Typhoon Tip

I often mention FOUS numbers ...but few seemed to acknowledge when I do - heh... so taken for whatever discarded worth this may be... The wind between the LGA-ALB-BOS 'triangulum' is averaging 220 degrees at 18z today... so, that tends to argue that ORH being nestled betwixt these locales ...will likely see a wind between 210 and 230... just adding to you're argument... But here's the thing, this is an anomalous heat delivery scenario for New England/NE and upper MA in terms of typology for big heat... We don't typically get 95+ bakery mist on laminar west structured 500 mb flows... We more typically get them from a ridge nodes, where if anything...we're sort of are lighter and WNW at 500 mb with a well-timed expulsion of SW EML/kinetically charged air that got 'captured' during the building phases of said ridge...such that the dragon fart rattles around inside... blah blah.. I'm looking at the overall structure of this ( step back, super-synoptic/hemispheric) and it's almost like a non- Rosby wave heat delivery... That said, heights are higher than normal across our quatra-hemispheric scope in general...so we're getting this heat excursion out of a non traditional delivery/set-up... Less 'nodal' and more from conveyor .. It just makes me wonder if a SW flow 98+ being unusual at Logan too, is also more plausible given to the anomalous nature of the larger circulation circumstance... fascinating.. HC heat wave?

Mm... it would be unusual to tag 100 off a low of 64 though - I'm not absolutely certain of that ... but by and large most days in my experience, having lived in both rural and urban environments over eastern Mass over the last 35 years ... is that when the high temperature exceeded even 96 .. but 98 F the low temperature were convincingly warmer than last night. The "launch pad" phrasing isn't merely rhetoric - just sayn'... It'll be an interesting now-cast for nerds. Given that the 850mb thermal axis (*nearing or even exceeding +21C ...) passes over 18z to 00z ( supposedly perfect timing too) yet the temperature stalls at 97 .. 98 in the MOS ... That's a shirk job for that temp at that level/adiabat. Oh yeah... And, given the lows being chilly ( relatively so...) may be why that fails to be 100. The standard model from that sigma should be about 104 in the 2 meter logarithmic asymptote. It's almost like we make 98 today as actually as a statistical anomaly relative to these lows .. but, because we missed the elevated starting temps...we lose a key "thermal momentum" ...so we get hot as donkey ballz but no 100... maximizing off a 65 low, but falling short of 21 C air layer... Delicious confusion fodder for petty argument- nice... But, it's quibbling over minutia when it's 97 anyway... I just sayn'... I don't think it is so easily dismissed as a concept and predictive usefulness to look at antecedent morning conditions... Not that anyone is... straw-manning here. In fact, I would almost put money down on the following: most 100 days have a mix-out key interval that does the final sort of relay/goose to the temperature.... It's a micro-physics study really.. but we need that 96/74 F hover there at 2pm to suddenly mix out at some key BL failure/pop and then the DPs drops to 68 and the temp pops to 100.5 ...I am almost willing to bet, that most days that tagged 100 had this behavior or quasi/hinted in the DP curves... Where as, drier days tend to use up all that time rising such that it's 99 by 5:30 ... interesting

Not our forum but heh... 18z drops PHL to frigid 88 for a low Sunday night - Interestingly...has LGA 83 for low ... and Boston low 70s ... but it's pretty clear that Boston is getting ventilated from the SSW/indirect marine wind that model's trying desperately to bend into eastern Mass late tomorrow. It's almost west PHL-LGA-ALB but is SSW east... edit: read the wind intervals wrong ...anyway

You can actually have heat bursts outside of the mountains in all seriousness though - I remember one in April ... 2006 I think it was. They're not as dramatic but they can happen. That would not be taking place in this synoptic scenario ...

I'd say add 3 ... maybe 4 across the board save Falmouth - it's just only past 18z and we typically get that 2nd/tertiary exclamation spike not 'till what ... 4:30-ish ...? Maybe just 2 ... but we're not heading down yet and we're surpassing MOS confidently ...

Lol... yeah, I just thought that would be funny to say ... although - hmm, now that I think about it..it does seem around town here in Ayer that I do cook a tick or two above FIT or BED ... ASH... Maybe not ASH so much... Nashua, not sure what it is about that site but they're a bakery - By the way folks, is there an obs thread for this thing? I'm 91 average at the three home stations within a mile of mi casa ... meanwhile, it's just nicking 90 now at FIT/BED ..etc... I suspect Boston will be 96 and Logan will be 83 until the wind flips at Logan around 4:58 pm when the city grabs ankles and rips what it thinks of using an island in the Harbor to describe Comm Ave. In any case, we have a more active W to WSW breeze rustling trees here ...kicked in right at 90 and the wind feels hot - you know? that special quality under a uncontaminated sky too. This will be an interesting night as the EML inversion really slabs over and we we can't radiate Earth release through a warm layer... I wonder if the wind flips at Logan kidding aside, it pops of 93 or 94 ...then it's 80 or 85 still at midnight... Urban centers and poor families on 3rd floors ftl tonight -

Funny ... the NAM/MET MOS is shaving degrees on the 12z interpolation ...not sure I see that happenin' ... but meh, 97 .. 98 whatever - ...93 at LGA seems pretty bullshitty though

I am "100" percent sure every home station tied into the Wunder' network will be 101 when it is 99 at KBDL/KHFD/KFIT/KBED/KBOS/KASH/KMHT/KPWD ...

