Typhoon Tip

There's a moment when that occurs, just past dawn ... very fleeting. It only happens once if ever in a given autumn. This year.. not yet so far. The antecedent days features less wind. Then, a hyper efficient radiator night takes place... Decoupled and dead calm, it's 24 by dawn ... You step out side and the only thing you hear ...other than the distant white noise of arising society, is the flicking sound of the cold-air dead-fall just raining down. It's best if yellows and saffrons of orange and red hues, but this will do this with any stage, too. In some sense of a more discrete cause for this: maybe moisture in the leaf stems freezes, and as such ... it expands 12% with phase change. That expansion at last severs the last of any fibers that were fixing the leaf stem to twig, and so the leaf cuts lose. You can tell later that afternoon if this occurred, because you can see the old layer of dullard-colored leaf fall underneath a dappling of leafs still having their eye-pop. It's like a built in guarantee to deleaf the foliage, should the winds of autumn seldom return that year.

Keep in mind those are 2 mb isobaric intervals. Index finger rule works usually 90+% or so … 1mb ~= 1kt. Maybe 1020 delta 982 mb = 38 kt middle BL jet and let wind products and experience do the rest.

It could. … I am really just trying to raise awareness. -NAO’s over the western limb like this one are correlative with suppressed/southern cyclone routes. Meanwhile … model runs trickling in doing so/adjusting deserves consideration. But this is a storm developing toward the E. If it doesn’t stall/retrograde it may not be as bad for NYC even if south. I suspect ACK and the eastern end of LI are getting whiplashed. As far as coastal MA the wind/925 mb jet appears synoptic PGF mechanized … CCB but it’s odd vert sounding. This system may in fact rapidly transition into a hybrid, particularly in a NAM-like way S solution coup de etat … Im leery of Euro

That said ...should the present Euro run prevail.. suspect the best wind along the northern cyclonic slope would incur as that 970 mb low is retrograding W along or just immediately astride/under L.I.

The trend south may not be finished... Also, the diabatic corrections to the recent Euro upgrades - I'm wondering if it is over prolific with latent heat release and that is giving this a pseudo-adiabatic over-charging... (unless I'm wrong about that upgrade intention - I could swear I read that. It is considerably more deep than any other guidance, and is also fluctuating run to run by as much as 10 to 15 mb .. This isn't the first run to sell a sub 970 mb, and this off-on aspect trend = "discontinuity" so let us not forget basic 101 model coverage -

Subtle trends to ablate the higher QPF as this crosses now into the outer short range. Also, more than subtle trend in the American guidance to suppress the latitude just enough to spare the region the heaviest combination of wind and QP numbers... The 12z GFS really only misty rains and winds the region with the heaviest CCB core banding just clipping SE zones. I will draw attention that this is a west limb -NAO regime we are in during this thing, so a southern corrections are plausible. Even the Euro's hour 84 pivot SE - rather new in that guidance ... - may be a nod. We are also still in new version/release ... hm.. This may end up being a pedestrian impactor. Also, bearing in mind, big ticket phenomenon being normalized heading into short terms is an issue all guidance seem to have trouble with - it's been very noticeable over the past 5 years to the extent where it is almost dependable .. you wack some 30% off the top 'magnificence' of these D7 juggernauts - based purely on that rather dependable error, having this coastal/off-shore storm system end up a little weaker than the Euro 968 mb low from two days ago ...might not be a bad expectation, either.

Oh boy. This is either model feedback bs or the attribution buzzards are gonna be circlin

It’s a hurricaneaster

I thought it was warm secluded but that phase behavior fold back in after the fact. Huh

NAM may be too far N-W with that surface/lower troposphere but as is ...that 18z run is an interesting QPF scenario .. hearkens to 2006 May - though not synoptically analogous per se but the stalled CCB/WCB intersect that elevating the later into a back bent/TROWALing, bear some similarity nonetheless. And, over-top a forced ascent up-slope flow into the eastern whites would probably double that QPF it's already painting if that evolved that way. Thing about 2006 is that it was maybe 2 or 3 weeks out of cap melt and the shed was still heavy when that stalling/similarity took place. So.. prooobably doesn't result the same but ... at this time of year, the October variant may also be operating off a denser PWAT inject so -

It's interesting if not predictable watching that later 'big red spot' vortex start dampening out like that. I wondered this yesterday, if that thing might start devolving/morphing into something else. I mean it's not atypical for a double dong mid range to start favoring one end or the other as dominant ... Maybe that's happening here. Also, tough to ignore the emerging PNA look to the extended. EPS and GEFs appear in line for at least modest +PNAP, if perhaps in spite of La Nina. Although as we've noted, La Nina's tend to front load so ...heh, maybe we're on the verge of a rare Thanks Giggedy to Xmas winter ...followed by a January thaw+ CC signal, ...followed by a big blizzard bust in early February, before the annual 83 F on Feb 15 - yup ... that's the seasonal outlook. Forget the dissertations of peregrinated graphs and prose, and just go with that one run-on sentence.

As a winter storm enthusiast about to reentry into that season ... one should be happy that we are "setting a precedence for coastals" earlier on. At least per may experience - seasons that do that tend to parlay toward more of it as the cold season maturates. That may chap the asses of La Nina -centric seasonal footed outlooks... but it doesn't have to be true every autumn into winter, either.

Heh... yeah, different animal

This thing is also jumping around in the Euro guidance, ranging from ALB to southern NH to SE of ISP in the last 3 runs. Haven't detailed the other guidance.. But the lack of lower tropospheric baroclinicity isn't given the low genesis an anchor point ...the models are getting chaotic about where to put it over time.

that'd flood but not like Ida cinema .. . Guessin' not 14" of rain in 5 hours or whatever that was...

