Typhoon Tip

I dunno but was there a watch issued?

Macroburst that’s what that was

Yes sir Thing is, contrasting the GFS has a polar side low height anomaly it maintains.. which it atones for ( I think ..) by speeding up the flow everywhere more so than reality - which buries it's error in a way because it's already fast/gradient rich. That then causes it to be too W-E biased... It makes it difficult to parse our because the flow has been +AO like with steeper heights N and speedy flow overall as a persistency over recent years, and that's sort of masking the amount of bias the GFS is maintaining ... interesting -

Yeah ... but I have noticed my self a growing "gap" tendency in the dailies between the thickness and hypsometry of the atmosphere. Primer: take the Hypsometric Equation, integrate it for PV=NRT ... = thickness... The only thing that really changes is the WV ... Hypsometric height is the room the heights expand when the moisture is removed. ... This is counter-intuitive to some degree ( pun intended...) because folks have heard that WV is an efficient greenhouse gas - but what is happening is, the column of wet warm air cools off slower than the column of dry air at the same height - ...such that the wet column nets/accumulates heat when exposed to less insolation ( sun ). Anyway, I have noticed that particularly over North America above ... 37 or so N latitude (~) ... The heights are there, but the atmosphere is dodging heating up ...maybe cloud albedo ...smoke... industrial farts, who knows. But, the hypsometric heights are getting taller, but the lower troposphere isn't getting thermally charged and the increased moisture input is holding the thickness down - insidiously, too... because we have been 'above normal' ... What this does is, hides how warm 'it could have been' ...by shirking the extent of it. fascinating really -

Not sure how well known this is ... but, "Prince" was just a fantastic guitar player - if not virtuoso actually. He did a solo in the song, "While My Guitar Gently Weeps" during .... 2004's Rock 'N' Roll Hall Of Fame' induction ceremony show that was mesmerizing. Fact of the matter is, there's probably a ceiling where a lot of these talents of the craft reach ...where beyond it really isn't very relevant because that realm is perhaps beyond the detection/perception of the common human ear and experience. We are not worthy to sit with that particular panel of judges. Hendrix was done right lewd ... .and, it's risky to cross-up genres anyway, because the comparisons cannot really be resolved - it's like asking what's a prettier color: red or blue. But Chuck Berry? ...he ripped solos so hot the Devil ducked out the backdoor... he was ludicrous as a Rocka-Billy tactiction.. And there's a whole pantheon of Blues gifts from god that walked amongst us disguised as mere mortals ...who when they played, heaven wept. I dunno... there's no EVH is better than "X" or "Z" at a certain point ....it's just honoring something extraordinary for having blessed our company ...all too brief was their stay, and made the world that much more bearable for their harmony.

Wait ... there were three years bbb in the early 1950s? ...the suicide stretch my god But on point that makes me wonder about the ambient PWAT/WV accessibility in the GW models - interesting. But I don’t know if it accounts for all that because that seems like a disproportionately large response by that one metric when GE its self is decimaling its way up ... could be luck playing in... also - note the 1980’s ambrosia of couplets

Well ... I dunno it seems to me pulling back to back subpar snow seasons at 1000’ is in of its self perhaps harder to do than the SE coastal plain. In terms of implication - I can see 1998-‘99 as that was that super ENSO back whence they mattered -lol

Yeah the transport/PWAT aspect up to the lover OV/ to upper MA/NE regions was hinted several days ago but has been flip-flopping a bit with some runs trying to flatten the flow ...but I think the westerly position has merit... May not correct deficits but will dent if so -

Still see a decent chance of a PWAT plume entering the westerlies near enough our circuitry to clip New England if not more directly from Delta ... At the time I thought Gamma but ..it doesn't really matter as both entities were in hot prospect of being captured by the larger synoptic grab and smear pattern... The question is, what form does that take. Some guidance even hold onto vestigial ...though conversion physics, others are wane it out but then develop a separate baroclinic wavy on the wave boundary that feeds off the latent heat plume...and gets us that way... Then of course the GFS tries to shunt it all S under a high pressure it is too aggressive and full of shit to begin with because it has too much mid and upper air tropospheric wind speeds everywhere, all the time, as an irritating model bias that causes confluences to get out of control mass and produces too much surface high pressures...

