Typhoon Tip

right

I don't like the fact that those are riding over the top of a third trimester pregnancy in the deep south -

Ah... sorry, but it'd have to be an anomaly nested inside another anomaly to get either one of those two Euro depictions to transpire. Which, is compounding the odds against - it can happen though. And I'm not numb to the notion that other guidance are showing more interest. That does lend something of confidence.. That said, we are still stuck with greater than average uncertainty beyond D 4 .. 5 in any given guidance, to to the inherent limitations of fast flow under/30-50 N with inconsistently placed blocking above those latitudes every other cycle/model type... Those two aspect working together is beyond the state-of-the-art of the modeling ambit I'm afraid. I am also not numb to the crowd sensitivity in the matter, and that bruised backs don't need reminding of inherent limitations - I just figure/hope folks don't get carried away in those solutions. If we carry that look with several cycles ( more so than less...) and end up on 96 hours ...different ballgame perhaps.

My Met friend is right. The cold air did get muted this week ...

GGEM has moved the entire polar branch of the westerlies through SE Canada ...NE of its 00z axial position by some 1500 km ...becoming more evident by the 120 hour interval, and then maintains that bias through D6/7... effectively allowing the 26th to both maintain more coherence in the meat-mincer machine,... but also a more N trajectory.

You make fun of that .. because you hate the fact of its truth and inevitability - face your heartache and conquer that way. That's your salvation - through acceptance.

I noticed something subtle about the UKMET ... notice it's NAO block is more over the Canadian N. country/archipelago - it's not really over even the D. Straight region. In fact, it's so far W that it's even come off the western boundary of the domain space somewhat. Then... the wave in the M/A is suddenly situating enough N to at least clip CT-RI-SE regions... ? Not sure that's unrelated - Thing is, this is delicate needle threader pattern ...I mean like situational stem-ware situated between a couple of elephant asses. It wouldn't exactly be the first time that placement and amplitude of blocking nodes was inconsistent in guidance ..lol

Yeah sir - in the spirit of commiseration only ( so taken with the grain - ) ... the end of the 06z GFS operational ends the first week of Feb with still nothing to show. And at that time, we are passing through the event horizon of the solar nadir's end ..heralding in solar spring. Oh, the climate and lag and reality all team up and keep snow chances going until May ( stealing our warming/warm season when it does ) granted, but ... in the spirit of commiseration, if we're still in with this crap on Feb 6 I'm checked out. I don't care if 1888 walks through the door - I don't give a ratz shit f-sake what it does.. cold season shenanigans take a backseat to visions and memories, nostalgia of warm season affairs. And no, that does not mean I'm tying those aspirations to the cinema of model depictions so don't anyone try to couch the above sentiment in with that lunacy -

Does it have to be so dramatic ? lol - Not sure about the M/A ...they do tend to do better relative to their own climate in suppression - whether that is NAO driven or for whatever reason.. But as far as here? I took that as 'raise one's hand if guessed less' in general - I wasn't getting into specifics of CD inches received.

I just explained why - ...and adding to it, notice in that very same image you've got very little if any Pacific help relaying any kind of constructive wave support -

The FOUS method still suggests this type of WINDEX instability swaths over the region this afternoon ... Has the LI jump, the RH > 50% and the T1 to T5 is pretty damn steep as far as lapsing - It's just not quite as pronounced as it was yesterday when we brought it up - Funny how this season has done that - seems there's a fairly significant correlation between seeing/observing reasons for hope, and immediate subsequent model depiction finding least excuse imagined to rule it out as remotely plausible - lol... It's like the AI of modeling has evolved a deviant machine-intelligence that's going, 'oh yeah - take that'

