Typhoon Tip

The Euro's over done in the D6.5 to 10 range ...but the gist of it is probably okay in principle. See that era as a -EPO loading..and tends to drop cold west first, with anomalously short R-wave undulation NE Pac into the settling kettle arc in the W/SW...Intermountain region. Spational not bad but the Euro tends too much curvature in that range so thinking along those lines but less dramatic is advisable. This is a good look for center - east mid latitude conus per the extrapolation .. eventually, as this look typically kicks off a -EPO mode passage, and then ...as the cold spreads the R-wave lengthens and then we time a mid Novie hostile baroclinic axis with wave potential out there - Nevertheless ...there will like be some fairly mild days in Nov 4 to 9 range ... But as I mentioned in the other thread, that's not guaranteed if surface high pressure tends to move E of Ontario and not settling SE of CC

Yeah ... uh, "Spanks45" ? ...interesting name ..anyway, with all the action in the foreground, that looks like the season's first big LE event ... It's short lived... no longer that 24 due to a redic fast pattern turning over real fast, but down wind of there, the western slopes of the Green and even White mountains may get upslope sintered in this GFS/Euro blend out there D5

well there it is ... 2pm update delivered at 3 pm but ... 105 mph/ 973 mb given that it's outer e-wall is still ~ 1.5 hours from sawing inland ...it may yet knick the prized 115 ... The rate of organizational improvement seems to suggest it probably starts peeling back beach front siding and punching through hotel windows right as that 115's happening - Hahaha... can you 'magine if that was the tone that these NHC advisories were really written in - ...that'd be awesome. "WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ... HOUSEHOLD PETS KITING THROUGH THE AIR, BUT RECENT RECON REPORTS A SUDDEN PRESSURE DROP ... AWAITING WIND RESPONSE CONFIRMATION NOTABLE AS RADAR DETECTED FIDO's"

Ha ... nah, that was 18z, two days ago... That sucker was heading for history -

Looks to me like Zeta is strengthening AS it is moving ashore later this afternoon/evening and that is traditionally ... not good when storms exhibit this behavior. They don't like having their hooch gets taken away and take it out on the land by 'scouring' in search of it - heh... seriously though, the eye is better defined nearing the coast. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a nearer update that has this to 105 or 110 even -

it's interesting that despite the stronger Zeta ... the NAM and Euro are actually maintaining a hybrid cyclone phase underneath LI, while lopping 'nough QPF over a cold wedge that ... probably is benefitting from a faster llv cut in by virtue of their having the superior grid/resolution - interesting.

EE rule returns in triumphant glory! lol -

God ...just once... all models bail... mood guided by wrenches and hammers and drill bits to the brink ... then have it snow anyway - please do that to people in purpose .. I beg

That's what I'm trying to intimate ... the first wave is really an 'increasingly more conserved' Zeta vestige ... but at this point, the GGEM looks like TD moving S of LI in the process of melding into the warm frontal arm... But I think what that conservation of Zeta is doing is sort of analogous to 'robbing' the wave spaces from their ability to phase better. This may simply have been a Zeta story all along and the models were underdone with that assessment and ( maybe had to correct by buttboning the other signal... ) lol... kidding a little there. There's still time. Those NAM FOUS numbers ...if that plays out, it's snows though - maybe they won't. Who knows

I've been going to Suny ALB's atmos dept: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/albany/FOUS61 ...I don't know if there's a direct NWS/NOAA link ...like here: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/mos_getbull but, the former one provides our trifecta/geographic region - ... There are many sectors though and these grids ( as you know ) are presenting for many regions around the country ... try poking around in the MOS one at NWS - it may be lurking in there, but ...I haven't bothered to probe. I don't really care about the FOUS for Albequir. NM ...ha

I think two aspects are observably in play - from my seat ... 1 .. Zeta is stronger ... A stronger entity perhaps 'resists' ( for lack of better word only on the fly here ..) absorption, because it really just comes down to it having too much momentum in its own tortionality and so forth.. blah blah popsicle headache. But, this resistance is helping keep it more cohesively separate - helping to maintain it's individual integrity in the flow 2 .. the flow ( unfortunately...) is being exposed as 'too fast,' and a stronger Zeta is caught in it by a day .. day and half from now. As we get in tighter to the complex and fragile timing of stream interactions... this part is the real math -headache. If Zeta were weaker it "could be" absorbed more readily by the model capacity to do so. Its diabatic infusion would have probably been useful to the total physical interplay/phasing, because it would have helped the z-coordinate deepening which slows/ parks against the flow that critical amount that allows better phasing to happen. Without out something to slow ... stream bypass becomes more likely ... It could still do all that, and the models could just be a little lacking their ability here - the Euro I think may be useful... ... not 'you' per se in saying this ...but what folks need to realize is that phasing has a kind of temporal window - it's really no different than harmonizing waves -- referred to as constructive interference. If the streams outpace each other, the interference is destructive ... and it sounds like finger nails on chalk-board, not Tchaikovski so...instead of synergistically structuring the outcome ..the opposite happens. Not to harp but ... fast flow is crippling this ... it's been crippling more over recent winters too - .. but, folks probably getting tired of me bloviating why so I won't haha

