Typhoon Tip

Oh well you know I’ve been bitching about GFS ablating ridges like some kind of cosmic scale grinder for the past three years frankly ha ha Ha but yeah. it’s been doing that it just seems to have a permanent barrier northwest flow between us and the Canadian maritimes and will just never get rid of it it’s almost like they parameterized the model to lock that there. Not to toot horns but I did warn people back in spring that the GFS was gonna be a real problem model for sniffing out heAt in New England and it’s been wrong about the last two heat waves because of that right as expected.

well...so, SPC echoes my thoughts above - whether they use other tools than the NAM or not...heh https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html "... Bowing line segments and clusters should be the dominant storm mode, with damaging wind gusts as the predominant severe threat. Deep-layer vertical shear decreases with southern extent, so the highest potential for more organized storms, and perhaps even a few supercells, exists from central PA into Upstate NY/Southern New England. In this area, the stronger vertical shear suggest slightly greater potential for hail and maybe even a tornado or two. Antecedent cloud cover and possibly a few showers could inhibit destabilization in the vicinity of the warm front, but the stronger shear still merits including this area in a 15% wind probability...." either way ...expansion of the SLIGHT area is warranted in my estimation as the general region still benefits from a theta-e stranded by only weak antecedent frontal tapestries ... and, now we're running 40 to 50 kt wind max over a sensy lapse rate... kind of a slam dunk... Throw in Lakefront and oreographic triggers and there we go.

wait is that making fun of a 'cool' run, or a 'warm' one...

Lots of 'rounding 90' s at Utah's source ... but the highs are probably 92 fated -

SPC obviously implements a variety of different tools to reveal risk areas that blah blah formulate their products, but ... just analyzing the NAM's last three cycles of trends for the basics ... the better of the two days is clearly Wednesday if using that guidance. You know back in the day ... a little known model factoid of excruciatingly nerdy tedium was that the then "ETA" model was a spectacular tool for "convection initialization" ... Oh, perhaps not down at the discrete level of what exact CU tower glaciated... but, it tended to perform well inside of 30 ... 36 hours, by depicting QPF distribution ...then convective attribute verification took place. 'Talking mid 1990s in the Plains ...but that was in general true. The ETA being the ancestral root of the NAM ( ...and notwithstanding it passed through the WRF bad-idea man-handling years too...), one could only guess if that esoteric obscurity still is true? I could see it being the case, and say... no one including SPC's even is aware of it any longer...Shit, considering the present day work force is headed up by my generation of slackers and cheaters?? Not much confidence such an obscurity even floats off-the-cuff conversation but ...I'm also an assholey cynic for recreation, too. Heh. But then again, the general dumbing down of higher order intellect running the world got us a narcissist, if not a patented sociopath into the most powerful sociological position ever to man a post of authority spanning 750,000 years of Human evolution, so... the evidence is damning; we live in an increasingly automated systemic modernization of conveniences ... addling the population-fluid into an unchallenged soup of e-zombies... Or, they're all geniuses ... tru dhat - Firstly, just as a personal experience ... back-to-back severe days in New England are exceedingly rare. The title of this thread is suspect and shamelessly wanton of bun-dom... Why? there are varied textured reasons for that. Just in a general mean, the synoptics that are needed for convection anywhere really are fragile ... It's just so uniquely favorable to load up those variables in the Plains it deludes us into thinking it's easy...That region is just perfectly designed geomorphologically to feed that - the Earth backing that region is like enabling.. like entitlement. Babbling... but the NAM's last three runs paint as though a right exit region of a 500 mb jetlett encroache upon the upper MA and SNE/CNE after 18z Wednesday ... consistently. Meanwhile, there is instra-model contention on handling the brambled mangled twisted pressure pattern from central NJ to S ME during Wed afternoon, with mottled light QPF nodes per run... That's pretty easily interpretable as a warm frontal diffusion and trouble in the guidance with that particular lead environment ..but I like that! You want light S tendencies along a diffused warn front, because... if we get some sky lights and warm the lower levels, we end up with SB CAPE under/within a positive direction shear...and then accelerate mid levels from the W..?. Our bulk shear thru deeper 0-6km over the top of the 0-3km SRH along warm frontal intrusion ... That looks like super cell potential to me SE PA to N. NJ... and probably bowing linear rip in CT and MA to southern VT ... It's not like a high risk or anything...but that 50kts of jet nosing in over substantive heating...with a lead side diffused warm boundary lifting toward CNE during the day ... plus, the hydrostatic layout ( heights) show some cyclonic orientation as well as a smidge of lowering toward and after 21z west to E ... This will probably then process the atmosphere out ...the next day may see late blooming activity as the southern end of the vestigial trough sharpens and we see the cyclonic curved flow accelerate again through 50 kts east of ALB around and post 21z on Thursday, but CAPE and previous day... it could be mechanical forcing.. Of course...that's what I'm seeing in the NAMs general last three runs... Who knows what extra-double, top-secret surreptitious convective-salacious sexy instrumentation they use that we don't even know about so that they look better than the increasingly tool-savvy public..

