Typhoon Tip

you know what ...I think yeah - it was within two days of one month from the solstice ... not sure which direction.

Really should be the last one ... LOL There's been appreciable snow events into May ... and the definition of "appreciable" changes relative to absurdity. Like, ...I recall peering down from my 3rd floor window down upon Chestnut Street ... living in Waltham back in 2002, during wind swept mix of large cat paw rain drops and the occasional mangled bow-tie noodle sheeting down the street. May 20 2nd One month before the Solstice? Yeah ...that certainly qualifies as appreciable by shear insult ... That's the latest relative to calendar while at less than 1,000' elevation, along the 40 to 45 N latitudes that I recall sniffing snow. That event actually was putting down 2-3" in some of the Worcester Hills if memory serves - surprised that isn't talked about as much. Anyway, the notion cannot be completely withstood with that sort of thing, but we ARE definitely also on the curve of lessening returns. Plus, this always seems to happen and it's annoying ...albeit a petty observation of me ( shame...). But we're bathed in misery mist and snow for lucky folks at an obnoxiously late date, and the Euro ALWAYS does this - picks that psycho-babble moment when all these user strings are pulled by the present cold system like so it's 'totally possible,' to put out an unlikely look that way - just so we can play the 'pretend we're not hoping game' delusion. I really am not though. Man...

Wee ... the U.S. is lit up like a "death"mas tree ! ... not sure how anyone can be proud to be an American - or be dubbed sane if/when hiding from that truth behind politically obscuring dogma - evasive. End life, is not a state of mind. "Merry deathmas ... too youuuuuuuu"

yeah... as Scott mentioned a while ago, the 'inundation' phase may be past by the storm's life cycle,... now separating into a banded affair more so on rad and when it's mid April ...those attenuation regions may not do well - we aren't here. ..heh. When we maxed this beyotch ...circa 10 am, we were borderline S+ for a stint, and the temp made its way down to 32.X ... but since, we keep lulling on rad and ground truth has been light snow tending to fall more and more like white rain, and the temp has bulged to 35 ... So, if you're lucky enough to be in a band, cheers, but this isn't being fairly distributed as spring cruelty seldom ever is anyway - LOL

Heh ...just noticing ... Red Sox have a home game scheduled for 7:10 dunnite ... or perhaps "had" maybe apropos?

Yeah... all good questions. I don't know ...where does San Francisco situate theirs... Chicago on the Lake front... Miami.. ? New York City has Laguardia and Kennedy, but I think but they also have a downtown NWS ob site if I'm not mistaken and I could be - I'll take a look... But point being, a wish list item is that the subject be more seriously studied - I think it's just a low priority aspect to everyone accept nerds maybe. Say a day of + 20 C 850 mb dragon tongue is coming around a TV summer ridge node... Logan can often be the hottest temperature east of the Mississippi ...but even then a west wind may be unrealistic ( because although it is a islet, the western side of it in practical terms doesn't significantly offer any marine modulation, so it's hyperbole in that sense to call it an island). From late June through early August in that synoptic scenario, Logan's site being crisscrossed by tarmac, otherwise flat expanses under bake sun, serrated by observation and/or tin-pusher towers and metal hanger spaces ... It gooses the temp and so even screws up the west wind scenario. But you are right ...any vector that is more E than 185 ( or 10 the other way) degrees on the canonical direction dial pollutes the site down to the oceanic boundary layer - incontrovertibly so ... - and then the evening new guys/gals have go out of their way constantly remind, " ...but keep in mind that temperature doesn't represent what it's like on the western side of the city" - where there are actual physical bodies not coursing through heavily air conditioned man-made tubes and atrial settings.

Lol, and while they are at it - 'be nice if they could relocate/re-officiate Boston's official reporting site as not being located out in the in cold Labrador termination waters of Cape Cod Bay while they are at it... Oy - we dream. Not sure if you are aware, but Logan Airport is the official "Boston" ob site, which in a practical civilian sense and sensibility ? Absurd and always has been. Only when the wind is west ... perhaps 50% of the time granted, does that justly represent Boston - has always been just utterly a statistical fallacy otherwise - It's a marine -hybrid climate out there where that site sets upon an island on west shore side of the Bay...

It's interesting to see R p-type popping on and off frames of Intellicast's rad loop up along Rt 3 and 93 in NH, while here in Ayer along Rt 2 we are actually now decimals edged below 33 F with steady mid size uniform aggies... About 2" inches ... but suspect 4's fallen... Not gonna bother with snow board for this ..it just is what it is. April farmers gold, pedestrian muse and probably yet another CC -related seasonal lag event like the October-May phenomenon that's creeped into the climate books with increasing frequency since 2000 blah blah.. But when the snow falls from the wires and branches here it's not exactly glopping to the ground .. It's fracturing and flaking apart.