Fwiw - I've been a fan/user of the NAM FOUS ...since back whence it was once the 'ETA' product in the early to mid 1990s, and I can tell you that these grid numbers are snowing a pretty good clip ( most likely ...), certainly .. relative to climo of premie 'Ween events those adjectives are true. Particularly visualized west of the city of Boston out over that first set of hills ( Arlington Hgts ...) out toward I-95... western side of Waltham/Newton ..up toward Burlington, down a ways ...but not sure when SE contamination plays in ... But those areas or probably over to moderate parachutes in this profile BOS LGA 36031989751 08119 090417 54070100 36073989822 12609 020425 64070410 42068967727 11922 070329 52049999 42026955927 02616 040321 57060107 48021959143 05718 100224 42009798 48024979244 -9214 090220 45020099 54015614124 -0519 140115 36019595 54010795313 -2212 153611 40040097 60000412219 00618 203508 32039695 60000765509 00719 213405 37060096 Even down near NYC is flipping/ed to snow at 48 hours... certainly fatties mixed in. But, the 'fanship' kicks in for me < 36 hours ...so - given to 'subtle' bumps N and Chris' mentioning that the spread was oriented back this way, I'm 'subtly' impressed by these sigma values centered on D 2

yeah...the more I look at this... I think the models - all of them.. have introduced a conflict in the handling between Zeta and the synoptic mechanics approaching in the fast flow. They are conserving Zeta more so cohesively separate and squirting it out ... It may be contrasting to intuition but .. I almost wonder if Zeta got absorbed it's diabatic influx might exotically deepen this thing, and that would cause height falls --> favors shorter duration phase proficiency in the steam interaction "machinery" With Zeta being less integrated ... it's sort of stealing the latent heat injection into a system that is flat and needs to have its inflow jets to get that height fall/feed-back process going in time. Zeta may be robbing some of that - .almost akin to an MCS rolling underneath and robbing a region from tornadoes as a weak metaphor -

You know ...I am not sure if this matters but it seems like it should. This Zeta may even be a Cat 3 by landfall. Even if not... it may be through the upper end of Cat 2 and be quite the potent physical add-in to the music of the chorus here - I'm not sure if the models are handling that right. The GGEM ... for example, smears out a strong tropical storm looking feature ...and it's pressure depth is way shallow compared to what we already have, and this thing has stilll some development potential while already being stronger... It synoptic evolution in that smearing is to just sort of lose it along a warm frontal wave S of LI but ...what if this thing has to be integrating more physical exertion in reality - how does that change that... I see this kind uncertainty across the guidance bevy frankly - interesting...

Yeah... agreed. It's already substantiated the noteworthiness of the era/ hitherto conceptual layouts - but folks are a bit too addled by recent disenchanting model runs/ having to face the music and admit their expectations surged too far into a glops falling from tree limbs power outages vision of sugar-plumb winter fairies... lol Give it three weeks to marinade and folks'll be like ... oh, okay...it was proof of this tending to happen more in Octobers - sure.

Hmm.. may be some 'sour grapes' mentality affecting/effecting people's judgments and posted statements ... which is understandable - we're only human. But, .. this group of returning motley social media heads is biased, though we play games and 'act' unbiased much of the time hahaha I agree - in principle - regarding the thread titling. Having said that, I think there needs to be more responsibility at the individual level, to be objective on their own, and not be guided by 'headlines' So it goes both ways.. Buuut...being sensitive and realistic to the obvious, diplomacy in the word "threat" in the title ... probably wasn't so good. heh... Maybe that would have been better if it read, "potential" - leave it at that. Or maybe adding a qualifier like, '.. another October cold anomaly added to the growing number of them since 2000' - that would have conceptually prepped folks to engage in that conversation - rather than leaping past the reflective, thoughtfully engaging audience phase ... right into a mentality of frantic mouse-clicking, red-eyed dysfunctional obsession/storm fulfillment, don't past go, go directly to jail-cell of expectation one cannot be extracted or rescued from ... Lol I see this all the time... Once those cats get out of the bag, you can't herd them back in - people won't return to a objectivity. It's like there's a triggering mentality that is akin to trying to stop the bomb explosion after its detonation.