Looks like the NAM is backing off the frontal incursion ... allows another chance at 90 tomorrow. Actually turns Logan’s wind back south in shorter order too. Euro’s been hitting at less sag

Right plus ... I was making a pour assumption that Brian was comparing the 12z intervals. Lol Anyway I’m not sure I buy that solution anyway ... it seems it may be a buckled outlier of the EPS ... which the latter doesn’t have to be right of course. But convention dictates caution ... it’s been trending higher hydrostatic arc north of Lake superior and I think it’s trying to signal an evolution towards an over the top or flop heat delivery… It’s not like this season hasn’t been set up for one with all the continental tucking that we’ve been doing over the Maritimes seems like a northwest delivery is bound to happen sooner or later… Just a hypothesis

Heh... It may be 12z being the cool limb of the diurnal cycle with that 850 mb thermal rendition... I noticed that leading up to this recent warm bout, that the Euro was routinely warmer at 00z than 12z ... not always... ..say, 60 ... 70% of the transition comparison. I think the 850mb "breathes" so to speak, like it expands when the BL is is bursting into the gradient level...then, it recedes back to a slightly cool rest state at night...etc. But this run paints like there's simultaneous oddities probably owing to Euro biases... that being one, the other is that D8.5 sudden seasonal change over Ontario with those mechanics so powerful it induces an actual orbital wobble ... is probably it's penchants for doing that sort of bullshit in that time range... Heh, I guess the bottom line is ...there's heat on the charts and since we don't normally successfully get it up here without the Earth figuring out a way to f-it up and fail somehow, it's going to be muted one way or the other to pick a way -

That's a good climo point actually ... I forgot about that tendency Brian yeah. It may be our home-grown 'dry-line' ... where we lead the mechanics by a d-slope when the wind turns W or something - causing some lead frontal environmental sweep out... Wiz' can prolly attest to this but I've seen the belly of those troughs ignite and steal 11 am CBs seaward and then the front comes through with a half-masted hard-on tops later in the afternoon with a gutted WW out of SPC...oops ...

Mm .. not sure that's a cold front. As far as the geophysical analysis that is employed by theoretical Meteorology ... the front is still positioned west of ALB. I am seeing though a tendency for 1 to 3 F temp shed with a bit of a DP reduction that's diffused along an axis that bifurcates CNE/SNE N-S though so... not saying folks aren't detecting 'some'thing... I "think" or wonder if there is a weak sort of smearing outflow pool that's in the process of mixing out ..left over from the eastern Great Lakes convection last eve/overnight... That could be confused ...

That's so dystopian melodramatic ... can't they just say it was historically hot and list stats ? lol -

If you can keep the marine contamination from mixing in ...you'll be 94 - that'd be my guess... Did y'all look at anything other than pulling the curtains and seeing a gray sky and dismissing lol ... The entire heavens are superb for heating as clearing rockets east ...it's already peeled away in ~ EEN-Willimantic and that line is moving some 40 mph. With zero change in the nature or ability for temperature rise and only awaits the insolation tsunamis I bet most folks make 90. but we'll see...