well yeah... that's part in parcel -forcing by the Pacific pattern relay into N/A providing that, yup - bingo. Agreed. I'm just focused west personally ... I'm trying to figure out if: this is all La Nina driven ... or HC masquerading as La Nina by virtue of both having the ability to enhance easterly trades/pile warm water west of the Dateline... OR ( if that were not enough - ) some impossible to parse out quantities of either working in irregular tandemization - Here's the thing, the la Nina is not more than moderate in strength. Plus, the total flow characteristic is not very La Nina like over the Americas. I read the MJO publication weekly by CPC and I they keep saying the circulation identifies with the La Nina base-state. Do to the impossibility of parsing issue ( mentioned abv) I'm forced to agree - I mean there's no way to know what is caused in bulk weight for HC or Nina... Again, stressing the point that they mimic - and probably - constructively wave interfere with one another. But that base-line resembling of La Nina is not true over the Americas, either. So there's got to be other things systemically undefined here - In fact ...it's not a huge hypothetical leap to suggest that the oddities and idiosyncrasies that have been so distracting all along ... maybe it is something like a Nina being so super charge by the favorable HC ( and vice versa ) they've gone so as to "click" into the next gears up the transmission - so the waves end up aligning this way. It's sci-fi, hence the word "hypothesis" ..lol. But yeah. We also spent a lot of time in Novie through mid Dec complaining/opining/observing the apparent lack of Nina signature to the on-going maelstrom ... Then, as the cold season got thick, this has evolved... with this extraordinarily +WPO ...so violent that it's sending the inverted correlation state into the EPO ...by latent heat fluxing at an exceptionally long R-wave - causing heights to try and rise over the NE Pacific while the WPO remains positive. The warm water piling over the western Pac/ NINO 4 and west ...when the normal Asian/NW Pac Boreal heights fell during the autumn might have triggered this planetary jet response out around eastern China and Japan, so intense that it's lowered heights on the polarward side of that flow and pulled the PV off its kilter... That seems to be why the SSW emerged the more I'm looking at this. Not a standard model SSW ... ( and I like that too, because the QBO is technically anticorrelated in the westerly phase during the autumn leading the apparent SSW - doesn't lend to it truly being a top-down event, but one injected by unusual planetary wave dispersions - it did ...after all, manifest at the arc of the Pacific Basin ). But I'm not sure that matter really ... Whether the SSW is causing, or is caused, ...we're stuck with a weird western Pac jet anomaly,... failed NE Pac modeled height responses, and a whopper -AO that was already in place prior to the "SSW" - that's a red flag over what preceded and where the causality is located in my mind. I begin to suspect the La Nina works in tandem with HC is constructively causing this hemispheric emergence.

Not actually a terrible awareness/ ..surmise - I was extolling through descriptive flare just yesterday, when a given region comes under anomalies ...said anomalies can at times hammer relentlessly. Then, when said region has actually been beaten to death, losses incalculable ...THAT's when the anomaly starts hammering - The Earth makes sure. It's various systems are abusive ...cruel, without remorse. - to expect remorse from a 'persistence' scenario is an anthropomorphic fallacy - obviously .. goes without saying. But in 2015, we were being hammered the other way - few people complained or thought to introspection on the matter, did they. Ha "Weather" we are being hammered for 'good' or 'bad' is entirely a human distinction. There's no agency deciding who gets what, poetically. It just so happens to be, since we are homogeneously encased in an atmosphere that by and large will delve ubiquitously given enough time, it does in the instant seem unjust. And, arithmetic of averages hides the iniquity of the distribution. ...so to speak. But the forces governing this particular cold season's patternization have diced their way into a kind of 'stuck' scenario. These ridge nodes and blocking at 60 N, whether by formal SSW anchoring or some quasi -variant therefrom, they are not likely moving. They have situated in a proof that the -NAO was/is never the snow savior assigned to it - that I have had on-line arguments for decades over ...get proven right, and then have to go through the debate all over again when the next year comes around and the J.Q. Poster starts chatty-Kathy louting 'NAO NAO NAO' all over again... and again and fallacy again... Hopefully, this year will at last get that lesson across - NO, THE NAO WAS NEVER GOOD FOR US. It's better for western Europe... Just like the -EPO is better for us You can get into to narrow ranges where it may be more favorable; for starters, it has to be in modality. By virtue of 'narrow' that means rare ..that means, not good for us by standardized convention and f'ing logic! Aside from the mathematics that a changing NAO domains is caused by non-linear influence by wave dispersion downstream of the Pacific - giving a faux effect of forcing coming from the NAO domain. Which means..the 'storm' is caused ... by the Pacific. The more I think about there where it is situated stuff, I start to go 'mm' - if it is East biased, you could philosophically argue that it's not an NAO for us anyway. So that's kind of denial of truth distinction there. That all aside... This is probably about as negative wave ( destructively ..) interfering as is mechanically possible in the natural physics of the fluidic atmosphere. Label a region ...I can tell you exactly why it's wrongly oriented as an exertion someplace else... at all scales and dimensions - it is what it is. I don't believe Jan 29 has any hope of manifesting more impact than we've already seen hallucinated by machine enhancing - ...The suppressive nature of the total flow construct is needs to change - the western limb of the NAO has a ridge node that given typical R-wave spread, does not permit a cyclone genesis/transit S of the mid Atlantic. There are anomalies relative to anomalies ...yup - that's about the only way here... OR, the systemic structure needs a dry-eraser board swipe, something seriously badly, in lieu of a whole new paradigm.

