Typhoon Tip

heh..well, thx -hopefully we know that's tongue-in-cheek commiseration .. . tainted humor ftl -

You know ..it's interesting, because this tendency to correct NW turning the page from mid range into short terms seems to be failing on this cycle ...which could arguably have zygote heredity in those 18z peripheral model types from late yesterday. We'll see... We're almost at a proper 'put up or shut up' scorched Earth mode tho - one of these suckers needs to work out... This is just taking mid-range verification to the wood shed this year. wow.

Yeah..I mentioned this above wrt to the whimsy ICON ... but I suspect there is an emergent problem with the models in their handling such extraordinarily powerful mid level jet mechanics racing in pithy mass from the TV to SE of the Cape and NS ..That region is hosting wide, long 120+ to 145 kt wind max and the places the entire region from WV to EEN, NH in a precarious kind of frontogenic look for one...but it seems there is a giant ..though capped potential for Q-G forcing ..which in lay terms translates to upper vertical motion. It's almost like there is a tendency for leak and when that does the lift goes nuts ( metaphor ) Some of that may be collocated with a surface reflection/low and that might cause a faux depth ... The ICON has a 983 mb low over PVD out of no-where, when the previous panel just 6 hours earlier was much shallower in an interverted... Now the GFS. The Euro is going to be fascinating I feel because this is a unique challenge for it's smoothing algorithms, where it cuts down on noise effecting outcomes and so forth. YOu know plus as Scott was saying ... and we discussed yesterday, this is a now-cast nightmare because while all that is taking place above 3K elevation... this region down here has it's own cold loading headaches and uncertainties to contend with

There's evidence in that 12Z ICON solution of hydrostatic forcing - i.e., 'mid level magic. Helluva burst of snow for N-central Mass/ southern VT/NH ..western zones though brief 78-84 hrs, but deep-ish sfc pressure carving through the PVD corridor while that happens, in total these are adjustments/new comparing prior runs. I'm noticing that the last three cycles of the NAM and this model all ticked SE by small measures. These guidance types are of course low in confidence at this range, however, -

Not to jolt hopes with insinuation ... but, usually the NAM is too far NW - telling? ...haha, considering the NAM's the story teller, notwithstanding -

Man that 06z GFS ( yes yes ...you've discussed it already - eat me! ) was loaded up with winter storm chances.. It just gets difficult to visualize any of that actually succeeding in taking place .. .what with this Stockholm Syndrome of failure and defeatism; yeah, we just get so use to that, you grow accustomed to it and acceptance creeps in. We can't help it. It's human. This winter has had a "spooky action at a distance" quality to it, no question...as though something metaphysical were guiding things to perfect elegance in 'how' it fails too - like rubbing it in. It's like you smirk to your self at model release, ' how is the next run going to seemingly deliberately erode this look ' Kidding, but this has been the worst winter I can ever recall for verification scoring in the D6-9 range. Now ...obviously and normally, one would not exactly expect banners in meritorious over modeling performance in that range, but this year really has been particularly egregious. Performing - and this is the homage to that hokey stuff abv - specifically poorly wrt to anything cryo in nature. If the words frozen or freezing are any part of the potentials envelope, said envelope is nearly emptied of it's content at some temporal switch ...usually about D4 ..5... with shimmering alacrity - poof. They should just run the models to D4.5 ..and then the next chart just reads, whatever would have illustrated here, it will be better than what you are going to get. Here's the thing... I'm noticing the teleconnectors have been bad for 45 straight days...on average. There may have been frets and starts in there where things verified, but the vaster percetage of times...these mass fields have been better examples of what NOT to do if we want a winter. So, maybe there's problem in the operational guidance to 'overtly winterize' the looks, so to speak...and it's in fact our focus that is distracting us from the bigger picture, said focus being on the operational runs and drooling over ever opportunity for modeling cinema that emerges down the pike. The operational runs are trying to make it Feb 1 ( say ), but then this other stuff that the cackling rabble and "lucid" rubes want to make fun, like Noah's water as the global ship is sinking ..blah blah, it continues along it's way to usurp it's dominating influence one those latter ranges as they become more coherent in time... Simply put, there are reasons for these system correcting NW that is sort of more in place (I'm thinking..) than even I have been seriously considering enough. They are two fold related to just pattern orientation ( teleconnectors ), and these other synergistic factors combined. Therefore, the jailer's jokes in that Stockholm prison are becoming more soothing. Anyone else ready for baseball, bike rides, the beach and babes ? This op ed oughta get us a historic blizzard cooked up! haha Usually how it works.

