Typhoon Tip

Told you CPC would have to knock down the tenor for "excessive northeast heat" for that D 5. The Euro pushing back constantly toward and beyond D6's is really just it correcting it's own amplitude bias as it ages those frames in later cycles... That original excessive bold percentile claim is/was set to begin tomorrow...when it will be 59 F at dawn and smell of low tide clear to Springfield Mass...heh. Maybe not so extreme as that, buuut...there's no deep tropospheric heat signal available to the northeast - to wit, we assume that to mean New England in this context. Frankly ... there is heat over the continent - it's not for lack of supply and demand. It is, however, a delivery problem... I actually give the models a bit of a break on this one, too. They were correct to see the subtropical heat expansion scenario. That much is evident both in the hydrostatic heights and the hypsometric thicknesses permeating south of ...~ 38th parallel across the continent... etc. But, what's happening above that latitude is the arrival of an unseasonably strong polar jet that wasn't really part of those original ensemble visions of a week ago.. It's sort of insidiously albeit relentlessly gain presentation from the N .. slowly correcting and pressing the heat south on every cycles spanning some five day's worth. I'd also give more of a nod to the GFS operational than the Euro on this one, too, because the GFS was always tending to ablate the heat dome's N arc ... running vorticity and jetlets over the top preventing as much liberal polarward migration of the warm 850 mb conveyor... Contrasting, the Euro's correction schemes may seems to emerge a negative performance with that model, one that I've come to find is more express-able over North America perhaps than other quadrants of the N. hemisphere ( geophysical circumstantially). What it does is tends to fall back to whatever signal it happens to be managing at D4 ... turning the page into D6 ( as does it's EPS mean, too) and then runs away with whatever remains - which unfortunately for it, that means it tends to look over amplified in the extended(s). It's the antithesis to winter, why there's too oft D8/9 phantom east coast bombs with the Euro. But in summer ridging ... I mean you look at this, ...it's kind of hard to run a heat transport to the 40th parallel and beyond ...with that giant grinding jet and power R-wave structure in place. If one has a modicum of real Meteorological and climate wit and wisdom about their ability to analyze, this is anomalous flow for mid summer. Orienting in parallel some 5 to 7 hydrostatic lines circumnavigating such definitive R-wave construct for mid summer - frankly, this is the summer variant of the jet velocity saturation issue that was observable in recent winters... It's taking a gradient saturated hemisphere in both cases, just that in the summer,...less so. I've seen that kind of R-wave signature and velocity balancing in February back in the 1990s... Rare, and it takes a relaxation period,... but it's f'n July. This should not look this way... Moreover, whenever the models may relax that N jet structure even a little bit, right away, we get more heat...so it's like precariously we are on the fence.. and noise will dictate which side we land on...

In more ways than one... considering that going above normal is the new norm in itself. There's a kind of cultural adaptation/acclimation going on with folks, because we are +1 to +3 since June 1... Logon is 0 for July ( 14 days worth is a pretty remarkable achievement idiosyncratically, actually...) but otherwise, we gather a "typical" impression from above normal. A true 0.0 month would be bitching about cold anomalies - heh... interesting.

Very similar synoptically to the cool down over a week ago. Weakly low scoots seaward but this one has more actual surface high

Na na na-na na “Watch unlikely...”

We have tall turrets punching the altostratus level here.... I'm a fan of early CU behavior/morphology ... and typically when I've seen that the day performs reasonably well so we'll see. Nice crispy edges with corpuscular bubblet structures... so perhaps the ml lapse rates are better, or CAPE is over performing give or take

it's one of those time-dilation mornings where the clearing line is racing NE on sat vis looping but is always SW of you in person...

Two schools ... sort of offset optimism: in one regard the ML lapse-rates I don't "think" are very good today? They really can't be because the primary frontal slope's now E of the coast by a hair and that means that the antecedent thermal dynamic profile ( pre frontal..) is now mid tropospheric/dispersive above the boundary, and that should be a CIN factor... That said, there could also be intervening layers that offer some instability via evaporative cooling from early turret decay and then sequencing bubbling up ... in other words, the post frontal evironment isn't very convincing 'scrubbing' the air mass, either. in the other regard, ...our climo is usually requiring forced ascent to overcome what is typically poorer SB CAPE to ml d(t) ...which seems to really be the magic ratio for me/ years of observation... Lot of factors contribute, but >50% of the day's success in the Plains is almost always llv CAPE up under a cool/cooling mid level temperature... One overcoming factor though is fluid mechanical lift.. perhaps some ratio of decreasing ML lapse rates/mitigation is then in turn offset by diffluence aloft. You can see there's the latter on early satellite, with cirrus streaks kiting right along over the top of a mid level showers that are not exactly slowly moving through in their own rights... all over a surface that's almost calm... so there's tilting/pulling

18z GFS finally gets the 588 N of our latitude over a convincing period ... Many cycles since it’s done that ...

We need that Sanoran heat release/sourcing like the Euto’s been advertising in the xtensed to actually get into the short range ...just seems to be a permanent fixture out there in the extended but it never seems to mature or last rather crossing into the 84, 96 or even day 5 range Probably flips around in late November and we have a permanent apocalyptic blizzard bomb that never comes either

Kind of hard to when the dpoints are so high 850 m bar temperatures 17+° now seems like for the past 10 days ...on a west wind in a dry adiabat we should probably be 94°

Vehemently agree ! It’s supposed to be starting tomorrow and yet it’s still day 6

Whatever happens ... high probability it happens in a relentlessly screaming rage of jet velocities ...

