Typhoon Tip

Gave this some thought last night ... not that any of this really matters in the grand scheme of our collective war against reality - But not getting a storm between today and the 24th (or so) of the month, really shouldn't be deemed as an operational blindness. I think the fact that these parallel GFS operational runs are illustrating these dubious convectively powered cold core outre physics sap-sucker lows that people only fail to contain giddiness for ... speaks volumes to the native numerical instability. But that instability IS the potential of this pattern, whether it storm is born or not. The problem always has been the dearth of impulses (S/W's) timed, ... a dilemma to amplitude that's been there all along. Since the aroma of strong +PNA first began painting on operational run depictions ... days and days ago ... that's been the plight. Incredible "lead the horse to water, can't make 'em drink" pattern. Wasted potential... Mensa kid on opiate addiction ... any metaphor where destiny and latency part company in sad way. Be that as it may ... Scott's right ... As we've repeatedly hammered (too) going back over a week's worth of the failure to produce a good modeling cinema for the users here ... so long as the +PNA is verifying and that western ridge flexes as it is ( now ) verifying, you just have to wait it out and either let it waste away, or... perhaps come to fruition from less typical lead antics.

gee ...didn't mean to kill the thread with that ... anyway, the UKMET with an impressive shift toward classic west Atlantic spring gale ... In fact, not an intrepid journey there to become a juggernaut if only N/stream were to dump anything in there instead of just dangling like a giant mammata bulb -

The idea of "unforeseen yet plausible short notice correction" was mentioned 10 days ago when it was painfully obvious then that this +PNA/ concomitant +PNAP period was depicted to evolve unusually devoid of S/W to take advantage and amplify. Why that is/was the case in this journey over the last week is odd, but such is life. Right now there a weak impulse almost indistinguishable being ejected out of the NE Pac... For the last couple of days it's been more detected by the Euro and some off-beat guidance types (actually) as arcing the NW Territories and that continues. I'm not sure if data sparseness/assimilation idiosyncrasies will suddenly atone for some dramatic improvement of that feature as it rounds the ridge and dives in ..but, should it do so it's a decent guess that the next many sampling cycles might pick that up. We'll see... The impetus there is that a stronger feature there would transitively induce more latter phasing... given the overall circulation, you're gonna need that.

yeah...that guy ejected through the west there at D9/10 ... too bad we're at the end of the frames cause that look usually has one destiny

It's funny after that ... the model tries to run a 500 mb February storm look with early April 850 mb thermal medium coast to coast. Interesting... Probably a dynamical/blue bomb petri-dish out there... but, concomitant with that look and this time of year there is 0 predictive skill.

12z Euro illustrates a lot .. Explains rather nicely why later winter enthusiasts are being personally violated (ha) ... But -ta, that D4 tells the story of a phenomenal pattern that has utter twaddle to work with downstream of the +PNA created ridge. That pallid 546 dm, 500 mb impulse ... track that backward to D1/2 ..you can see it get ejected out of the E Pac, ride up and over the ridge, and then dives down toward the Missouri Valley thru D5; but what gets eject and completes the course work is a big huge piece of weak shit... It's ...poooossible though probably less than plausible (haha... that's awesome) that it's underdone, but that thing being so weak is really the whole corn-holing along the EC. Noormally in that sort of over all structural evolution, there is much more to that diving impulse, but it's just been a repeating theme for days if not a week's worth of cycles that there is just no and/or very weak intermediate stream S/W available to that down stream negative heights ... to the point of being just weird to see. I'd be willing to bet that the way the Euro has/had that look is in fact a negative anomaly relative to those overall flow structures/ridges of the past. I mean, quantifiable -

It's interesting ... but despite the foreign model types, pretty much unilaterally all having a mid/extended range amplitude bias (however subtle or gross, notwithstanding) ... the run-up saga to this PNA in the models has always been the GFS product suite that's kleenex and hand-lotioning storminess. It's hard to figure that out and why. I wouldn't be shocked if we see the CPC version off the PNA continue to drop off nearing April 1 ... one or two members sagged yesterday; I thought at the time, 'yup, there it is... tomorrow we'll see them all start to do that, en masse' and low and behold, they are. Just looking at the EPS mean thru D10 where free/available gives 'nough indication that the GEF's PNA might be amped relative to -

Probably by a narrow wedge and three or so hour we'll end up with a decent afternoon looking at sat trends..

