Typhoon Tip

If that happens there’s a band doing 2/3”/hr easily

May be too amped but the GFS is mid lvl magical juggernaut ... but the QPF is substantial in long trajectory format anyway and looks like 8-12” most areas save for the s coast without meso / way early to get into that. that 500 mb vector containing that huge pulsed wind max riding over that cold would likely jam inflow jets straight into a very steep elevated frontal slope. I bet GFS 850-700 mb frontigen has a bright band

Slipped back to 26.5 here in Ayer rad looks like the whole bag is trying to miss NW at this point. Wow its like it’s not enough the models did bad its trying to find ways to make them badder lol

Lol - you took my flip vision and doubled it down I dunno ‘bout blizzards to bliss in a week ... but I’d say if March ins like a lion ... and flipped mid month that’s pretty damn abrupt

Is this an 18z distinction for the next 2 week? I just have this weird vision that we get slammed by Gatling gun PAC waves for 17 days then it goes summer in mid March in a grand flip. Like the seasonal change back in 2010 in April - it was like 48 with low DP pellets next day 65 next day upper 80s

Yeah I’m not really sold on the idea we get out of this month without several concerns ... maybe into the first week of March. also - op runs are fighting ensemble means. Wondering what the PNA and AO look like over at the EPS

How long does one believe winter will last on Feb 15 ? Yeah, winter is "almost over" - deal with it... That said, it's compounded by the complete break down of the erstwhile -AO, toward the positive mode, while the PNA is collapsing negative. These operational runs do little to offset the veracious and rational acceptance of those weightier signals/indices ... Additionally, no one said this was right away either... This was slated for March. It was March possibly flipping the script to an above normal/ spring-like month. It's not like people are trying sell a dog shit taco to Julia Child in this..

This thing has much more powerful mid level mechanics involved than tomorrow's thing .. .yet, the surface evolution is paltry relative to that - interesting..

what does that mean ?

I know ... It's annoying... I put in bold not to do that - please... what happens - I don't know if it's not really reading, or just disrespect - not sure...But, I guess you get what you get with a free-for-all and the general public lol

I just I dunno ...I guess it's too much to ask of this concentration of internet folk to not be human when it comes to being recently mislead by model "lies" re- the present system, to then come in here and be sloped objective ? ...prooobably not happening. ha

How in the hell does that logically follow ? ... You're previous observations do not appear to connote that -

Damage gets done on the GGEM's 12z ... coldest/snowiest run yet ...and keeps with the trend theme. In fact, I almost don't want - as a snow enthusiast - to slip any more than it has. That's a low climate cyclone with a PWAT advantage, all snow NW of Willamantic CT - Logan ( ~) look there where relative to weak profile .. over-achieves by some. It may taint IP to Worcester, but along and above that line to about S VT - MHT NH looks like 11" max with 7 " downward option - that's my interpretation of the GGEM I'm sure this has been noted, but that V16 made a definitive commitment /jump to the coast ... again - weak/moderate LP, descent QPF mechanics in snow column N of the Pike... It should be noted, much of this is contingent upon two factors - from what I'm seeing anywho.. . One, nascent polar/arctic hybrid high pressure nearly quintessentially located at storm entry ...only slowly recedes E but after tuck jets and CAD effects extend the snow sounding to the 700 mb level - which is sufficient to preclude a warm wedge at that level ...a.k.a. the faulty NAM ( I suspect... ) .. The other factor is a subtle tendency to back off the mid level trough kinematics in the BUF region leading...putting more emphasis in the wind max(s) riding up midriff Appalachia .. That helps trunk off the elevated warm intrusion if that trend continues to evolve - and if so...we may yet see more Miller B commitment and even some intensity given back - that's plausible but not depicted.

Fwi(not)w, the ICON's gone/going S .. This is not a majorly powerful low/deep barometric pressure event ... It benefits from having a substantive PWAT tap from the deep S - evidenced as the b-c zone is observable in the guidance depressed into the mid Bama-Georgia region mid week, prior retreating N quickly to join into the fray as this whole ordeal is unfolding... That's indicative of a descent moisture source, and..then the nascent/potent llv cold air still trending belated ( even ) in these recent runs, means that is setting up a rather hefty front load potential ... I think Will mentioned that earlier - but then, if this curls back into a moderate exit cyclogenesis, that's where the "both" comes in... That's as is - could evolve more Miller B proper ( and it's > 50 % in the Euro already ) and still get a good dose of water input - It's bumdom territory when you get pedestrian mechanics with high PWAT because the return ends up more robust - lol

