Typhoon Tip

This counter vector at low levels is always in place, too ... It's what corrupts a warm frontal forecast in April, ... At all times, there is a llv offset that has to be overcome to get a warm air to displace E of those elevations you describe. It's almost like the jet you describe will always form period; not succeeding to do so has more to do with those compensating vectors already overcoming.. Think of it this way... this region east of that elevation tract is really an air-foil behind a wing's edge...where the flow turns around.. The only way that's overcome is if the whole mass field turns around and bodily/gradient points seaward, such that the flow in that "tuck" alley is also bodily moving away. That does happen from time to time ..yes ..even in the dreaded April. Having a 1036 mb high N of Maine? that is precisely the opposite of the moving away model. Yeah, this was slam dunk for correcting colder "IF" these models overall features are correct. I agree with Scott...the standard 6 or even 12 hours additional tack on the rise rate of the temperatures in that interior region is also necessary.

Yeah .. still the NAM beyond 30 hours.. But, the FRH grid crude method/triangulation would pretty much squarely mean warning ice probably along the axis of roughly ASH to ORH ... and actually, in an usual circumstance related to very good timing of this event with the "freshness" idiosyncrasy of the leading polar air..the eastern side of the axis might even accrete inside the I-95 regions by some distance. Interesting... The present ice storm warning graphic at NWS/Gov situated west of ORD would be required here. We'll see what like ALL or any other guidance suggests here shortly...

What do you wanna know ... ? I mean clearly there are two neutron stars revolving around a common center of mass in an ~ 10,000 year decaying orbital lock. Eventually they will coalesce... probably with a supernova nova ... followed by the clear signature of black hole.

Mixed emotions ... I've opined plenty in the past, buut, I think icing is a fascinating phenomenon... both for science and wonder, but the aesthetic specter of a trillion prisms shimmering under azure skies when the sun recommences ... defies physical description. But, that whole splendor disappears for me real, real fast when I'm standing there in a chilly living room and just about every single act in real-time we are programmed in our western civility requires electricity that I know longer have access to - including so much as a slice of toast or heating the f'n home... - the novelty of all that can go f its self. I dunno ... dystopian awe, or incalculable inconvenience ... interesting balancing act. I think at the end of the day, ..given to my age and sense of responsibility to life and home and "adulting" (... as Millenials both invented and loathe) ... I probably edge on the side of go f its self. If it stops at precisely .24" accretion, we can really have both the splendor and have the toast.

The importance also that this is still a fluid situation... pun is shameless, but, what I meant was, ... this could trend colder or milder... I suggest colder for the lower 200 ... 250 mb of the column though. The highest confidence aspect of this event is that the lowest resolution and cold draw/ageostrophic correction is ALWAYS in favor of the inverted sounding.

Nice synopsis, dude - "...Freezing rain and sleet, becoming all freezing rain after 8pm. Some thunder is also possible. Temperature rising to around 31 by midnight. East wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible...." There is a lesser known '24-hour teleconnector' between the Lakes and NE ... The Flint Tornado preceding the 1953 Worcester event fell squarely into that correlation for example.. I sense something similar to that excerpt off NWS/ORD above as approximal/applicable across the region. Though not to word precisely/necessarily .. of course. The 12z NAM is > .95" in sleet at Logan. In fact, I'd even be concerned ... that tucking might pile the cold deeper yet and we end up with that tall sleet column.

It's 8 o-clock... I have the highest utilization numbers on my team... I also can produce those op ed 'fun-writes' in about 5 minutes too yeah, I come in early to have some free space -