Ah yeah, right ... You know me I can be rather lazy with dates... So everything I said, just move it up one day - haha

I know... - solid pun by the way. But, for me, the week surrounding the event was an incredible journey and education in operational Meteorology. If I recall, there was an early model run ... perhaps a D8 depiction from the (then) MRF, indicating what actually came close to verifying: a deep closed 500mb anomaly passing quintessentially underneath Long Island.. But it faded too far east on Tuesday and Wednesday's runs. Harvey Leonard comes on air Wednesday evening and I recall his words still coherently in my memory, " ...Should this ever pass under Long Island..." It was vindication for my own insights at that time, just hearing a legend mention it in those turn of phrases. I don't recall what the models really looked like Thursday and Friday ...those were typically pub hop social nights pulling easy distraction, and between the Old Worthin' House and the Green Shamrock, with no classes scheduled until 2 pm on Thursday and none on Friday (what I'd give to have that era back), pretty much those two days were a weekly memory gap to put it mildly. Come Saturday morning ... typically keyed the Lab and got caught up with models through a haze of torpid awareness coffee and a lingering headache. That day, it was already 63 F up on the station monitor and it was 11:55 am - the storm would strike overnight Sunday into Monday. You know how it goes ... 63 with March 30th sun strength up on a university campus... The dorm halls were burst out onto the commons with typical shenanigans of the 19 thru 24 year old age group [ enter specifics here ]. Frisbees floating over woman prostrated to blankets in two-pieces exposing bums far to delicious to have the brains they had, while dudes that probably look back from today's temporal perch and internally say, "...why did it play it that way - I'd give anything to have that back" as they twitch their eyes in favor of their square-butt middle aged nag of a wife. Oh, jesus... where was I. Anyway, so I'm walking over University Ave bridge there en route to Fox Tower dining hall for brunch, and the sky was sparsely strewn with shallow cu leaning S, while the air beneath waved like you see over an African savanna. There was no wind. 63 ... may as well have been 82 with that sun, and as I walked passed these scenes and doing the occasional head-nod-wut-up to randoms I recognized, I remember thinking just how little anyone in that setting had any clue what was about to befall them. Because those weather charts that morning showed a deep closed anomaly passing quintessentially underneath Long Island. Year's later I learned that the entire seven or so days of the run up to that event, ...NWS internal products had a lot of "smear" in the ensembles back west during some of those earlier mid-week cycles that portrayed the thing as stretched and amplifying toward NS/way out there... My life has been an uninspired failure ever since.. But I still have those memories to hide in whenever the former realization tries to downtrodden my days.

Yup ... connected the dots on that facet yesterday 'round 1pm with slate gray skies - ... I simply murmured in the internal monologue, 'what a bullshit bust'

in my little weird obsession I'm sooo buckin' for a 16" late blue bonnet to cap this season with an average number despite the personal violation in how it was delivered -

Right - it's why I don't - personally - carry any illusions about what the last two weeks of this month are likely to sensibly/operationally be like. No lawns greening prior to April 1 I'm "partially" checked out ha!

The para GFS wasn't actually too far from meaningful impact earlier than that ... I mean, strong +PNA ridge out west and 174 hours out in time are correctable - but I know I know ...such lucid objective reasoning has no basis in a collective of jilted winter lovers, huh

actually... The GFS may be trying to target right under our noses. That clipper on the 00z and 06z system - as I'm sure this has been mentioned ... - is rather robust, and deepens a classic NJ model low into the 980s passing near the BM... circa 96 hours. Thing is, it's gotta do better than that. As is typical for narrow latitude critters their impact is also relatively narrow. But this system is arriving into the east on the steep PNA rise so there's some modulation potential there - Ah, never mind - I screwed up my time stamps. I've noticed if clicking around in TT that guy f-ups you up about "when" you are looking at what -