Do not allow the perceived deterministic/modeling failures re this is or is not ice storm scenario presently in coverage influence - this thing at the end of the week? Totally and entirely a different ball game in the lower 300 mb of thermal sounding medium and timed atmospheric metrics -

Do not allow the perceived deterministic/modeling failures re this is or is not ice storm scenario presently in coverage influence - this thing at the end of the week? Totally and entirely a different ball game in the lower 300 mb of thermal sounding medium and timed atmospheric metrics -

Will - I'm only using your post as a launcher ... Having seen the 00z to 06z GFS subtle albeit crucial trend to commit more to the coast (..ultimately 06z with a mid 980s low E of PWM!! ) I'm thinking this begins to coalesce in future guidance more E. May even offer a seasonal gap closer on any perceived snow deficits and/or 'jilting' - lol on the latter. But by that I mean it'll be N of 8" Do not allow the perceived deterministic/modeling failures re this is or is not ice storm scenario presently in coverage influence - this thing at the end of the week? Totally and entirely a different ball game in the lower 300 mb of thermal sounding medium and timed atmospheric metrics - 'Not even in the same f'n ballpark,' as Sam Jackson once said. - now.. the 0z/6z operational GFS grudgingly conceding ending on the 6 z look over the lower Gulf Of Maine ( to me ..) these are all creating a melody to this song that evoke feeling for more commitment to to the Miller B - more likely 80th percentile of what the 00z operation Euro looks like/blended with it's EPS mean's more sensible contained members. ..I guess I just mean that at this range, 80 percent of what the Euro looks like is acceptable - it doesn't mean its final. This is setting incrementally toward a classic open -wave Miller-B. Whether that gets more purely so, backs off ... or is partial in either direction remains to be seen, but my feeling is to take the 00z Euro and add maybe 10% more proficient coastal commitment. That is based upon it's trends unfinished ( apparently ..). Being a fan of cross guidance support, over the last three consecutive GEF blend cycles, there has been a steady increase in individual members showing more commitment over the arc around Cape Cod .. It's insidious, because that subtlety is happening while the spread is still up near Buffalo, which casts almost an allusion as though A.I. of that model were trying to 'sneak' it in ... hahaha. Yesterday I thought this looked more WAA/isentropic ...now it appears quasi between those and a cyclogenic structure with Miller B ...I don't know if this finished at 4.5 days ... We are in a fast flow and still has deterministic headaches ...

The March ‘93 event didn’t headline this much i think there’s been an officiate cultural shift to be more liberal with this stuff

I outlined what's going on - strongly supported by multi guidance depictions at this point a few post/ page ago... This system had some idiosyncratic noise down the stretch that skunked the early solutions regarding the amount and exertion of high "promised" to stem down along traditional climate routes into New England ... a.k.a., it's no longer there - It's having to rely now upon rotted polar air as oppose to having that direct insert - as a separate dialogue ... Mets outside this social media'sphere and myself have noted over the last 20 ...particularly 10 years, that we don't do so well at flipping marginal scenarios that crucial degree negative to get to the blue snow or the coveted ( Kevin ..) ice... We are in fact flipping marginal situations more routinely a degree up - This appears like it is trying to destine that for a lot of the area.. working with marginal air mass ..so. Not sure about up your way in NNE - frankly ...It's too big of a sub forum multi-lateral focus ugh..

I've seen it be 59 in napey spring "fake warmth" spring sun at noon in early April, and mixing with snow at 6 pm that same afternoon.

One aspect I'm seeing in the warmer boundary layered runs .. .heh, which is pretty much all of them at this point - or seems destined that way - is that a bit of a 'COL' has opened up all over New England. The polar high that was so ideally draped west-east through Ontario, and wedging down... really is not 'quite' doing so the same as it appeared to be handled... before this shit the ice/cold rain bed. I was in doubts of a warm BL intrusion .. but upon seeing that 'COL' ( area inside the red ovoid annotation abv - ) I am less head-scratching, and more completely absolved of it. Seriously, if the models are going to 'hold back' the cold sourcing within a mere 36 f'um hours of the onset as a convenience to La Nina ... tough luck. Lol..seriously though that has a bit of a blind-sided short term correction attack on clad intents and purposes about it. Yeah, I guess you can look at the 500 mb "maybe" have inferred that "inverse cold blocking" could happen by the mid level jet... but, we've seen that fire hose over the top in the past, and still ...arctic synoptic air rounds the Maine bend and tucks its way down - maybe an interesting now cast op. But, that lobe of deep cold and the attending surface high up there is really being held way back at this point. I think there will be ageo flow - has to be.. Even the most NW postions take the low SE of Worcester ...so there has to be drain in the interior...question is, is there enough cold in the COL area to keep things freezing... I think that's the supplying air mass to this things BL circus act for SNE and probably S NH /SE VT...