NAM appears colder

Yeah ...this seasonal trend/persistent modeling correction behavior is really something... One aspect I'm noticing is that the ridge in the west ... or what ridging is west, is really more situated partially lapsed over the west coast/ E Pac in the means. That's too far west. Almost like a west-based +PNA, so the PNAP pattern over the U.S. is skewed out of sync just enough. The natural R wave length argument is actually west... so these east mid range modeling tendencies may be what's really wrong all along. If that's the case ..this is probably a 40 F winter. I've postulated that with fast flow, that does allow for some 'stretching' in the west-to-east coordinate, and that may be what the models are doing in the mid/extended range, but not sure. I'm not sure why it's right around 60 to 84 hours out ( or 96..etc), right abouts in there we get these corrections back NW. Thing is... one storm did to this to us in the relaxed period that lasted some 10 days earlier this month too - .

You just doomed us 'till June with your impudence -

I funny ... speak of the devil man. I wrote a bit about that in the other thread re Feb in general...how we've had such difficulty with cold profiling passing over the boundary from mid range into outer short ranges.. . It's f'n bald faced doing it right in front of our eyes again. We're probably going to be 60 F to MHT, NH before this f're finishes in our bums. kidding of course - but there essence of kicking back NW is clearly real. But in a season of being dealt reversals... it would almost be fitting if the seasonal trend was accounted for, THEN have it actually be colder - anything to ruin the fun ahead of time. Hahaha

This may turn into a now cast nightmare ... That Thursday evening tries to peel away the first wave and associated plausible meso cellular circulation and that might draw a tuck circulation down, setting up icing for the next - and that's the sort of discrete scenario that is under 3K feet and probably not well modeled by any guidance at this range frankly - I mean, this could also just be like four waves across 2-days of light to moderate snow/mix ice and/or cold rain ... dart board transition axis anyway. Good luck nailing down your zones -

There's a 'needle thread' aspect to this ordeal.. It's got narrow margins for error whenever a system is sort of pulled out and biased in the length coordinate. Think of it ( metaphorical ) as meridian flows like circle systems, and progressive pancake rifle bullet flows like lines. EDIT: I guess the last several post should have been/move to the event's thread ?

Haaaa hahaha... Actually, I'd say we've been having polyp procedures since 2015 myself... but heh -

Yeah I'm a little spooked by the overnight runs my self. I could see the whole scale baroclinic axis up and bump NW at say 48 or 60 hours lead, ...leaving chicken counters holding empty shells, going, 'Whaaa' Problem is ... it's happened on more than a single occasion this season. There's been failures to relay colder solutions in general, into short range from the mid ranges. Something about this particular year's 'emergence' phenomenon ( if you will..); it has been persistently against colder snowier icer winter going across that ~ temporal boundary; it seems to be happening most frequently at around that time range ...somewhere between 48 and 72 hours. This is a candidate for that imho. Not saying it will.. I do still believe that the fast nature of the flow should stretch things, and that stretching should actually ease off the 500 mb observations you are making - which are clad btw, but I think there is correct-ability toward flatter, which actually helps in this scenario as we've been discussing. So, we inched toward a colder look for several cycles recently, and that fits. But the 00z - imho - actually ticked back NW slightly ... almost just by a less coherent panache of the whole thing, and that's a direct homage to season tendency discussed above like it's bursting with desire to bend over this social media patronage for another sore-butting... and got so anxious it exposed its inevitable intent to do so. Mmm... I'm still too scarred by the former sort of "synergistic" tendency to f-up a winter solutions to let that 'hint' just go unrecognized myself. So we'll see.