60000547325 00191 113008 81332416 That's PHL, 12z NAM FOUS numbers for Monday afternoon... I love that 33C at T1 ...so that could put up 2-meter of 38 C given that WNW wind, BUT... might be difficult to achieve that with that RH2 > 50% though.. Could effect that log-p ... What's funny is LGA and BOS are shy by a couple clicks (30 to 32C) but have critial RH levels at or less than 50% indicating they don't have contamination ( as much...) on this particular run and model, for that same time frame... So, they could actually 2-meter as warm or warmer if they have the 1 to 4pm open sky...

Ah ..okay - so you were being quick and dirty - right ...should not take the banter of the wild-wild-west of the internet to heart ...lol... Yeah, I mean... that sort of discrete analysis is needed blah blah

Tend to agree... Particularly as the summer ages... It's more than half over in climo parlance ... but, insolation dimming is factorable earlier for us than PHL - lol.. but it is... I remember 22 C/850 mb day in 2002 once and we only made 96 F ... The forecast was 101 and heat warnings were banner'ed ... But, from 10:55 am to 1:34 pm a decapitated CB plume was of course ... not modeled from off the shore -front nocturnal nuances of upstate NY, wafts overhead and nope... I remember it being 94 at 10am ...and I'm off to the races in my mind with the old "10 after 10" and "90 by 9" adages ...etc.... Two more clicks is all we could muster for the milk sun... and since the DPs were only low 60s for that one I'm not sure we really verified warning -+22C at 850 ...pedestrian heat. Welcome to "Nuance England"

Question for you... When you guys trace your adiabats and/or use machine interpolation and/or just 'rain-man' it ... do you guess the stop sigma at 1000 mb level... I've come to find that this is insufficient for the 2-meter ( ...kind of an intuitively obvious statement and I know I'm preaching to the choir) ...but, it seems pretty obvious to me also that the lower 20 to 50 mb of the logorithmic slope cannot be addressed that way - if/when one stops at 1000 from 21C/850 elevation ... they will be too cold in "perfect" heating scenarios. I've actually measured this to be true... 21C can easily 2-meter a 100 F on Rt 9 out in Metro West of Boston and city fart 99's to Logan if the wind is right too... DP notwithstanding -

Quick comment on this 07/18/2020 00z operational Euro run ... That D8 is nothing shy of an astoundingly hot layout across everywhere ... W of 80W and S of the 50th parallel, across the CONUS! What does one's snark want to call that ... the largest ubiquitous layout 100 F readings since the late Ordovician ? My god... Pittsburgh to San Francisco is 20 to 28 C at 850 mb ... everywhere But, we notice... one way or the other... the model won't included NE - no shocker there... Anyway, there is a pretty strong signal in all the ensemble means to bulge the heights around Chicago from D6 to 8.5 in there ... I'm watching that. .. because the whispers of the "non-correlating summer teleconnectors" do offer some support for WAR-bridging into that region. But, ...probably owing to the extended time range more so than anything else, ... we see the usual hemispheric dance of first building the ridge nodes 90 to 80W and than immediately pulling/retrograding them back to the perennial N/A base-line that re-situates the ridge over the Rockies... which is code for that could just be losing the signal do to normalization/'beta' correction more than anything else... So we'll have to see where that goes... I'm also a bit leery of the Euro's front ... the GFS for that matter... The latter is understandable - it stretches everything embarrassingly W-E beyond D4's regardless of season, planet or galaxy... so, having 0 physical means to drive a cold front half way across the Atlantic is perfectly a viable solution to that thing... But, the Euro as quick as D4.5 has the flow paralleling the front by late Tuesday and rightfully... stalls the boundary for frontalysis or wobble right through the area ... I could almost see this correcting toward a wash, and having the heat from Sun/Mon settle out to just 90 through Thur before that aforementioned signal might portend another extreme .... perhaps notably related, the Euro did feature a couple few cycles in the lead up to this period that has more persistent heat signaled to 40 N ...

Mmm... I wonder what the model biases are wrt to specifically DP? The Euro DPs on Sunday are a suspiciously dry - just me ... Just a-priori synoptic existentialism ... we end up richer. Plus, academia teaches us that a 588+ DAM hydrostatic scaffolding supports higher hypsometric numbers ... then, compounding, we are already tracking a hypsometric plume that's successfully integrating a SW expulsion/EML kinetic air layer, together with continental biomist as it is ... those 57's of the Euro just come off as suspiciously dry to me... The NAM 'seems' like a better fit? Bit, that said...it could be too wet in its own rights. So as usual ...the art dictates the result ... how much or little does one use which guidance and/or morphology in mind synthesizes the right anticipation... That said... conceptually I'm not sure how we're deriving a hypsometric depth of 578+ dm with only 94 F ... It's like 94/76 or 100/66 ... take a pick - There's got to have some rich R vapor numbers in the ideal gas law lower to upper integral to do that... I can understand that the Euro may just be varying drier... but 57 to 60 over much of PA where it is 72-ish in the other guidance... that seems a little light. In any case the models ..the Euro is drier, no doubt. Where the 3KM NAM has a 68 to 73 DP air mass spread ubiquitously through NYS/PA/NJ/MA/VT/NH ... the Euro is tanning lawns... The NAM version interestingly also reflects the elevations changes rather nicely.. with d-slope regions at the lower end of that range, wavelet to the higher accordingly... It's either more right or high resolution garbage - lol

