Typhoon Tip

18z GFS wave interferes everything for 384 hrs. Jesus

...it's funny how we all got our thing - i have an uncanny memory for patterns and indices ... but dates ? - luke warm if not cool on those -

word! I just got the 'little critter' in Feb on the wrong year but the other stuff was right - For some reason I always wanna put that damn thing in 04' ...not sure why - ..heh, it's not the first time he's had to correct me on that sucker. Oh I imagine 20 years from now it'll be 'No, that was Feb 03, the previous year'

I think Will may be right - I think we need to bump our recollect one year earlier - haha... my bad. OH, wait never mind - f me!

That winter went on to be a syrupy cold winter ..wow. It was a west based -NAO pulser - one of the last great NAO winters where NAO actually did mean storms and cold because it modulated the right way... Fickle index. But I remember -9 F on numerous mornings. That was the year ( early Feb ) that a "little Critter that bites" swathed 10" of "flurries" along the eastern end of the Pike, with 6" on either side out to 30 or so miles...out of nowhere sending NWS scrambling to now-cast a warning event -

Yup...I was living in Winchester then, which as you know is just 4 or 5 miles down Washington street from Woburn there... about 24" in our driveway... I don't think there was snow on the ground at xmass - but don't quote me...

Big wind just arrived here in interior NW Middlesex Co out along Rt 2... Est that was 45 mph gust in the canopy level and the house creaked when it white roared passed...

You know what this reminds me of ? In 2003, early Dec we had a southerly gale that pushed nearly 70 Dps clear to Manchester NH...replete with sheeting rains going sideways under street lamps... and even stopped raining long enough to just be very windy and spooky warm...then, a ribbon echo squall ends around midnight... two days later, we had a windex snow event that made headlines for how 1.5" of snow burst in temps that crashed from 36F to 19F over and that many hours, ... flashed I-95 and gridded eastern Mass ... 3 days later, ...well - 20" over Metrowest... Not saying this transition is reduxing that - no...but, but it reminds me if we get these 60+ DPs and this evening thrashing ... then, say the deal on the weekend is a cold advection pivot point, then a few clicks later that coastal manages to set up - does at least spatially remind me of that . spatially - I mean...we aren't going to be 9 F prior to any coastal in 8 days hahaha... that'd be a neat trick

something like that affect... metaphorically speaking of course but yeah. We're either going full in our f'n around with how to weasel out lol

Not holding a candle ...yet, to PVD but ORH is now gusting to 35 mph and they popped 55 F... this warm frontal intrusion is a fire-hose aloft man

We're wobbling tree limbs now and the temp has surged from 43 an hour.5 ago to 57! .... So, some form of either CF or warm frontal intrusion has punched this far N/NW into the region of SNE. Still getting jungle-drop steady R though...

ha, the flip side of that coin says, ' Last year was so good in model performance, they were never fooled by the bad pattern'

One could almost argue there was in the spring though ...mid to late March in 2014 ... which, yeah, for the purposes of present context doesn't help the winter of 2013-2014, huh ? lol just sayn'

I didn't like the look Euro run ' as is ' but ... may still be molding the clay on that Dec 6 thru 10 period of time ... If I had to anthropomorphize the Euro model,... you got a panel member that's sort of holding back while sending in a placeholder ...biding time while it continues to analyze how/why to either go full in, or pull full out - it sees the possibility but isn't convinced ... I don't like the D5 to D6 transition there ...that appears like the model's doing the over curved deepening it biases at that temporal boundary ... I mean a little - there are worse examples of it doing that than this run... but it does seem to get a total structure there from less input on the previous day(5)