I see a distinct impression looking over how this is unfolding this morning ... as though this thing "shrunk" a bit ...It's much more nucleated and contained to a smaller area... I thought that we'd have this as a bigger gyre, with a perhaps a deform back to ALB district wrapping to western CT...and arcing underneath - but not sun shine in Bridgeport. Amazing.. Otherwise valley attenuation and other enhances moving W along rt 2 and S NH ... the latter seems to be happening but this is tight - tighter than expected for me. It's like the Whites are getting exaggerate numbers by 700 mb E anomaly bumping the saturable air flow up into growth regions and cheating that way, but if they were plainer landscape without that topographical assist I bet they'd be a shred fest of light rain and slush, and we'd have more of locally owned nucleus of blue rad ptype here in the core ...

Knee jerk morning coffee hot take: depends on how much time... Small Pox was "declared" eradicated by WHO/ world ... circa 1979 I believe, but it was something on the order of a 30-year campaign. Obviously the immediate rebuttals are: tech and ubiquity therein and the science of medicine are vastly superior at this end of modernity ... Of course they will team up to - maybe - make goals more satisfyingly faster. 'Don't know, but that seems to be comparing two eras that are too unlike, which risks false equivalency traps and so forth ... The other obvious aspect that leaps to mind is that Small Pox is not in the Corona virus family ... I'm 'pretty sure its pathogenicity is different - like you had to be right in the person's safe zone, almost sharing bio-spooge droplets closer to source; contrasting, SAR CoV2 is more robust and can hang in the air longer and remain viable, making it harder to contain..etc. They may both be trans via aerosol but the proficiency makes them tough direct comparison. Anyway ...to your point, I doubt these "vax everyone" thinkers come from a realistic logistical worldly awareness... And, spending the next 20 .. 30 years in masks, social distancing,... and ( gag ) persona of feigning virtuosity shit? I don't think society is signing up for that and the signs of 'silent revolt' are pretty much not so silent anymore as it is... It probably isn't what they really have in mind. My god. They're imagination is seeded in the fertility of convenience, which produces unrealistic visions of success. It reminds me of the Simpson episode from back in the day, where the kids of the on-going regular cast end up in a "Lord Of The Flies" rip on some island - the show did that regularly, mocking popular lit and cinema through their comedic lens. But there is this amusing sequence in there where Bart convinces Nelson Muntz and the 'bully faction' that there is no reason to oppress because "...With the monkey butlers serving us all, we'll live in paradise" ... Of course their doing cut aways to visualizations of Ewok-ian tree house utopic communities with the kids in hammocks being served umbrella drinks and burgers by monkey staff ... Awesome stuff ... 'Everyone vaccinated' ideology is very 'monkey butler-ish' naive. More seriously to point, they are likely naive to the point of disconnect ... Multi- generational cyclic conveniences become the way it is, a presumption ...and there's just no awareness otherwise.

Apparently ...they were discontinued as of March 31 citing site stability due to erosion as the primary factor/safety for personnel access to the station. I don't "think" it's intended to be permanent based upon the content provided here, https://www.weather.gov/media/box/Chatham_Closure.pdf

this event probably does 20% give or take better snow stack and intensity performance, with better lower atmospheric gradients. The whole system probably bombs and UVM is deeper in the atmosphere ..intersecting grown regions and all that jazz, a bit more proficiency. 33 F S- in Ayer. ~ 1/2" as of 9:15. At dawn there was no snow otg and none falling - although I didn't scrutinize for 'cat paw' content. Reports seem to suggest it was over to snow and snowing prodigiously just west of here prior to the dawn, but that was pretty well handled.. 226' elevation here at town hall, which is pretty damn low this far inland so we are definitely in a valley. The snow ( presently ) is uniform small to mid size wet snow aggregates, ...when this first commenced here roughly 8:15 ...we had a 1/2 hr of half fist size cotton swabs - It's interesting that last evening between 8 and 10 we did have cat paw and sleet pinging mixed with the rain beginning around 40 F. By 11 ..back to plain rain, but down to 38. It's almost like this system did a typical winter storm sequence, but aloft .... and rained down into a relatively warm boundary layer. If this were a winter lower thickness, we might have had snow to mix to rain at the front side of WAA ... the precipitation sequence last night seem to suggest that was doing that typology, but above the melt level. Then, secondary takes over and dynamics mixing in traced CAA, and all to snow now. I don't 'think' anyone gets 10" lower than 1,200 elevation .. but the 06z NAM seemed to boost QPF and has this rotting in the area through late afternoon... so we'll see who/where max pixel. The other aspect is that given daylight in August 24th equiv insolation, we may not stack everything that falls.. There's a distinction between how much is snowing has fallen, and how much is on the ground at any moment -

Hey where did our conversation go ? oh is that related to that row over vax the other day .. ah shit I made a cool written post about ‘zombie carriers’ (asymptonatic transmitters ) and wanted to rescue the line for me writin’ but it’s gone d’oh I guess didn’t think I was contributing to any fights but okay

What were his symptoms ?