Delta appears destined to 5 status ... Looking at the typical environmental factors, this system has 0 inhibition for strengthening - that only leaves internal fluctuations that are not predictable with any reliancy such IR sequencing and so forth. My experience with that is that the TCs destined for unimpeded realization ... typically spike to their apex along the gestation intensity in that first 18 to 24 hours through that initial RI (rapid intensity..). After which replacement and expanding wind fields and other mechanics start lowering winds due to spreading the atmospheric response to the internal/core pressure implosion. Right now... the core is simply coring out faster than the surrounding PGF can respond due to curvature physics impeding mass transport ... so it's probably going to be 920 mb here by overnight... at 160 mph ( I'm guessing) at about the time FOX News contingency's blaming it on gay marriage - Heh...anyway, it may not be that strong but it's 130 mph rather abruptly and again, it just appears to be in the midst of an RI curve that has zippo inhibitors for the next 24 hours. I dunno- but that I don't see what's going to stop this thing from really ceiling intensity. Also, I am noticing the the modest shearing that the models were imposing on the circulation out there around ( now) 96 hours,... is all but gone or reducing. In fact, many global models are significantly expanding the pressure field/dimension of the circumvallate of the cyclone as it is in the midriff Gulf open seas... approaching 120 hours.. That's bit alarming for obvious reasons.. and who knows what kind of particulars with structure it will harbor. Lyme bite ringed eye-walls tunneling along 135 mph wind drills, each separated by intervening zephyrs of only 78 mph to offer exhalation as the coast is clear if one is lucky enough to be there instead -

well than bravo -

The stronger/ing HC might also sustain stronger easterly trade wind - supposition. That could "mimic" - for lack of better word - the La Nina state, however... So, we end up with stronger easterly trade... causing cooling... but that is still inside the HC ...and then the hemisphere above latitudes doesn't behavior very La Nina and again... heads getting scratched in early February when there's an El Nino California wind bomb going off lol ... just sayn'

That's a terrible look.... All the balancing is already stored in that usually deep vortex with huge saturated rampart of heights and violent wind so that's not doing anything - you want softer 'hypsometric' gradient, with steeper 'thickness gradient' underneath... It's complex -

Mmm I'm not sure to which conversation you refer to when/where I "refuted" - but fwiw, I have been very clear in hard text .. if not implicitly, that 'these are not absolute' ; it's about offsetting mitigators. ENSO is not 0 influencing ... duh.. The idea is as it should be, that it is not AS influencing when smothered inside an expanded HC - ...I even said, the 'art is how much so' at one point or the other. I just don't like the ready-reliance on ENSO as it doesn't fit with my personal perspective from education, a-priori as well as purely observational reasons. Off the record, in my own little fantasy world I'm actually put off by the ENSO failures as of the last decade to the point where I'm hostile and want to throw my hands and say it's all BS but out of respect for my fellow minds and that my indignation isn't so righteous ... I figure I could be wrong in absolution- haha Caveat emptor I suppose. But, warm(cool) ENSOs have not manifested the impacts they typically due around the Globe's known climate routes, ...over the last 10 to 15 years, as notably as they did prior to the coincident onset of the HC expansion - which to reiterate, is not me alone averring that circumstantial emergence. I have cited links and climate reports and papers oh my! I understand that these are large - in geological time concerns ... -- nearly instantaneous changes, but that unfortunately requires a proportional ability to be mutable and adapt if one is in the business of using "environmental signaling" to prognosticate. But I also admit there is a bit of smoldering commentary along the way that the Earth is in deep f'n trouble ... but it is what it is.

Here's an easy prediction: Trump’s out of this thing in 4.38 days from right now… a time in which he experiences nothing further of consequence … --> Rage against the Liberal conspiracy-Pandemia