0.34% chance

Norlun for the 26th on this GFS

Probably pretty bad when just because it is, we still don't get the winter storm of hopes and desires...only to relay into a three snow shower afternoons May ending in a June 1 synoptic slush event

We still have to go through a perfunctory 18.7" Kutchera cycle ... en route to partly sunny stein ..don't worry. But at least the yokels 'll get a nice Blue Magic O.D. run during that tortured journey -

Hey ...I wasn't far off - not bad LOL

I understand the interest ...but, Siberia just spent what ... 7 years > normal 90% of the time. This may not even typify their whole winter but just a several week stint within - I don't know though. Not only is the ballast of GW being registered in the nocturnal temperature behaviors ... but, the models aver that the frequency of disruptive events should increase along the with the change. I think running along at some acclimated 7 year above normal stretch, then having that rudely offset by a Medusa cold wave fits that.

What was the WINDEX check list that was floating around out there in the earlier web days... Man, I regret not saving that. I google it now and it's hard to find. The only thing I remember about it was the vertical temperature/lapsing and the LIs ... You're talking about tornado stuff there - lol... Kidding, but my memory of that check list from the mid 1990s was: R1 RH > 50% LI jumps up +9 And a T1 to T3 lapse rate of > -9 but those were FOUS numbers. No one uses those grids anymore so... that may also be why the old checklist as I recall is harder to find nowadays. Which incidentally the FOUS does show these criteria met ( abv )

ha ha... over that? man, just wonder - could aspects ever become so dire, that an obs thread gets fired up over the prospect of a cumulus cloud.

You know ( or perhaps more apropos, 'don't wanna know' ), the climate reports, from observation to science/prediction and back ... all have been saying that the ballast of the global warming signal has been captured in fact by the nocturnal numbers. Last summer... now... I mean, this is all consistent with that, whether it is coincidental or not. It's probably some of both. I mean, GW happens in decimals... It took a century to go up 2 C or whatever it is... point being, we got to be +10 on the lows if we're +4 on highs or whatever in order to sustain a +7 at ORH ...that's not GW ... obviously .. ( man I'm bored today LOL ) .. else we be in trouble

Perception is politics ... When 90% of civility sleeps when it is dark, and the ballast of the above normalness of it has been .... while it is dark, they are not readily perceiving the warmth. To say the least, it's truly is insidious ...because 34 F for a low ...no one considers that temperature comfortable regardless - I mean, this could not be a better elegantly calculated method for smashing records and hiding intents and purposes... hahaha. Seriously though ...the randomality of all has this going on while no one is looking - .. It's like last summer in some respects. I think we put up some pretty warm JJA numbers but it never felt particularly hot outside. I remember more memorable heat waves over the decades... Last year seems sort of tepid to very warm at times, before receding back - good convection though. I know it wasn't ubiquitously experienced but I clocked 8 severe warned events here in Ayer, and half verified with limbs and hail....wind. We had some really good lightning too, despite the U.S. lightning data saying the whole country was way down. interesting.

I had heated arguments about the NAO ...jesus, 12 years ago? holy hell - .. but those arguments were because posters would implicated -NAO = snow... wrong. Winter storm enthusiasts don't want a statically depressed NAO index... particularly one that is west based. That is actually true with any and all indexes though, not just the NAO. When the PNA or the EPO or the NAO ... etc, are unchanging, that means that they are in a state of equilibrium with respect to the other indexes, which represent conjoined regions that are influential back and forth ... mass exchange. Equilibrium = fair weather. That is simplest way to conceptualize the complexity of Index modulation there is. If the NAO...or PNA...or WPO...AO...etc., are changing, that means that the equilibrium is off... the 'stalemate' is broken - wars have begun that way ... And in this case, the war is a storm. Storms are simply what happens when the atmosphere is trying to get back to a state of equilibrium. Having said that ... the NAO is not our problem. Nope... This shit was going on last week when the NAO was not representing much of a quantifiable block up there. We have one now... And it arrived without a correction event - ... which for the indexes et al, we are on the western side of the NAO domain, pretty much on the boundary of where it terminates into the eastern end of the PNA really .. Since the prevailing weather ...wind, pattern, S/W ...L/W ...all of it, is west to east, an index change in the NAO can conceivably be observed without, because the forcing is heading east more readily. It's probably why Heather Archembaults statistical representation of these concepts also concluded that the correlation was much stronger with the PNA than it was in the NAO, which demo little skill.