yeah... right, it's called EMT's ... to cart people off the fairway with eyes rollin' around and white foam oozing out of their trembling cooked skulls...

NAM is putting up dangerous numbers on Sunday. 580 thickness eeesh. 2-meter 98’s ALB and BTV about 95 BOS but that’s likely to even out. Either way 578-580 hypsometric with those kind of temps probably sends concurrent DP over 75 for dangerous HIs

Mesoscale Discussion 1253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020 Areas affected...much of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379... Valid 172304Z - 180100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 379 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 379. Storms increasing in southwestern portions of the WW will pose a risk for wind, hail, and isolated tornadoes over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...An ongoing, mature MCS has evolved across northern portions of the WW this afternoon. The leading edge of this MCS was demarcated by a stout outflow boundary located from near/just south of GFK westward to near N60. A surface trough extended south of N60 to near Y22. South and east of these boundaries, steep mid-level lapse rates and 70s F dewpoints were contributing to strong to extreme instability, and the influence of a subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming on the western edge of this pool of instability was contributing to new convective development along the surface trough. Over time, models (including CAMs/WoF and to a lesser extent coarser-grid operational guidance) indicate that these storms will grow upscale into forward-propagating linear segments and clusters that will pose a risk for large hail, damaging (perhaps significant) wind gusts, and a tornado or two. WW 380 has been issued south and east of the WW 379 to account for this potential scenario. North of the outflow, convective towers continue to deepen southeast of the Minot vicinity. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and appreciable cloud-bearing shear in the region, large hail is probable despite being rooted above the boundary layer. A couple of storms have developed appreciable mid-level rotational signatures, with should also increase the large hail risk and may contribute to isolated severe wind gusts. This threat should continue for at least a couple more hours. Pending convective trends, temporal extensions of WW 379 may be needed beyond the scheduled 01Z expiration. ..Weatherwiz; American WX Forum affiliate.. 07/17/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 48950191 49099867 49069587 48729519 47689533 47399629 47369785 46839896 46049980 45760116 45680263 45920334 46970329 48470252 48950191

yeah...I know... it's about on par as that 1998, March 31 event... I was up at the UML lab at 3:15 pm and it was 89.4 on the monitor ( locally), but the ASOS at the time had CAR, ME 37 F with a wind gust to 43 mph from NE.... We were like, ummmm -

This below shows an usual 500 mb set up that some how promotes that amount of BD ... which appears at a glance to be disproportionately strong compared - but...this was 1975 ...maybe this was 90% or something...

Then... day and half later there comes the 2nd assault ...but this one goes on to end the heat...

Here was August 1, 1975 ... first attempt at a BD fails and washes out like at the piers and docks of back Bay...

I've looked at those weather charts before yeah... Thing is, when it was ginning up to those hot house potentials ... there was a BD lurking just aching to come down but the height/ridge node bulging in was sort of hold it/biding time... When the heights began to deflate just a little it almost looks like the BD was exceeding the physics ... I almost wonder if the intense heat/buoyancy helped draw it SW...because the confluence axis was way way N of Maine...like really conceptually too far to have driven a boundary that far SW along the Maine Coast. Buut, I guess at 98 and 102 back to back, you sort of don't care how it gets there anymore -heh

Not to steal this "thunder" ( n'yuk n'yuk) but...I would go ahead and extend this risk right through the Lakes .. on into NYS/PA, NE and the upper MA frankly ...given to the fact that the wind is W at 500 mb at an unusually strong velocity along that 588 DAM hydrostatic height by 6 dm either side of that demarcator ... which concomitantly houses a pretty rich hypsometric plume underneath. I mentioned in my heat drafting in the other thread, that the MCS and or MCS/debris would be limiting factors as caveat emptors to heating potential - and still is... Thing is, if it initiates that far west it'll tend to pac-man right of the environmental flow and up S... then we get vil choked and dim sunned out of either interesting weather, heat or convection ...which is the ultimate goal of the butt-bang god controling NE weather ...so...better sacrifice those virgins ...haha

come to think about it ...that'd be a fun geek study to put up the top 20 high temperatures, ranked 1 to 20 ...with the wind direction at the time the temp was taken... Getting really tedious...the average wind in the 6-hours preceding... Then, add DPs - Do Nashua, Logan

yeah...I'm wondering if the winds can go more west in this new run... thing is, at our latitude, it's hard to move 77 legit DPs much over 95... I mean it can happen and has... rarely, but I doubt it was on a 210 wind when it did