In any case ...there are actually two ice storms almost properly modeled on this 18z run .. which I'm sure you've collectively acknowledged but 90+ pages is plenty for me May y'all should start a new Feb one ...heh

As Ray would say - ...this is like Geoffrey Dahmer lecturing to an ethics committee -

That's D7.5 Euro is a classic NJ model nuke...

...and I may be an hour behind consensus here but the Euro appears to be arriving with a substantive SE adjustment... Ways to go -

That ICON solution outs the grid overnight Thursday, period -

The GFS carried suggestion for a longer duration event ...and others mentioned it - but the context of 'merely remarking over the model's depiction' might have gotten stripped away.

There's probably some interpretation and significance -related subjectivity to these analysis ...haha, to put it nicely. Will's point's true in the sense that the changes are minor wrt to total structure ( imho ) ... but, subtleties have big sensible impacts in this scenario. We really will have a pretty large, lead-side air mass bust potential.. .because we are transporting unusually warm air masses for 'typical winter' intrusions this year, but have these cold highs occasionally timed through S-SE Canada, where it can be 50 to 60 F colder by comparison. Remember that gig several weeks ago, when it was 64 in eastern CT, and like 29 in Nashua? It's been a fascinating year for gradient saturation... Anyway, imho, if the Euro bumps a little more NW again on this run, and the high in eastern Canada peels away six hour faster, ...those changes are whole-scale subtle, but become a pretty big sensible change in CT.

Lol, but hey ... we should give him props for setting that up. Nice.

Right ... random guess until the system's framework is more coherent -

I don't know about whole-scale changes .. but, I did detect an slight NW bump with the Euro toward the UKMET's 12z solution from yesterday, wrt to the Euro's 00z release. The other subtle, but perhaps hugely important change for me, is the handling of the surface pressure pattern over SE Canada. The Euro and in particular, the GGEM ..were more progressive with that high pressure ...peeling it away into the lower maritime bit faster - so it seems.. Admittedly, the 00z Euro I refer too comes from PSU E-wall, which panels every 24 hours... as does Tropical Tidbits, so exact matching is little trickier. One thing that also that occurs to me, .. I snarked ( half seriously) three or four weeks ago in a post how most cyclones this season have done one of two things: they've either corrected up the St L Seaway, or .. they've end up hugely over blown in the guidance and end up being almost nothing sweeping fronts and fragment baroclinic leafs off the eastern seaboard - this most recent serving as a nice example. You guys remember that 951 mb low over ACK run the GFS had some 10 or 11 days ago ...? Ha ha, we're saying the usual suspects like, "It's just eye-candy, but - " love the head game. So I'm trying to figure how this season trend/tendency to over top, or under whiff might be overcome this week. The only thing that really bucks that trend ... beyond just random pattern change ... is this advent of -EPO and cold loading.. It's tough to know how that is going to resolve into a pattern forcing - whereby storm tracks and types would play-out differently. Firstly, according to GEFs derivatives, the EPO really doesn't start neggie until next weekend, but it does seem like early flow constructs hint already. We'll see. But the 00z guidance, as is ... seemed to play into each's own specific bias type - aggressively so .. The Euro went a tick or two more meridian in total structure everywhere with low. Contrasting the GFS's stretching bias ...seems to just end up with a system closer to Eastern Seaboard, ending up there because it's gaining a longitude every 6 hours by a couple degrees ... Probably just compromise in favor of the Euro might be the course of least regret. Normally I'd side like 70/30, Euro/GFS respectively at D5 buuut, the flow is awful fast. That doesn't lend to shorter wave lengths like the Euro needs to get it's deeper Cleveland primary. I'd say since we are crossing into D4.5 for regions east of 110 W in the guidance, this 12z run might begin that gap closer. If the GFS bumps NW than the Euro may be more correct with a stronger primary that attempts to lift up the seasonal trend St L

Don't say dismissive shit like 'welcome to four hours ago,' when you clearly didn't pay attention to the content I specifically typed - and there for were out of line had no basis for sarcasm. Again, you folks didn't discuss specifically why the UK might be the less likely outcome; I offered some insight there - which you wise cracking was baseless at out of line. You were just wrong dude - I pointed that out, you don't like. Tough. Which by the way, is dick heady