Ditto at times ... but, in this case... I think others may be referring to that wonder bomb on the D7.5/9 operational Euro, wrt to that "interesting next week" stuff. That said, there has been some off and on support among the GEFs members - not that you asked... But, I do like it when there is "cross-guidance" suggestion - when somewhat disparate physical methods arrive upon a similar destination ... usually a clad argument for some sort of physical presence in the flow actually being real and not some mere computer enhanced fractal bullshit. Then of course .. the 00z GEFs members pretty much unilaterally abandoned that same Miller B bomb idea that a few carried at 12z... but that could be construed as normal for the extended just the same. Obviously we are willing to give all models a pass on D7-10 anything... But, that period of time might be worth a look over the shoulder in future cycles. Just sayn' .. actually the 18z para-useful GFS version had it too.. No sense in languishing over run details off any guidance this far out...but as is, that's pretty much the perfect set up - which should bother "irresponsible impulse hope" folks for that aspect alone. Not many perfections, at this range, really ever successfully polish to within 50% of their original panache. But ...suppose for a second it did out of morbid curiosity and entertaining writing ... To me that looks like somewhere in the neighborhood of a 12 to 15" overrunning instability burst. Ideally so actually, with GW infused theta-e anomaly running up 90 degrees normal to the isentropes at some 40+ kts in the 700 mb level. May as well detonate a hydrogen cryo bomb inside the SGZ. Good for 1/16th of a mile visibility suffocation, and as that attenuates and the secondary implodes S of LI ... a meso-scratched CCB with lightning flashes explodes over the area for another 12 to 15" ... Whole system .. 'bout 30 hours to play out. Ha... if something like that happened, most sites would be at their seasonal norm I suppose ...if not above ... exposing the lack in intellectual accountability and state of controlled neurosis of this model dystopian lusty pass-time in a lot of ways.. Which, this is what it's about really ... Your distaste, I suspect, is really an eye-rolling that. As an aside, if the models gave us a steady diet of these types of appeals ...that would probably air out half if not more of the malcontent/unreadability that hangs over these thread spaces like the stench in the asylum.

Will and I have been covering the ice potential for days ... wtf - Boy, that GFS para run at 18z was a dream wave... God I love those waves that break that way.. The beauty of that whole evolution is that the flow over Florida and adjacent areas is actually relaxed/compressible ... probably the first time this year I've personally seen that... There's no inhibition on that wave. It's only D7/8 too ... ha! only ... Still, better than a D10er

yeah..just commented some on that... I don't think the exact magnitude is important, as much as the character of the field.

Speaking of which ... I have lived through enough mid winters in my life to know this is highly unusual... Two years in a row? Even more so... It's not so much even the magnitude of the temperature - though last year's run in with this sort of thing ... obviously challenges physical description, it was so absurd. But it's the way in which is got this warm... Typically, we have a deep Lakes bomb...with an intense WCB that's blasted a warm front thru with near saturated DPs and gales from the S. Like 58/56 then a ribbon echo squall. That type of storm is not as uncommon, regardless of all.. I can remember them in 1980s...1990s... ...etc.. What is disturbing is the laze faires calm wind with unabated sear sun shining ...with 65.7 F punch drunk bumble bees bouncing off car windows. Last year's 70 to 80 days in there were the same way.. It wasn't a transport scenario in other words ... it was like in situ lewd warmth - not sure what I am saying is resonating in the reader or not... But it's different to smell pungent sweet at 11 pm on February 3rd, and rocket to 65 the next day, in full sun and light wind quiescence. If this was Feb 20th like last year? I bet we'd -a made 73 today.

My thing isn't exactly what Kevin's saying ... What I meant by that is, " I don't get strung out over missing opportunities" period. Like I said, I appreciate it when it snows... I just don't miss or feel some how deprived if things don't work out, or the models won't entertain us.. That's stuff actually tries my patience around here but that's an aside - I can be totally blown away by an incredible 65 F day on February 4 ... and a week later, equally mesmerized by deep cryo bomb stalled on ISP ... I just like interesting things to happen period.

I'm liking the uptick in amplitude of the D7.5 ejection out of the west/S of ORD there... Regardless of the "winter ending index" doom and clatter abounding the e-wave memes of the day ... that may be true but that system has been off and on in the GEFs fwiw -

I'm actually curious if the DP is the greater anomaly ...

It's interesting as a middle ager to sense the bending outlooks and desires as those under me also enter these years... Trust me ... tack on a nother 7? You won't care a ratz ass one way or the other if it ever snows again Oh, you'll appreciate it when it does - but you wont pine or care that much at all any more when it doesn't.