Yeah... "I've" now got that required of me - lol

I don't really have a problem with this in the DJF ... particularly the latter two months of that range. I think as the 'base-line' eddy gets established in the winter hemisphere, it will probably be at more times than not ...seemingly unrelentingly in compressed look that emerges by virtue of the polar winter heights reaching a nadir between Jan 15 and Feb 10 or so... In that time range, we may have seasonal heights over the area, but because the compression is there, the winds are hauling seriously ablading cold incursions and or limiting their impact on regions to briefer times ... There is a way out of this though... 2015 February - Firstly, those seasonal products by the Euro are not that good - just keeping that in mind. Secondly, should the N-stream just become so overwhelming, we could end up in one of the -20 C 850 at all time air masses...with powdering coastals faking huge seasonal snow totals.. If there is anywhere in N/A where that would likely to occur, it is in the eastern Lakes-OV-NE band, where the PNAP favors a persistently anchored trough. It does pull me to wonder at times if we can't sustain winter without that extreme - perhaps as an insidious "already" climate threshold cross that we're less collectively aware... The HC is being documented and observed, in the private sector and in scholar and scientific formal arenas alike - and given the root causality...climate change ... theoretically that does not lend one to think it is going anywhere, either. So that scaffolds the vision of the futre around that flow being consummately impeded from the S by heights that are not receding - and we're only talking about about 6 dm ... But that's all we need in the integral from 30 N to 70 N to trigger the velocity surplus...which by wave mechanics than starts jostling the R-wave orientations, as well, creates interesting indivudal temporal-spatial scaled event morphologies. Like 938 mb extratropical lows moving passed a region that thinks a Pratt&Whittney proving ground was exhausting through their region with a 6 hour 100 mph sideways show .... ( hyperbole but it was SOMEthing ludicrous!) ... weird shit. Anyway, non-sustaining cold before warm reloads to 45 N isn't a bad base-line in a ballooning HC... That all said, prior to the onset of that circumstance...these book end months ... mid Octo to Dec 1 and ...then again through April 15 ...perhaps May 1, etc... those times the compression eases and continent passes back through a tendency period for -EPOs .... It's sort of causing a recurrent 'split' in winter - It's not all the time and or absolute, either... Just "tendency" - so... Even though that seasonal product probably verifies well by dumb luck ...I could kind of see/tell/almost predict where that luck comes from.

Same here... it happened right under my nose, too - It was April ...I wanna say 2016, and as typical at that time of year, the region was going through its right of passage climo window for spring detritus fire threat. Three weeks past mud-season .. two weeks before the thrust of green-up. The day was mid 70s over about /10 or some richly deep theta-e content desert like that ... And there I am using one of those backyard ornamental fire pans you get at a parking lot display at a Home Depot to feed the flames with pieces of felt dead timber. The funny part is that I used some lighter fluid to get it going too... I turn around - uh... oh shit moment! I mean, it's a sinuously winding arc of orange, propagating away at a noticeable speed. I have no idea how that started behind my heels like that... Burnout's no option ...nor, what am I going to tamp it out with dried out dead pine bows? - and seeing as I was tOtally responsible in prepping the setting for fire safety before I started... Then there's that small problem of the neighbor's dilapidated, seasonally dried out stock fencing with holes in it... making visible their yellow-beige straw lawn and dead leaf mixture on the other side... So I'm in the house eviscerating the contents of the closet that caps the crawl space, ... banging and chucking vacuum clean parts and cleaners and half-emptied brick dried paint cans... Estimating? I'd 180/110 BP at a 110 pulse rate ... this, trying to access the outside water valve, to turn on the source for the hose, ...that's still coiled up buried in the back of the shed outside while I am doing that, ...with all of last year's tools and lawn implement burriering between the opening of the shed and said hose.. I don't know how in the face of all those obstacles... But, I probably more literally than merely figuratively managed to just get the hose connected and the water on, spraying the - by then - arc of fire that had consumed almost 2/3rds of my dead backyard lawn and contents ...all the way down to black char, terminating it in a steam flash a mere inches from the fencing... I think when the adrenaline wore off I slept for 3 hours on the couch. If I had called the fire department it's like 1500 base-line charge/fine in this town, prior to any accoutrements they get to tack circumstantially on the bill too - I did this in my 40s age ... a Meteorologist ... in mid April ... in 77 F early season warmth, two weeks before green up, in a global warming spring - It's humility like these that ease the coming of acceptance of me, on display in the museum, a shimmering gallery mediocrity in life - and thankful for this much recognition. Christ. What's interesting is that... where ever the fire swept across the lawn ..grew the most delicious emerald green salad of grass I'd ever seen - heh...I was thinking - you know? if one could just figure this out... a spring controlled burn is the best way to set your lawn up for prize entry - ...nah, better not.

