Typhoon Tip

You guys are spending waaaaay too much time philosophizing the NAM lol So it's not even the 8th ... it's the 7th now... okay - was the 7th on the 06z Euro then?? Let's get this "bent" more than it is already: the last two days, we've focused on the 7th, the 8th, 9th and 10th ... while I - of course - bloviated to an empty room over the 11th through the 15th, all over a-b-c-d-?E? events happening in x-y-z/ 2.5 day-span time intervals... Jesus, we don't need a Sven diagram for this cluster f, we need a new General Theory of Relativity

I assume we mean Sunday evening in coverage here - I was thinking when I looked at the last three cycle -trend of the NAM, that this smacks pretty painfully as the typical NAM-o-rama-ding-dong circus clown act of popping the low deeper and ominously NW like frames in a movie, clicked along in three or four short cycles. You know...go to bed, wake enabled. Lol. I mused internally, '..This may even do this one more run and get even more impressive, before boom boom boom three cycle trend goes half way back to the original nothing...' And what we end up with is a flat wave of 1/3 potency overall, tickling LI/S RI and the Cape with light snow... towing along an angry bevy of blue-balled storm neurotics It's not a declarative forecast lol... I just have the experience - ... the NAM between 48 and 60 hours back in the day, almost always had a NW position bias... Now, granted...we are out there in the 72 hour frame, but... I'm not sure if the former has ever been addressed when they increased it's range to 84 hours 10 .. 15 years ago whenever that happened. I may have a bias against it for those early years - sure... Will's right - the NAM is not alone though... I am not dim or stubborn to that notion. So I guess ... grudgingly, we have table the notion -

I wish we could adapt a rule/policy that all references to specific events must include a date said event in question is referring ... If the post does not contain a date it's content is intending to hone .. it gets torn up shredded in an anime where the posts material is destroyed right before the poster's eyes.

-- Two vaguely coherent systems out there actually .. The 8th, now on life-support, and as of 00z the Euro introduces the 9th more aggressively than prior runs - and apparently something's up with the 06z Euro? Not sure which feature is in discussion regarding the 06z Euro. Scott's right - whatever happens of either of these two systems they are in and out with rapidity. The compression/speed saturation doesn't lend the other way. Could be sprayed by several 1-3 or 3-5" ers over the next 10 days. I wouldn't even be shocked if the 8th came back, and 9th pancakes S again... Fast flow with high sensitivity for latitude placement based on utterly invisibly subtle physical exertions, means that positioning these 'events' in space and time will require shorter lead to gather confidence in what happens and where. -- I mentioned later in the evening last night about the 11-15th event period of interest.. As is typical at this sort of deep range, whatever is triggered in that range, in models, is wobbling spatial-temporally .. ranging to other models not having anything. I have seen it back closer to the 12th, 13th ...18z GFS had a juggernaut centered on the 14th... 00z, bombs eastern NE with a ferocious cyclone through the Harbor. These are variations that - to me - appear tapping into the emerging general numerical instability ..not necessary honing ( duh ) anything necessarily real. But there may be tremendous baroclinic gradient between 35 and 45 N .. left in the wake of next week's -EPO cold soak/compression flow.. Rather classical, regime change then offers correction event potential. Last three night's tele progs at CPC indicate the -NAO renewal ..and most op. and their ens means flag west limb variant ... whilst the PNA tandem rises in the GEFs mean to ~ +1 SD... telecon convergence ... But first we deal with these smaller synoptic perturbation ... and keep dreams alive that one over-produces. I don't think the ceiling is too high in this regime-like pattern incoming because aforementioned compression not allowing for differential processes to unfurl ... but, who knows - the ICON solutions from the other day, while obviously unlikely, didn't formulate in a physical vacuum of forcing in that guidance so it shows that nothing's impossible. Or like this 12z NAM run ..heh.. but, the NAM's patented NW bias beyond 48 hours of 10 years ago ...I don't know if that tendency has somehow been corrected and that smacks as that. It's like this in this maddening type of flow construct - yin and yang pro and con head game.

In the meantime that is a lot of compressed waves struggling to hold onto identity but may still have enough to swath occasional synoptic moderate wintry bursts. 2 day periodicity

Yeah that’s the 11-15th event .. its been wobbling spatial-temporally back to the 12th and 13th ... this version is more 14, but the entire period is in teleconnector convergence with dropping NAO ( impetus being not already dropped ), tandem +1 PNA arrival. Cold load is completed and in place while gradient aspect associated (flow compression ) relaxes; meanwhile said tele field disparate sourcing transmits and results super-synoptic/synergistically promoted deeper negative geopotential anomaly ... again ( and it’s early ) another 90W-60W by 35N-50N inside of a month ... both -NAO over the western limb of the domain I believe is useful/referable. It’ll come and go ...but suspect this has another hemispheric footing in that period of time