Wow, what an inferno in the D6 to 10 operational Euro, huh - First, there's a possibility that we extend heat wave with aoa 90 all week really given a Euro evolution... With a frontalysis rotting ...only managing to stall bifurcating the 'peninsula' of SNE from PWD to NYC ...that is not a very effectually cooling the medium. We do see the very warmest 850 layer does suppress...but we have lingering 16 to 18 C paralleling the flow at 850 ...up underneath the 700 and 500 mb that are also laminar... and that's not really allowing for cleaner front suppression...

Wouldn't shock me if some folks witness a 12 F or more temperature burst between 10 and 11 am ( ~ ) ... Hi res visible loop just has that look ... distinct and pervasive clearing abruptly arrives west to east over the next hour... Cool boundary is still well west with on-going deep warm sector only presently capped by MCS/linear debris about to peel off and expose the land to misty blue sky that shimmers in irradiance, and a conditional atmosphere with tons of thermal momentum ( sloppy...) .. it just 'feels' like cicada heat incoming Today might 93/75 in backyards ... 72 at NWS tarmacs where it makes so much sense to calculate heat indices for civilians ( :axe ) ... someday, maybe...

Nam keeps Logan under 90 tomorrow now... has late afternoon thunder on the qpf layout so it's iffy - Actually looks 91-ish for Tuesday

yeah ... noticed the bouncing behavior too -...interesting, the adiabats support 2 to 3 more but... as you mention, with the wind only just now starting the wiggle tree tops we may yet mix out... hard to believe but - The other thing, bouncing or not we tend not absolute the max until 4 to 5 pm in there... I cannot imagine this atmosphere and circumstance requiring differently ... So far, MOS is admirable.

93 ORH

gotta say... even if it stops at 93 ...to be in above the 95th percentile "relative to the wind direction" - that's saying a lot about this air mass. wow! If it does some how make 95, it sort of underscores more so than the record because doing it backed is worth looking up the highest temps per wind direction...I wonder if 93 is a record for 210... Looking at high res vis im...some pop corn cu streets materializing now and they are exposing the environmental turn-over momentum and it's really looking more 230 or 240 out, despite the surface obs... Edit: not sure about rounding conventions but 17:54 put up a 92 at ORH

BED is 97 too... Yeah, we're probably popping a hundo at these spots... For one, the atmospheric adiabats support it... Even though the low end of the launch-pad, ...so, it may just be a rarer scenario where we get a 35 diurnal spread out of 65 for a low... It's completely clear ...utterly blemishless sky under insolation that's just a month older than the longest day of the year... It's just superb heating ... What makes one wonder what could have been with a fire-up temp of 74 and a WNW wind, huh

Mm.. T1 is symptom of the wind direciton... Southeast of a rough axis ... say, Willimantic CT to Bedford Mass ... anywhere over the region, heat enthusiasts are getting royally porked by the wind direction... Just look at ALB ... and compare the T1 to BOS ( which happens to be Logan...) ... Something is shaving 12 F off the nocturnals platform and it's got to be the Hemlock wind direction pulling in marine toxin from the S... This is why that 240 wind direction is key... SNE is hybrid climate ... it's a mash up of cold marine mix with blazing hot continent... You may as well put a ruler on a map between NYC-PWD...anything SE of there should have it's own climate distinction -

it's a quick and dirty kinda estimator for hundo chances around here... Say it is 90 F by 9 am = 100 has a fair chance with still 7 hours to get 10 F out squeezed out of our unique ability to fail... In Dallas, TX 90 by 9 is slam dunk...around here? We still rock-back and forth in angst even.. but 90 by 9 gives a bit of a cushion for fumbling around with errant intervals of wind or cloud contamination, ...because it's gotten to 90 so early...it doesn't have to be perfect in terms of those other parametric limitation. 10 after 10 means similarly... you only need 10 more degrees with six hours to of heating to play with.. but things have to be really really non-interfering because time is limiting... It's harder to get 10 after 11 and on and so on... They're just non-tested adages ..heh that seem to have intuitive usefulness

'10 after 10' failed too... But hey, look on the bright side - for once, MOS might actually nail the cap temperatures during strong heating potential ...