Best time of the year and antecedent circumstances huh

18z ... GFS finally admits Gamma exists - indeed the PWAT transport’s in there. also ... nice Sultan look in the deep field

There’s a chance Gamma sends a pwat plume up the EC or thereabouts -stay tuned on that.

the operational model types keep trying to suppress the Pac jet like El Nino into the west coast... It's bullshit and they're routinely having to pull it back N but that's interesting -

Know what'd be funny ... we get like no autumnal coastal/attributed rains... then, cold brick the earth and cap frozen and dry and throw down 6' of snow on top in the biggest winter ever - this to make sure everyone is absolutely wrong -

Yeah ... separating the -AO from the +AO ... as being rooted in what cause is a whole 'nother popsicle headache - good luck! But I also like where you are going there, because a -AO base-line tussling with HC would quite reasonably cause a different "synergistic" hemisphere ...having those opposing aspects in tandem. I don't know how to visualize that resolution. The +AO is easy ... It's a contraction N of the westerlies/Polar Jet as we know... and that's sort of like giving the HC "carte blanche" - you know? So we wash in bathing progressivity and sheared out busted R-waves that can't situate ...and you know the drill... Anyone want to argue that's NOT what we've eaten the last half-ten ? If so, never log in again - But jokes aside, the HC isn't going anywhere - most likely... Most papers, sciences and scholars are leaning heavily toward it's anchoring in GW ... so - But... the +AO affliction is making the GW seem like whole numbers instead of decimals - which it still is. When they flash headlines designed to jolt awareness ( ahem...) that X month was the warmest ever ...they mean it was .01 warmer than the last 'oh-my-god-we're-all-gonna-die' month ... I mean it's not good that we are adding decimals ...no.. But, it's like Venus comes tomorrow. ...or even in 50 years... although ... things could be sensibly different by then if the "acceleration" shit continues ... Logarithmic change is a little harry out to 5 decades... Anyway, I'm not really sure about the +AO longevity ...it doens't fit the solar min curve...Last year was not right ... and it's persistence was also ... doubling down on that 'not righteousness' ha-ha. Seriously... I don't blame the QBO when the QBO was weak and there are plenty of -AO at similar QBO in the past... so, ... the MJO's were also biased on 3-6 phases, which is consistent with the +AO correlation - it worries me that the whole hemisphere was butt-fing winter ...from the Eq to the Pol and this is unrelenting... I am not sure that HC ... I don't see how - but it does seem to be a constructive interference that is making the HC very demonstrative ... making huge mid lat wind budgets -

Yeah I think this is the intellectual/ course of least regret in using the PDO metric frankly ... and by the way, check this but I think the multi-decadal curve is arguing -PDO/-AMO through 2030 .. So if it is positive - I have two thoughts on that... The first is, it may be a lie... Why? Because we are also now toting along this multi-decade warm basin signal. I think if you look at the last 200 some- months worth of anomalies products at NASA... 78% of the Basin has been in a positive anomaly 78% of the months or something ... ( making that up but it's been warm biased). *AND* that is now overlapping the -PDO according to the multi-decadal oscillatory curve that was constructed based upon reanalysis from 200 years ago .. that become more empirical mid century onwards.. Blah blah.. .point is - and I'm sorry if this chaps asses and/or rolls eyes but the fact of the matter is - global warming is f'ing this whole conversation up before we even have it.. Jesus Christ. But, suppose for a moment GW doesn't matter ( yeah right - ) ... the PDO/AMO move together, and both move with a very high correlation to the solar cycle. So it is an interesting diametric signal there... we have a multi-decade in situ warm anomaly - regardless of GW or not ...it's there - "fighting" the -PDO ...which by the way, should be a whopper given to the superposition theory and the deep solar min ... I keep coming back the same thing .. the primary force in the scaling of equations is the HC expansion and the polar field/Ferrel Cell interface velocity in the gradient saturation as overwhelming things. That's putting the previous modes that were better correlations more on the back burner - note, that is not saying they don't influence. Seems there is a tendency to read shit and think it's absolute stink and that's not the point here - but, we live on a dynamical world - and dynamics actually translates directly to "change" as per definition... Sometimes the turds of change just have to be seen or we risk drinking the cool-aide