I’ve been trying to explain to people about expanding Hadley Cell phenomenon which is being papered and science all over the world ... Yeah this among other evidences fits that

sneaky brutal N of the Pike ... we have 86 to 89 at all home stations networked into Wunder that are within 5 clicks of mi casa and they all have DPs 75 to 79F ! it's not a trivial HI, no -

One of those nights in the urban centers I wonder

Good heavens! Are y'all actually still trying to win -

They may be on the verge of significantly adjusting that threat assessment to a 'nah, never mind' status - Looks like the opus in summer fake-outs by the models just made everyone a fool - EPS punching the Pac jet across the N-Tier like that will ablate the ridge pancake meaningless with strafing MCS that probably even end up turning right before the get here. We get a nothing ... for ever - It's called the wah wah waahhhhhh pattern for summer enthusiast. Otherwise known as 'New England'

yeah...no dependability with that heat signal - hard to say if that's just typical day 7+ follies, though obviously there is some of that in that sort of time range... but this has been the seasonal tempo this year, to consummately put up those big warm signals and then watch the models cleverly dismantle them... watch us end up with a shot across the bow autumnal trough - in july no less..hahaha. kidding but it seems continentally there is too much heat forcing out around 110 west to expect ridging east ...something like that... not surprised the Euro backed away from the bd though...it's done that, too, whenever the residual trough tries to move/fill NE and smear out it sees a 12 hour wind of mass in GOM and can't resist the geophysical feed-back in creating those. thing is, ...that's how they happen...so it's hard to 2nd guess - the 00z probably ridge bulges back some .. who knows how much. but we've been sloshing at large scales 00z's being warmer, for several days now.

I imagine there is some problems with the guidance et al because of the system's poorly organized and pallid structure - If/when that gets better vertically oriented and presentable in terms of physical momentum in the grids ...other than a llv swirl that occasionally farts out an anvil ...there might be more consistency. The other aspect is, the variances et al are not that huge anyway - but the sensitivity is necessarily high because a band'll dump 3" and nada two towns away...

interesting parsing effort for that statement ... buut, the cultural relativity from ethos to ethos in this country is a funny comparison exercise. I lived from my unfortunate exposure to this world through 14 years of age in the Battle Creek -Kalamazoo, mid-way Burger King rest-stop between Chicago and Detroit's marvelous blight trades. Back whence, southern lower Michigan pathos was achieved by exited failed mid 20th Century industrial islets amid a sea of otherwise cow-shit and corn-stalks as far as the eye could see. It's changed ... ing, in the last 20 years... with farm-lands recovered and converted into single-story mall complexes and a lot of triglyceride restaurants that skirt college arty wannabes ...but at least they're trying. Back in the day... you bolted your car with a double fractal encryption encoded locking systems that God couldn't get into if it meant saving the Cosmos if you dared run into the corner store for a bottle of "pop" - as they called sodas there. Houses? Forget it... you posted Ninjas with light sabers. My family moved to Rockport Massachusetts early in the summer of '84. No one locked anything. I thought that was the weirdest thing I'd ever heard of... At a friend's house, we leave, "Aren't you gonna lock the door?" furled confusion in the face. He looks at me like I just arrived from planet Zarcon and so it's understandable that I don't know the ways of the human species, "Noooo ...why would anyone do that?"

...typically you will find them in a 69.8/49 F environmentally controlled setting

88 to 90 / 70 to 75 here in interior SNE is enough - heat adv criteria ...probably could/shoulda been expanded but whatever .. .in "or around" definition should suffice. but wow, ... ASOS DPs are 70 to 75 ... who paid 'em off to admit that -

days are long ... I suppose it's imaginatively possible we could transition into a quasi, albeit weak TC sounding through dawn...out the ass end by noon... through a transient mid level stranded CIN plume dull afternoon...that moves off and 'unlids' for a late ... yeah ... good luck populating grids at NWS heh...

nah... what's likely to happen is a latent heat conversion, transient beta-synoptic scaled plume of mid level heat gets abandoned when the vertical structure wanes and ceases and leaves it behind, and that'll effectively CIN the asshole shut like a bull's ass at fly time... 77 DP and 5,000 CAPE choked closed for business.... Save for that one cell over Mt Greylock that rains 5.7" in 2 hours and doesn't move and takes out a campsite of Boy scouts -

I don't know .. that hi resolution visible looping is pretty fantastically convincing to me... this is an exposed center devoid of anything ...with a displaced wall of squally showers well to the E of best fix... RECON will definitely bias toward that convection as part of their "near land PR modis operendi" but in reality, this Meterologist needs to see a glaciated cu tower at all near that exposed center - and...preferably have the plume not moving across the low-level cyclonic axis of rotation. So yeah...add shear to the limiting factors... Also, I put the 12z on 36 hours over at TT and clicked prev 5 times and across all those cycles, other than very minor insignificant variances...the solutions are identical - GFS operational... So, it may be wrong, but I don't see the model having continuity issues in a vacuum ...