I often mention FOUS numbers ...but few seemed to acknowledge when I do - heh... so taken for whatever discarded worth this may be... The wind between the LGA-ALB-BOS 'triangulum' is averaging 220 degrees at 18z today... so, that tends to argue that ORH being nestled betwixt these locales ...will likely see a wind between 210 and 230... just adding to you're argument... But here's the thing, this is an anomalous heat delivery scenario for New England/NE and upper MA in terms of typology for big heat... We don't typically get 95+ bakery mist on laminar west structured 500 mb flows... We more typically get them from a ridge nodes, where if anything...we're sort of are lighter and WNW at 500 mb with a well-timed expulsion of SW EML/kinetically charged air that got 'captured' during the building phases of said ridge...such that the dragon fart rattles around inside... blah blah.. I'm looking at the overall structure of this ( step back, super-synoptic/hemispheric) and it's almost like a non- Rosby wave heat delivery... That said, heights are higher than normal across our quatra-hemispheric scope in general...so we're getting this heat excursion out of a non traditional delivery/set-up... Less 'nodal' and more from conveyor .. It just makes me wonder if a SW flow 98+ being unusual at Logan too, is also more plausible given to the anomalous nature of the larger circulation circumstance... fascinating.. HC heat wave?

Mm... it would be unusual to tag 100 off a low of 64 though - I'm not absolutely certain of that ... but by and large most days in my experience, having lived in both rural and urban environments over eastern Mass over the last 35 years ... is that when the high temperature exceeded even 96 .. but 98 F the low temperature were convincingly warmer than last night. The "launch pad" phrasing isn't merely rhetoric - just sayn'... It'll be an interesting now-cast for nerds. Given that the 850mb thermal axis (*nearing or even exceeding +21C ...) passes over 18z to 00z ( supposedly perfect timing too) yet the temperature stalls at 97 .. 98 in the MOS ... That's a shirk job for that temp at that level/adiabat. Oh yeah... And, given the lows being chilly ( relatively so...) may be why that fails to be 100. The standard model from that sigma should be about 104 in the 2 meter logarithmic asymptote. It's almost like we make 98 today as actually as a statistical anomaly relative to these lows .. but, because we missed the elevated starting temps...we lose a key "thermal momentum" ...so we get hot as donkey ballz but no 100... maximizing off a 65 low, but falling short of 21 C air layer... Delicious confusion fodder for petty argument- nice... But, it's quibbling over minutia when it's 97 anyway... I just sayn'... I don't think it is so easily dismissed as a concept and predictive usefulness to look at antecedent morning conditions... Not that anyone is... straw-manning here. In fact, I would almost put money down on the following: most 100 days have a mix-out key interval that does the final sort of relay/goose to the temperature.... It's a micro-physics study really.. but we need that 96/74 F hover there at 2pm to suddenly mix out at some key BL failure/pop and then the DPs drops to 68 and the temp pops to 100.5 ...I am almost willing to bet, that most days that tagged 100 had this behavior or quasi/hinted in the DP curves... Where as, drier days tend to use up all that time rising such that it's 99 by 5:30 ... interesting

Not our forum but heh... 18z drops PHL to frigid 88 for a low Sunday night - Interestingly...has LGA 83 for low ... and Boston low 70s ... but it's pretty clear that Boston is getting ventilated from the SSW/indirect marine wind that model's trying desperately to bend into eastern Mass late tomorrow. It's almost west PHL-LGA-ALB but is SSW east... edit: read the wind intervals wrong ...anyway