It's time sensitive a bit ...but these graphics indicate an interesting phenomenon - TD designation over land, and a long duration survived track .... over land tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=austwest&sname=18S&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0 This thing is tiny, too... We've seen anvil explosions in April 'Plains thunderstorm outbreaks dwarf that little guy. If someone were sitting out in their lawn chair, ... 70 or so miles away, it's not likely this thing would even fill the horizon. It's things like this that challenges the definitions we put on atmospheric events that tuck them neatly into categorized phenomenon. It's like a lamphoon - =maybe. Thing is, I've seen that around the NW coastal region of Australia before ... there are over land Invests and TDs.. Something about that region's climo -

Lol, but we've been doing that all morning and mid day... pages of it -

I do now fo' sho' ... I lost a lot of weight. I'm a fairly tall guy at 6'2" ...so toting around 230 physique before, it wasn't like I had some unsightly front-butt or anything. Taller people spread it around yuck .. Anyway, now I weigh like 180 -or as of last check. Maybe 185 mid winter lbs. By choice ... lifestyle adaptions. And I don't really eat much sugary shit like ever.. Not shy about vegetables and Nature's natural candies ...like melon, berries and mango fruit. It's amazing, that kind of sugar makes you lose weight - fascinating. Once you get used to eating that, it can almost be too much. Telling you ..industrialization of foods has seriously f-ed the human palate into a captive provisional psychology. I work out every day ... except about once per two weeks on average. Oh, I'll get invited to some distancing- protocols violation .. Or, finally it just catches up and I need the rest..I did that two days ago. I notice it's time when I feel like I'm breaking speed records on the stationary bike, ...come to find I'm five minutes slower - D'oh. I can do this because I sequence between Elliptical, Peloton, and 10 K runs ... start over rince repeat...Such that there's 4 days between the next time I do them - Those are different muscles I guess... it works for me. Anyway, where I'm going is that I get cold ? ...I do... I have to have my house at 72 now or my hands get cold. I have noticed since losing weight that a situation like that is more and more so a welcoming sensation. If it were like 48 F late March day and I wanna run to the store, my car is so cozy. Lol

It's interesting to me that we ( at least I ... ) have not seen a cross-polar Siberian express -type conveyor orient its self through this PV weakening saga this mid winter. It's been like that above.. the flow sort of migrant around lily-pad blocks and ridge bombs - ...sort of ending up with weird hemisphere that's difficult to really ascertain the R-wave counts...but there are those nodal cold wells in the rampart around like we see above. It's not a 'kidney bean' look where you have a nice arced NE Pac hemispheric footed ridge that -EPO pulses and the flow transports. Meh...there's enough cold and that's a stormy look. Just an odd observation

Mmm ... I don't ever 'worry' about the sun angle - I've seen blowing snow cob-web off of flat roof eaves on April 10th at 1pm in the afternoon. Sun angle at our latitude may be over-assessed as a limitation. It's influence on modulating the environment is obvious; foliage triggering, and when the atmosphere supports a warm afternoon, it will supply the energy to get there. The hemisphere warms that way .. and thus, supplies of cold become ever premium. But, a cold, fresh supply of polar air under the density of a crying CCB head, wins as late as that time of year. Shoot, just last year we witnessed virga exploded CU with snow flurries surviving the fall to the ground, while May sun was undercutting the falling shafts ... The solar stuff I've brought up in the past, that's in deference to the nadir ending and is another discussion aspect altogether. It's just like everything; folks want to have nice neat tidy boundaries that categorize aspects of nature into obeying groups of behavior but ... the lines are blurred. All it means is that it gets harder and harder to snow as the spring ages away from winter... and then in July you get 10 days when it's like 99.999999% chance of not happening ... at which point the percentages start dropping ... until January, when there is a 99.999999% chance of bi-polar flights of euphoria followed by neurotic inconsolability

Still suggest the 11th - 15th is the next bigger ticket item... If the 8th comes back against the odds of that synoptic evolution ... so be it. But there is another converged teleconnector era ... PNA rises positive during a polar index relaxation leading to the Ides

I think of February as the first creak in the door as the ghost of seasonal change. Meanwhile, protracted talcum powder bombs may be choking civility LOL but it's still out there. The solar turns around and like I said, we're just talking a creaking here - don't get one's panties in a bunch. August is the antithesis ... if you take all August ( February's ) in history, and compared them to the rest of those years ... the ballast will demonstrate that the corner actually turns in those months, probably well prior to anyone taking sensible notice. Anyway, not sure what the EPS is doing ( maybe Will's weeklies would be interesting but my snark impression is those are pretty N/S -like beyond D. . maybe 11 or so... ). The GEFs show lingering neggie AO though. IF IF IF this -AO is driven along by the SSW stuff ... that can plague springs with unusable -NAO pulsing. Spring BDs cold mist seem to occur at least excuse. However, this SSW --> -AO occurred earlier than spring killers of past though. When that happens in mid or late February, the ensuing spring doesn't exist... You get that gamma-winter that flips to a heat wave in the first 10 days of June; after which a cooler, dryer than normal summer with a whopper anomaly in boredom characterizes the west of the way. But in early Jan like this one... it may gestate over-with and render the spring back to a La Nina controls. Which is ...what? I "think" it's mild/warm in the OV/MA? HC is always there, too. La Nina is would tend to constructively interfere with that ... unclear what that emergence would entail but it doesn't sound on the surface like we're heading for a wintry March. Maybe this should be entry post for "2021 Spring and seasonal change monitoring"