I think were even a little ahead of schedule here I’m getting occasional pingers mixed with cat paws here at 39 I think we’re probably gonna flash snow here on radar as large puzzle chunks just turned blue at once Keep in mind air center is 200’ foot el. Np mixing at 39

Large cap paw rain drops here.

Seems to want to turn quick at a higher temperature than normal it’s now 39.5 and it’s cat paws and sleet mixed I knew this was gonna happen these top down events in the spring always snow at warmer temperatures

Cat paw raining here commenced at 8:15 Ayer. 40 F

Actually now 42. Wants to drop it seems. I can swear some rain particles already looking fat and some starring of them upon the wind shield but that's probably just me dorkin' out

Yo Mod power - can you del that other obs thread .. my bad! Didn't know this one was fired up when I started that - thx " This is a good case study on the topic of marginality and the excruciating difficulty there is in deterministic weather forecasting when at or < single degree C through critical vertical sounding structures will parlay vastly different sensible impacts. This might be a fun now-cast ride, because even with the ( recently debatable...) higher confidence Euro model only being 24 and 30 hours away, it's subtle movement variations across the last three cycles have meant < 1" to 15" impliations in Metrowest of Boston, and add or subtract as needed in how those runs might effect QPF and ptypes elsewhere. Agree with WIll that the locked confidence ( 70-80% being that lock numbers, if you will ..) probably Kevin to Hubb' up through EEN and the lower Greens over to the Whites, with perhaps a couple stripes near the river valleys out that way with temperature and local studies combining to shadow less. 11+ and now casting option for more... guessing 600 foot is where the stack efficiency gets better out that way. As for Willamantic CT to BED ... 20 miles either side... I'm not frankly sure how else to call that zone other than to average between Mt Watchpoopy and the Bourne Bridge ...and let the chips fall where they may. Maybe some sort of lockable consensus will materialize here in the next couple cycles, but I almost suspect this giga-motions right through the ordeal due it the whole structure sort of 'floating' at mid levels as opposed to being very well anchored to surface fronts/inflection points. Just wanna to take a moment to reflect that this mid April signal has been there for two weeks or more ... I personally let the subject go - because frankly...I hate and despise having it happen by this late in the spring. But, you now... lol - it's April. It's New England, and as they say in "Animal House," "Thank you, sir - may I please have another" j/k, but it's interesting that despite all journeys since this signal first popped in the American telecon, here we are after all. wow - Presently 44 in Ayer - dropping nicely... Down 8 in the last 6 hours... T-minus 4.5 deg before cat-paws commence

Not sure if you remember ( heh...yeah right; who am I talking to - ) but there was a Patriots game in October of 2010 where it snowed 2" of slush in the field and was waving by the stadium lights - I know because my buddy scored tickets to the game and texted me ever 10 minutes to inform me how it was the worse most horribly uncomfortable experience of his life up in the stands. Up here in Ayer the temp did exactly what you describe there - it was 37 when the drops got fat and started glowing as they streaked by, and then at 36 it was over to slush with big cotton balls occasional when it fell to 35. An inch in the grass and car tops... then it was 34.5 and for about a 1/2 hour we were ~ 3/4 mi vis or so... But then ... it got light and was back to light slush flakes along side tiny raindrops as the system wound down that evening at 37 ...with that smell of snow in the air mixed with wood smoke nostalgia. But I could see that here... sure...only this thing has much stronger fall rate potential so... that might punch the 34.5 to 32.7, with a longer duration...etc.

Ironically ...I'd be fine with nothing for that matter. Ha ha, don't even want snow personally ... not this late. 78 F with maple blossoms beginning to fill the air with scents that trigger homage and visions of dream girl ( or whatever floats one's WOKE-boat ... ), seems difficult to compete with if were up to me. ah hell. But to become a Met Jedi Master, over come one's fears must you

See... it's got continuity issues - three runs, three placements, boom boom boom, all having significantly enough sensible impact difference that it still, despite the short range, has uncertainty headaches. The problem also is that this is very delicate with unusually small wiggles having unusually large variances ...shorter distances, amounts and ptype. It's magnifying these run to run issues as being more than they might typically mean? I'm not sure in February, with an antecedent -8 C over Logan to HFD ... the difference between the 06z Euro and the 12z Euro means a whole helluva lot and probably gets ignored, so long as there's a 2" QPF liq equiv arc in the region... who cares - right. But placement ...and excruciatingly narrow thermodynamic pubes under the sheets still dictate how this thing blows its load and where.

mm... may be a now-cast at/beneath the 600 foot line ..

Ha ha... Lot of hedging going on in here today ... Can't say I blame anyone under the circumstances. No one wants ...or perhaps "dares" is more like it, to call a major snow storm in this, and probably...taking the peevishness and averaging it against the 06z Euro/12z NAM FOUS grid ... probably yields what Ryan sort of just laid out for CT ...ranging to 12 or 14 up there at 850" els by the border with NH ... Might be time to just call that and let the chips fall where they may - or in this case... parachutes.