecticut and Southern Worcester County moving north north east toward us in Middlesex and I thought for sure it was sleet bright banding. 15” to 23” of immediate history in the making

Was that radar type around in December 23, 1997?

After that reset event next week the GFS is sending buckshot opportunities for minoring impact events ... probably wintry in character right out to the end of the run. That's really the over-arcing theme, a winter like mid month - not the intervening warm up (comparatively very brief). Which, happen. It's part of the natural order of things, that even at large scale there is a kind of 'ebb and flow' in patterns. By the way, the event early Friday smacks a bit like that 2002 ( 2003?) Feb 10-ish ( god I suck at dates!) "Little critter that bites" and bit very hard. Who knows if it this one can over-perform ( if at all ) but that one back then was a hugely dismissive 10" 1/4 mi vis Pike halting menace that sent NWS scrambling and reeling to get warnings out that by the time were registered to the public the sun was already come back out. Oops

You can see the two ridge nodes ..one over old Mexico and the other between Florida and Bermuda in the Euro's end frames. That structure is just a weee bit too far west in totality. It would be nicer to have the nadir betwixt the two be more aligned Buffalo's mean longitude, rather than Chi-town or west. As is, that is a prelude to a Apps runner. Perhaps with a labored secondary on D11 that doesn't commit but keeps the warm front from ever getting in here. But that's all D10+ so the chances of that plot extrapolation playing out are laughably dicey. What really sticks out to me is the incredible warm lobe pinched off over Alaska with that -EPO and/or uber amped +PNA ( which ever that is..) on D6. The pattern's completely up-side-downed our side of the hemispheric 850 mb cold. Between Lake Superior and James Bay the model ends with -32 C air in there. Meanwhile if there was any sun at all up in NE Alaska they'd be 60+. Wow.

It's not a cold pattern, either, to be fair. In fact, that's probably better interpreted as 'n/s,' as it is said, or no skill. Code for pointless.. It's weak only in phase 2 with not that much time for momentum exertion to begin with. That alone means it is unlikely exerting much if any forcing on the pattern... and that is definitely even more so, true, as it collapses into that COD region as you noted. The other aspect about the MJO that I guarantee you, the consensus of the greater Met community ambit is not considering: the Hadley Cell is unusually expanded associated with the background GW signal. This is not supposition or speculation; it is empirically noted and papered. But, .. what that means is that it has expanded in latitude, N and S of the tropics into and farther beyond the subtropics... where it amorphously bounderies with the lower Ferrel Cell ( middle ) laitudes in some cases. This changes the planetary mechanics of how the MJO ...and ENSO for that matter, can effective force on the Global circulation - as it pertains to R-waves distribution... A little pricey in words there ..the simple way to say is, the correlations are changing. They have to. That's logic. If a static characteristic of a-b-c source --> teleconnects to x-y-z at a separate location, what happens when the a, b, or c sources is/are no longer static? Yet, from official forecast offices, to seasonal forecasting efforts by ignored and cute enthusiasts of social media and back, there's rarely a turn of phrase conveying much awareness or perhaps even "respect" for that chain of reasoning. But I'm digressing a bit here ... Point is, a feeble wave signature trundling briefly up into lower wave strength range in one phase, only to drowned in the COD, when on-goign, background din of the Global maelstrom makes that like a vesper in the quasar of a black hole, mmm that pretty much means that it is utterly nothing ... most likely Nothing is ideally deterministic in this game, but that's the money line there. CDC's just come back on line with it's teleconnectors... It's the EPO source I typically use... I'm sure the Euro and perhaps the GGEM and UKMET folk put their own variations, and if you pay for them, they'll give the mass fields with a deep and caring proctological examination for an equally handsome pretty sore-butt price. Which I'm not willing to pay for those informatica. The EPO at CDC has a spike in the PNA but ... when the EPO is neggie like that, and then tries to flip positive, that suggests that the flow down stream over North America should actually stretch west to east some in time. Yet, we see the operational runs dealing reverses on that clad advise given yesterday. I wouldn't give up on that though. It may work out with endless cutters.. It may - hence the 'nothing is ideally determinable' in this game. But, I "think" the models are too 'diggy' out west for these last couple of cycles. This did this before this snow storm too... We went through a big warm up signal a couple weeks ago and it really didn't work out too well.