I think I'm losing my sense of autumn typology - what's it 'sposed to be like in late October --> November again? they've been so f'ed up the last decade. I mean, 4-6" snow'tobers, then 80 two-weeks later in November. But it's not snowing this October - that can't be right! Days get shorter with day-light and all, and maybe the air gets gradually cooler at some point - if I just focus on that, and ignore the climate land-mines going off around these reconnoiters toward winter. But then what of it... we'll just arrive into yet again, a disappointing shredded atmosphere of sonic speed commercial airline traffic in an overall HC compression gradient that rinse-and-repeat, at best, only weirdly fits whatever ENSO was leading. Finally, the polar wave # meanders around the boreal hemisphere to gives us our two shots at real storm event that only splits and gives Brian 45" in 9 hours, while the rest of us cryo-dust-storm our way to rationalized glory. It feels as certain as the portends prior to that Red Sox "forfeit" last night

Yeah ... The models have two on-going biases: They are consummately too strong in their total synoptic emergence' in the mid+ ranges And when they inevitably bust that way, ironically the system in question still [somehow or why] rains out 3-fold more than they were modeled to do so.

Probably a good opportunity to address the Euro amplitude bias ...for the 3,855th time ... wrt to D8 and EC -orienting cyclone synoptics. It's so badly ever verifying ... the obviousness of it builds into the observers expectations, such that ( phew!) we'd never have to see these charts get posted. Lol - Bustn' ballz a little but ...yeah, that looks like the Euro doing its typical dog-'n'-pony show of applying hyper-curved physical forcing to everything it happens to be handling at that time range. It basically does that at two time intervals: one is over the relay of D5+ ...The other is anytime after D7+ ... There is coherent sudden increases in the "complexion" and depth artistry of these graphics routinely out of ECMWF's product suite, that seems to just poof! Shows up like some kind of dram-lust magic It's part of their marketing ploy, I'm convinced... It only helps their sales/licensing if the model "users" are regaled by a stem-wound bomb on every other model-cycle. They're drug dealers - Anyway, I don't know if the EPS does this...but, looking at it - it's no wonder ( either way ) is is significantly more pallid compared to stalling a Category 3 "Hurricaneaster" over Time's Square.

Personally ...i'd settle for excitement and entertaining events and not so much for the damage. Ones priorities change when they maintain a mortgage heh

Walt ... oh Walter Drag ... haha, I just saw "Drag files here to attach, or choose files..." and coincidentally that reminded me of who you meant - weird. well I agree then But the GFS ( fwiw - ) has the warm front pinned to the S with a cad signature - also possible. But southern CT/RI down to NYC could be gunnin' in that GFS. The thing is, if the warm front does get to southern VT/NH, then a 500 mb vort goes by to the south, that's a wild few hours for the interior. Only D4 isn't the worst range.

You know ...now that I take closer look at the D4 synopsis off the Euro, that has an autumn- style synoptic severe potential. That 850 warm front is up to central NE...and the pressure contours actually suggest that the surface boundary might be displace N of the 500 mb trough amplitude ...situating SSW of NYC. Unusual for this time of year ... but that would supply sick helicity stress through the entire SNE column and doing with destablizing mid level lapse rates - with that 500 mb core as it approaches... Nice -

not that it matters either way ... anyway, let's play the 'wow, 'magine if that was deep winter when that happened' game

I pissed and moaned about the durational shit storm off the Labrador two days ago - it's not new

Welp ...this ought'n be the last warm- ish day for at least a little while. I don't suspect the warm calls for specific days ..what was that, 27th 30th and Halloween ? have a lot of confidence when we have suppressed back-drilling -NAO over the western limb of the domain, and an active Pacific relay pattern sending atmospheric nuke waves "under" our latitude. The Euro's been selling the last in the series as breaking in on itself and stalling over OH ... hm, cannot toootally refute that idea - after all ... -NAO is blocking. Particularly when the ridge/+hgt aspect is situating N of Maine. Weird region for that actually. But, the Euro also tends to curl up and package wave spacing too much beyond D5's in all older versions going back to 1990s ... I realize we've just "fixed" it but who knows if the former genetic inheritance is part of that. The GFS tries to stretch the flow more and make the whole time span appear more proper -NAO cyclone track suppressed. Which also ...cannot be outright negated as plausible. The blend of the two is probably a tendency for a long ... long stretch of easterly fetch of tepidly cool autumn air. Then, we'll see what that first week of Novie brings. I'm still interested in that time span for a more robust colder regime. It seemed originally as though that could arrive .. well, now, post the 20th, but it was always a rangy affair. I won't consider the telecon spread/mass-field tenor as a failed indicators until it gets clear that we don't.

I dunno - these autuman/seasonal book-end -NAOs have been a repeating theme for a decade now, regardless of ENSO types leading/during/enduring... I don't know if this is really "caused" by La Nina - it is just as likely that: a it is coincidentally occurring; whatever reason is driving the seasonal pro-lapse/lapse at either end phenomenon, happens to be happening when La Nina appears more coherent. We shouldn't get happy about connecting the dots when it's true/been true in multiple varied leading factorization. b it is both ...so the NAO is being augmented, but still cannot be "entirely" attributed to ENSO in that sense. c all ENSO driven ...which is what I suspect a lot of seasonal educated guess-work would prefer, because that's just an older popular mantra that - yes - has been shown to be (at least) statistically significant in climate efforts ..blah blah. But I caution that CC is making those historical inferences less confident moving forward. This has been hugely suggested actually, as the last two hefty warm ENSOs did not bear as much "El Nino destructive fruit" when observing the typical climate routes -