It's compounding a little, too - it's both that ... and, the positioning of the surface high pressure is bumped back W a bit.

I can think of 50 storms that were/are ... - although, yeah yeah they didn't happen to fall on this fateful day. I think that "yore" is really more of a highlight as to the cultural/adaptive relevancy of era for "big" events. It's why I kinda sorta wonder how bad it really was for the Colonials when/ if one could ever imagine transporting our modern tech and standards for recovery ... back in time? Like, 'magine if General Custard had a couple of Gatling Guns pointed up those hills ? 1940 wasn't exactly burlap clothed clothing, .. or wading through it to take a shit at 2:13 am in a "blizzard" ... out of a drafty log cabin hosting earwigs and silverfish ... no. But, that era did not benefit from posi-traction slip differential SUV's that could rover Mars ... either. Nor were households impervious to the elements with central masturbatory heating ... while refrigerators were full of 7 layer dips waiting for the convenience of the microwaves for dipping during any in the constelation of overly stimulating Internet and television distractions that give us the illusion of dystopia - Like, 'magine taking anyone from today back to a 6-10" snow storm of 1740 ... sans these conveniences ? Oh my god!!! 8-15 inches was traffic arresting for days .. shit, that much doesn't even stop me from ordering a pizza now -

General theme among guidance is clearly an active week to 10 days ( perhaps a bit longer ..) of Pacific jet. Appears slated to relay a steady diet of Sat-sonde'ed/assimilation-modified impulses in a low curvature- high amplitude, very dynamic flow. The next in line offers up another shot at impacting the region preferably Friday.. but, part of the 'dynamic' flow means changeability - which should be held in vigil ...probably until Tuesday ( There is also another time frame of interest out there around 23-25th. These Pacific disturbances are arriving around a periodicity that spatially supports that time span as the next ...and so seeing events modeled ..etc.etc ) Keeping on point, the recent discrete handling of Friday's event have trended east slightly - for cold profile enthusiasts... you like that The event its self in these recent GFS/GGEM solution ( for example...) appears to be more WAA /..isentropic lift in structure. The flow at 500 mb begins to really accelerate from the TV to New England regions .. igniting an overrunning "quasi" SWFE response. However, this cinema appears actually displaced E from the actual trough working E on its heels. The GGEM at this D4.5 -- 5.5 lead tries to keep this all snow N of the Pike... as the trajectory of the WAA appears to tip E and slows the elevated warm boundary from intruding N of that region - it's an interesting snow-lovers salvation solution, and rather than salivating over it... lol, obviously that is negotiable noise at this lead. The GGEM hints at the lagged trough as halfheartedly materializing an inverted trough structure the pressure pattern ... with ongoing or regenerated light snow.. It's an interesting look - even if conjured in the imagination of the day-dreamer model. Spent way too much time just now on this particular guidance The GFS has ... point to point, trended the entire structure E now three cycles worth - that I am aware - I didn't count/check back further. One aspect that is important for SWFE mechanics ...and overall for snow/ cold profile enthusiast, is that the lead surface ridging over Ontario in both the GGEM and GFS ...is belated(ing) in these recent trends .. built back more W into a potent CAD supportive look. If/when the trajectory aloft of the incurring WAA slopes less ( more ENE as oppose to normal to the iso-heights )...that overall implicates a colder solution by a goodly assumed amount over yesterday's ideas. This 12z's run still ultimately transitions... but I'm more interested in the trend for now, because that situation at the end of the week has a lot of smaller scaled/ higher impact sensitivity to it.. .and that high retarded a little more - say - on the next cycle, and that event gets interesting for more snow/ice than it already depicts. .. The 00z Euro was also a smidge E-S with the entire lower trop. pressure pattern and the accoutrements of various concerns. It really has a 18 hour mix storm for every N of about mid CT-NW RI ... Again, trend .. also, interesting is that despite the lag trough, it still has a better commitment to Miller B utilizing the wind mechanics in that acceleration field - apparently. I think we are inside of D5 for the formulation of this thing. This model run right now...I wonder if it commits more there... or what's going on. But the Euro is really only another cycle or two for ratcheting this thing into its wheelhouse -