Heh, seems the best this positive PNA will throw over N/A's a cold wave over NE ... I mean, it's like literally doing that - stretching the field so that it can't storm but resolidifies the Earth in New England. awesome haha

Hi, ...just so we're clear, the "signal" was the change toward a meridian circulation structure over N/A; those that are well-correlated with the +PNA phase. Looking for a specific event withing that regime change has been a bear ...but is also a different event/daily effort. If one sees something amplifying into a flow change like that described above, that becomes a different sort of ... I guess signal - but we weren't up to this point ever actually following anything that specific... The era of interest if you will was the 17th through ~ the 24th or so and that remains, so long as the PNA does indeed sequence through that robust positive SD. I mentioned with half-sarcasm days ago that it was puzzling that the models et al were failing to in fact pick up on anything inside the period of amplitude - referring to it tongue-in-cheek as a "gutted PNA" ... still as of now, it is amazing to see that robust of a ridge and have such a pallid coupled downstream trough and/or impulse timed to take advantage of that... It just may come down to bad luck (don't tell ..whoever hates the word) that there's no S'W available spatial-temporally. The heights over Florida and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin are also compressible .. the velocities down. There's really is an open-door opportunity for mad EC amplitude with that western ridge ... Yet the Euro swashes the whole structure half way to England and leaves the enter thermal tapestry S of the border in mid May by D9.... It is possible that the "signal" in so far as the pattern orientation will be proven a red herring all along, and have trouble reaching the amplitude of the American -based tele spread; we'll just have to see which way it goes and we'll probably start to get a better sniff of it Saturday+

mmm Not like this ... It may "blue ball" this time - it may. But at no time really this winter has the PNA been progged dual both agencies to this type of magnitude, for this long. Having said that... the Euro doubled down on the ignore PNA look by full blown Chinook spring blasting the entire continent below the 50th parallel... It's amazing how contradictory that is ...really. You know...can't say I'd hate that if we were 72 for three days on a west wind

Agreed with Will.. also add - the models may be too quick to collapse the ridge/founding circulation that led to it's construction ... to liberally. Sometimes when there's a whole scale pattern change ... that kind of handling can get stochastic.

Yup! And the GEF's have been all over it for quite some time. I don't speak to the EPS derivatives - as far as I know, there are no free sites for " EPS -based NAO, EPO...WPO, PNA" ...etc. But, the CDC and CPC agencies have been way more amplified and in modality than the operational models across the board have been willing to acquiesce to.. which is a mystery ... that much weight being ignored. It's happened before though. Sometimes when both the higher resolution operational models (GFS and ECMWF) agree on a one look, the ensemble mean will collapse in that favor regardless of the antecedent signal. So, there's no way to tell if that's going to happen this time, or, the operational runs will come around to and suddenly plumb the Equinox heights over the east. Could certainly go that way too -

not over the Euro beyond D5 ... or any model for that matter at that range - Personally ...so long as the tele spread shows these from the Americans... I wouldn't discount the chance that we suffer seemingly endless runs of modler's attempting to dampen out storms in lieu of their own resumes... only to have something get more interesting around 108 hours of some shit

ha haha... altho - probably bullshit.

It is not physically/mathematically possible to be more mind numbingly uninspired in this Universe, than that 12z Euro run - ...really pretty remarkable...

Yeah...that too - that's sort of built into the " ...used kitty litter" snark - haha. right tho... The GGEM is interestingly the only run that seems to be at long last making use of the period nearing the Eq. which I believe ( barring a bowler) is the last super synoptic scaled - supporting hurrah of the dying winter. The swan song .... We'll just have to see if said bird is flopping in the yard with a broken wing -

Meh... it can be frustrating if one is hoping to gather present insights from others.... ? but in this case, it's 45 and sill air sunshine on the Ides of March ...with used kitty litter in the models - I think we should cut folks a break and relax the posture a little.