I agree with John Homenuk ... I can see the beginnings, like the foundation is being laid for a -EPO. Gosh, don't have the prognostic benefit of the CDC prior ESRL coverage - which was discontinued mid summer when the new GEFs systemic member density screwed up the calculations. I was emailed by them that their was no additional funding reserved for that arm of the coverage once the "improvement" of the forecast system was rolled in - I'm like, ... that's torpedoing the intent of improving tho - dipshits... Nice governmental solution - ... I'd rather the dimmer case loading, while maintaining the teleconnector coverage because whether people realize it or not, that is the most powerful foresight tool in the tool box - it's just not ubiquitously understood why to the lay folk, and even edubacated Mets seem dim on this mass-conservation fact/factoring and how and why they are divine if used the right way. But I digress... Anyway, it's just an early ...early look, but I would think post the the 10th of Novie we should see some multi-guidance source ensemble agreement for some sort of arced anomaly folding over western Canada - We may also go through mass-compensating warm oscillation to the hypsometric layout over eastern, mid-latitudes of N/A in the first week to 10 days of the month, ..prior to that kicking in... But I caution, that does not mean necessarily that we we'll get our faux summer out of that - the fast nature of the flow tends to exaggerate confluence intervals...such that we disproportionately load +PP through eastern Ontario and end up with E retreating surface highs ... it's why late May last year after the flip torched NW NNE and spared the MA to SNE... because of this same sort of offset phenomenon -

Not to parrot you're input here but just to add - sometimes we see this in the guidance, a tendency to 'over-correct' during the middling temporal leads. I mean we all know this.. But it is not a fixed timing, either. If a siggy system that verified, originally emerged in guidance on say .. D 10, invariably it probably spent some time if not a single cycle, aborted from said guidance .. usually midway en route, D 5 or 6 out from cyclone birth. I almost wonder if we went back and scoped out some 'positive busts' that were particularly noteworthy, if somewhere out among the din of ensemble members .. there might have been a version and cycle that did see it - but lost it. Perhaps it was merely too obscured by the mean and/or on-going op. versions stealing away deterministic attention ... It seems to be relative to the pattern in play, too. Like, if some huge ginormous SD event requiring a lot of massive multi-faceted, hemispheric teleconnector domain spaces be involved in it's integrated emergence ..the 'opp correction' interval may be further out in time. That may be 'geo-physical' in nature tho .. having that many moving parts in sync means there is a 'loud' signal, such that by virtue of that alone the modeling uncertainty as it relates to permutation and time constraining ... it would intuitively push all that farther out - But this is a middling cyclone at best - tho... some solutions 3 days ago we might have had 980 mb -ranged, plumbing in the NAM at near bombogen thresholds passing ESE of ISP ..notwithstanding. It is possible that we bring it back - even partial is a conceptual win for this present line of thinking... As an aside, reiterating: it seems we are tending to disrupt cyclones in this sort of 'mid-grade' construction/Norwegian Model, in recent behavior modes. It may be subtle ..and is not true absolutely, but it seems there are more multi-nodal 'pearling' of low along baroclinic axis with isentropic lift flopping over on the polarward side as events. When/if S/W jet mechanics can overcome the fast absorbing factorization of the flow ... they are by virtue so powerful enough that the low they develop is Halifaxian 2019 crazies -

Guys ... please - the NAM is outside of 36 hours.. The model really only scores middling grades with synoptic handling at < 36 hour cycles... Anything beyond that is not just caveat emptor, it's more like 'sucker beware'

Yeah,... I got the impression .. I just told Bostonseminole that this was a now-caster - it's just these edge- jobs want to flop either direction... This sort of smacks as 4-6" ...or flakes in the air.. but not much in between LOL

Yep...but I think we may have to now- cast this one as an afterthought - what's new. It's just riding that edge where it could tip either way

Mm hm ... "Dontclickhere.com"

Appreciated Kev' ah, yeah it's in that post dude "Dominion" ( https://www.amazon.com/s?k=dominion+john+l+ford&ref=nb_sb_noss ) ...actually No expectations though ... basically, the story centers around a genius who lost his soulmate tragically ...as on the brink of wasting away, when he's struck by an idea one day in a lecture series... It starts slow and techy - heh...what does one expect from me... right - but, 2nd half of the novel it gets more people/spiritual and softer in that respect. "Colton" is the main character and he befriends "Jack" ..who becomes his kind of like 'right-hand-man' ...and together, they bring Colton's idea over the top - but... the emergence of the technology becomes waaaay more than they bargain for. Artificial Intelligence is taking the reader into a deeper implication of the emergence of the soul - and when they turn it on... strange things began to happen... But, the real antagonism kicks in when "Dr Mendal," Colton's academic advisory... reads ... and per/for course approves Colton's new thesis idea - with more in mind. It deals with A.I., drone tech, and spiritualism, ...and also, synergizes Solid State physics with Biology for experimental aspects of the mind - ..so ..if one is interested ... it's 300 pages in hard print... so standard read.

Seasonal lag and precession is taking place as part of this era, too... It's not just Octobers doing these early snows ...it's April and Mays doing late one's too - though, we haven't had as many late ones, still .. personally noting more packing pellet/snow flurry May days in recent decades just the same - way more than the prior decades of the mid and latter part of last century. Obviously there have been some prior to 2000 ... '77 and so forth - but just that uptick in annoying late cold face-smack flakes that do nothing but increase domestic disturbance calls to local PD is statistically noteworthy -