Thing is ... the recent negative AO did time reasonably well with the SSW lag correlation ... when looking at the other years with the SSW --> leading AO response. Not sure why she's [apparently] not connecting the dots there... but (SSW + 30 days) lends to the recent 10 days of neggie AO just fine.. It's funny someone brought this up. I was thinking about writing about this, this morning .. on a day actually still inside the temporal bounds of said -AO ...where the 55+ temperatures and spring like crocus weather abounds ... (ironically), that the +AO out there really appears to be a hemispheric "slosh" back now that the forcing is actually on the other side of an AO response and is attenuating ... But, you know - conjecture is conjecture. I just don't personally see anything amiss... We had an SSW... some weeks later, we had a -AO... embedded in which there was a historic or near historic cold wave.. I suspect there are assumptions/expectations being made as to the longevity of forcing and probably ... I mean there's multiple reasons why either that, and any magnitude of cold delivery to middle latitudes (and where for that matter) ... have other factors contributing and/or offsetting. It's not like "SSW ... oh my god!" every year... She's a doctorate ... one would assume that when she's not fielding questions for hoi polloi and/or charlatans ...she prooobably has a broader pallet of awareness in said matters. There's that too -

60 at several home systems close to mi casa - ... Just looking out the window here in Shrewbury at work, it looks warm. Bust is on... MOS' probably 4 to 7 under done..

By the way... not sure if anyone's paying attention but we got a pretty good temperature bust going on right now... Most MOS' , and as far as I am aware ... human interpretations, were colder than 54 to 57 F for this hour; in fact, the high was supposed to be shy of this or equal, and we're likely tapping 60 at that... Now the we are preparing to leave the perennial solar minimum over this next week, we sort of unofficially enter the time of year when MOS' will typically bust too chilly on these type of days. Not sure why that is ...although it's probably climo attributed - exactly how/why I don't know.

Fwiw (not much most likely...) the NAM came in with an overnight pellet and glaze fest heading into Thursday morning...

Nah...it's just a circumstance of broadly warming environmental air ... probably like we discussed, simply holding more water vapor that combines with ongoing impurities. I've smelled this air in other February 52 F blasts ... Hell, remember last year's 80 F day? ...I actually didn't even smell that smell as much at first, but the DP was desert dry in that warm up.

Hmm ...that's an interesting question - Firstly, the pattern changed to a snowier one. The problem? It just didn't snow. While not necessarily intended to point at you, per se... I have noticed a tendency to conflate the weather people want to see in the models, with the pattern ...which is understandable, but unfortunately there's more to it and there is a disconnect there. The pattern doesn't dictate whether it actually storms or not. The pattern only indicates favorable regimes. It may be hard to for some to really grasp or understand what that means... but, think of it this way ... with a superior organization, an NFL football team is in a better probability for winning on any given Sunday. But, that doesn't guarantee a win. Same here... When the pattern changed after the December debacle ... it changed for the better, but your team still lost. It just didn't snow in a pattern that had ample ingredients supplied to make that happen. So the cause for why it did not actually "do" x-y-z exists elsewhere. To that...I don't know what to say or add. We can be adult about that... or we can kick and scream and flop like five year-olds (proverbially speaking) because we're not getting what we want - which is a metaphor for the impatience and vitriol that happens among the neurotic usership of this site - haha. Anyway, the pattern this week ...not so much ...no. But this is a well-advertized thaw that's merely going according to plan. A pattern that is likelier to produce events more in sync with winter enthusiasts is out there... oh, D7 to 10 ... but it's really more like "returning," ...which again, following from this logic, doesn't not mean it will produce.