Yup ... and, like we said last night ... probably have to go on and off with these peregrinations for a couple days, too - I mean don't be shocked if say ...12z tomorrow we're back to that separate weirdness again... The 00z, 06z. and 12z operational GFS runs all have definitively different ideas on how to handle the flow coming off the NE Pac over the PNA evolving arced flow up over the NW Terr. of Canada and really...everything that happens on the 7/8th of Dec is going to come down to that being handled right and uh...heh, we aren't really there yet. Some of that mechanics is plausibly even based upon enhancements as the sourcing is deep oceanic basin regional... That's another thing about this PNA ..the flow is rather flat for numbers as large as CPC ( GEFs -based)... It may be adding to model discontinuity -

lol, I was noticing that as far as the GFS operational run goes... the deeper layer/mid level vortex position over Lake Huron has been pegged there clicking back some 15 ( not kidding ) cycles... ( Trop. TB) literally... It's like, clone-clone-clone-clone-clone.... all the way back, offering zero hope. The GFS is probably not as bad as we think as a model huh

Didn't ask me but ... heh, probably combines two primary motivational factors - ( Conditionalized expectations + recent events ) / 2 = impatience and losing site of normalcy ... The left side of that addition is formulated or encouraged over the recent years since ...really 2000, where 50% + autumns have featured air mass supportive, or outright pulling off...early snow events. You know? It's like entitled now... It reminds me of Wright Weather and early Eastern BB... and the mid Atlantic entitlement after Jan 1996. Five years later ... when internet social media emerged, they popped on the scene clearly ( and "justly") jilted because they weren't getting the snows that NYC was - I can believe we are closing in on 15 years since that era - wow... man. Heh I guess it's a bit of abstract reference at this point - But it doesn't help that recently we 4-6" ed another Halloween ... it seems ever since then there's been this palpable undisclosed 'okay, let's do this' and every time the pattern doesn't... you get grousing to make up for the missing wind gusts... I guess that call that "guffing" lol...

word, 27 here ... yeah, either warm front or perhaps even a CF mixed into that mess appears to be tipping N to about 93 N or so...

I mentioned this a while ago ... in jest/half joking but it's true. You go look at NWS Obs or ...metrowest this and that, and they are routinely apple-cheeked 10 year old clone of dad out flying kites in gee-golly bambi breezes - why in the hell cant these obs just tell the truth.... ducking wind roars are scary" - call it DWRAS ALL DIRECTIONs

really not much different than you here N Middle-lack-of-sex County ( Ayer ...)... 41, near calm wind, R/R-

NICE ... yeah...I'm not thinking tor's for us NE of NYC ... but, with the warm sector naked to the sky a ribbon echo sort of tucked or hidden on rad later in the evening may rip some dramatic mixing ... then the wind goes calm after and we dry slot... But who knows - these things often "look" or appeal a certain way and then doesn't - I don't admittedly have my finger on the pulse of advection driven tornadoes in late November climatology - hahaha

wow...wow... I love that - ...lucky. Those kind of defined synoptic boundaries laying the law are fascinating. Still 41 at mi casa with no wind and deliciously soothing rain on the back of necks - .... yuck

Warm front may be nearing the Pike ... or is very thin inversion remain between the Pike and N rim of CT but... you're also at what ? ...750' ...that may just be enough to STICK your toes up into it -

Need to get the warm front thru - that's step 1 pending that arrival ...then we move on to step 2 ... I'm wondering if this has the low lcl check-list going on ...and if the wind may also back a bit in vallies - should the warm front intrude say to Rt 2 up along N mass... and that wind funneling in low areas combined with LCL's being saturated/low bring lift cores closer down..blah blah ...

Fairly impressive warm boundary suggestion by local obs... Willimantic CT bounced to 58 over the last hour ... breezy SSE at 22 mph according to Metrowest but probably the trees lean more than that ( you know? how obs never seem to really match it when electrical spatter falls from powerline junctions and timbre cracks echo from the woods heh ) ... Meanwhile, ORH at 1,000 K is still parked at 42 with very little NNE wind. Those locations are really nearby in wind coordinates so the frontal slope must be pretty steep -... an homage to that WCB attempting to hydro-mine through that denser air's elevated cliff-face lol. Kevin reporting gusts now audible ... too - I think it aligns roughly Torrington CT to NW of PVD to interior SE Mass ... I can't wait to see this thing penetrate through ...I wonder if makes it rt Poop up here though... Sometimes they do and all at once I turbine and a stepping outside reveals surreal heat out of nowhere -