I noticed that same distinction last night pilin' outta my friends Super Bowl party around 10:30 pm down in the Arlington area. As I climbed the rest of the way up Rt 2, the dash thermometer rose from 36 to 38 as I pressed onward out past the Concord rotary and eventually over I-495. Out there amid middle Mass, on February 3rd, at 11:30 pm, it was just shy of 40 F...and the air carried a similar aroma to that of distantly burning paraffin wax. It's nostalgic of the warm season, no doubt. The peculiar thing is...I actually have smelled that before blue-bomb snow events... That SYZYGY storm way back in 1986 ...two days before that event a rotted polar air mass was slabbed across PA to NE and I recall the evening had that smell, despite the winter storm warnings in place. But a subtle polar front homogenized in as the storm was moving N of the coast and that ended that detection. Anyway, I think it's any time the moisture content gets above a certain level in the air ...it (maybe) mixes with impurities and gives at vague sweet pungency -

For those of us spring enthusiasts ... the first sign of the change: the sun has risen at Utqiaġvik! Sun rise at the most northern U.S. town is more than merely symbolic .. it's a physical circumstance of the Earth's tilt in relation to the sun slowly and inexorably reversing. Moving forward, the brief showing of old sol at this far northern location, will lengthen in duration and ascent above the horizon. Meanwhile down here in middle latitudes, the next step will be passing out of the perennial solar minimum ... occurring ~ February 10 every year. You will notice more daylight nearing the 5 pm and beyond around that date, as well as a more obvious warmth to the suns rays on clear days. Obviously ... these distinctions in real time and a given season's climate don't always see eye to eye. Regardless of whether they disagree or not, however, July is still inevitably coming... so one side of that argument is definitely, eventually, going to lose. Just a matter of time...

Seems there were three schools about the 'quality' of that Super Bowl product it's self ...just based upon the immediate tenor emerging. One ... it was an awesome game, because the Patriots won. Period. That's it. That's the ball-game. There's no other sensible reality to the Patriot 'must-win-at-all-cost, super centric fan base... And to some degree, as the intensity wanes moving away from the core, that vibe is still shared. Since the Patriots won it was an awesome game ... And there may be other dimension to why this sector absolutely needs that victory ...but that aside, having gotten what they wanted, an amazing game. Two ... everyone else.. Those that like football but don't really care who won/wins... they want the high-flyin' athletic display human - challenging awe and cinema on the field. To them, this game sucked giant donkey balls. And, to some degree, as we move away from that core, that vibe is shared. Since the Patriots won, it really doesn't matter to them... Three ... there is a growing sector of those that loathe the Patriots ... no matter what the game was complexion wise... That core hated the game and don't care to even discuss the complexion of the product on the field, because as far as they are concerned, the wrong team won.

Well... I wouldn't ever put much stock in any product that attempts to paint a boundary layer/surface sensible layout, when said product happens to be off the GFS anything - in all seriousness.. The scaffold of that model's base-line physics appears to be completely f'ed up with low level handling ... Less than seriously, it is so blatantly bad that I almost visualize some sort of ... I dunno, conspiracy to cover up having left out that entire arm at the modeling agency and someone/quorum is sitting on the truth to protect reputation and jobs... Anyway, I bet that lead little shearing impulse ices a bit ... Then, it's got more to it than mere mass-balancing/"sloshing" pheonomenon (which is what the tuck really is).. Why? because it is an actual impulse ... which means, after it's piddly WAA runs off...there will be backside NVA/DVM however subtle that may be...adds to the slosh We'll have to wait and see what the inevitable 'tuck acceleration' yields ... I could almost envision BED squeezing to 32.7 after four to six hours of light icing and pellets, then ..as you say, crashing to 31.3 and perhaps 29 F at ASH just before the ageostrophic breeze goes calm... Then, the main impulse winding up through the lakes, brings an hour of steadier accretion swathing through N of the Pike (34 at Tolland), before latent heat release from phase change teams up with conduction... resqueezes the temperature back edging over freezing. Probably ends up about 34 to 38 N/W of ORH-BED line...with that typical mangled 40 variability NW of PVD... Then, the flow accelerates to a scouring westerly direction with the occluded fropa ... we spike for two hours before the region cools back ... Just like always happens every time without exception in these will warm up or stay cold lead side CAD deals... and around and around we go... Something like that... For the record and sarcasm aside, if there is any... and I mean any so much as mere chance for BL resistance NE of NYC's geography... one would be wise to cut warm intrusion - simply a matter of to what degrees/amount therein.