I think Will might have mentioned this but the 9th swish through by the GGEM ... That's a carbon copy of the 8th - the model's just swapping out wave emphasis. The 9th's is about as close to an identical production as a fluid medium can create .... To me that overall in principle means either ( but not both ) are equally as likely to occur, as not at all - What a fuggin' exact metaphor for a crap's shoot that handling is from Sun - mid next week! ugh

Now's about when the Euro comes roaring back - haha

I just commented on that ... agreed. It seems this ICON fosters these robuster solutions whenever it opens up even a little in the timing of the Pac S/W ( 72 hours for example )

The ICON slowing that 72 hour position down by 300 or 400 km in the longitudinal axis out there careening down the Front Range region of the west, might be a good thing for winter storm enthusiasts ... I mean, there's a direct homage to the aforementioned sensitivity issue in this guidance - these ever so presumptively innocuous variances, run to run, are making for the difference between 12" thunder storm snows like the 18z run yesterday ...versus a gentle light to moderate Currier&Ives CCB 06z over night... Now, we have just slight timing difference allowing that intermediate stream wave in the MV to remain more cohesive and boom, back to a robuster short duration major impactor - Certainly is an exciting 12z solution ...and I have been watching the ICON's systemic handling this winter ( once and for all ..) to give it a chance ( so to speak ) and have noted that among some other frustrations ... it tends to too much warmth in the boundary layer - sample size is short ...so bear with that... The antecedent air mass benefits from a fast flow in that the cold reload post Friday's system prooobably does not have time to modify substantively and any 8th ICONic fantasy ...however borne of truth shall it become... would need to be a colder solution modulation ( most likely ) anywhere NW of the low track. I have seen the ICON look consistent and blow it passing the baton through the temporal seam of the mid range into nearer terms in this trial so... Please, just bring back the Euro solutions yesterday, that were mid way between the unlikely history bombs, and the 00z GFS zealous cremation shit ... and then we'll have the seeds of consensus ...

As Walt and others have pointed out ...this is a highly sensitive to small perturbations in streams causing forecaster/determinism headaches - so out of the gates this needs to be built into people's awareness: we enter a lower confidence modeling period in general, spanning the 4th through the lead up to whatever happens nearing the Ides of the month. There is also a tandem emergence of a robust -NAO (western limb variety ) ballooning near the D. Straight and this is adding a tricky wild card. Fwiw and having said that, I am relatively more impressed with the 11-15th time frame, actually, than either Friday's ... or the 8th. By Friday, the whole of the continent and in fact the quatra hemispheric scope has/is entered(ng) into an N/ stream dominant circulation type. Because of the nature of what that entails.. then considering existential model usage and familiarization with their biases therein: -- the GFS probably runs away with suppression/shearing tendencies and will thus have difficulty even seeing narrow "needle thread" events. This will at times be so extreme that even desperately flat waves, all but entirely damped out and holding onto mere threads of identity get taxed yet further by that model's Marxist physics ( lol ). -- the Euro -ilk will ( excuse the anthropomorphism ...) "attempt" too hard to compensate N/ stream related longitudinal stressing - some of which is of course going to be real. It perhaps 'corrects' for it when the anomaly gets excessive - just a hunch - and I think 120 kts canvased circulation eddy wind is getting there. It's like it creates a window via correction processes, then capitalizes it's own creation using the extraordinary baroclinic gradient that the fast flow inherently caps shut ... Whatever it is doing or however it gets there... it is probably owing to engineering that historic 960 mb circular arctic sander bomb low it attempt to grind Worcester off the face of the Earth just a couple a 12z's ago. Friday .. is the leading edge of a -EPO or quasi(pulsed) -EPO surge of cold loading ... resulting from constructive interference with ridging between the arctic and polar streams ...however briefly, over the NE Pacific. The affects downstream from those changes are heralded along by that Friday torpedo in the westerlies. The entire geopotential medium is the process of becoming gradient saturated, and together with the impulse's own 140 kt jet max, rockets in the change. It is an interesting circumstance that emerges out of that quickening flow. Its drilling the baroclinic nexus so fast, it is outpacing the advection terms ( WAA ), and that forces the triple point to zip shut down the cold frontal length as the cold front bulldozes under the warm sector faster than that lead air mass mix out... That will also mean less time or success for warm intrusion N of ~ mid Jersey/NYC ... I've seen that type of frontal tapestry in fast flow regime-like circumstances, ...many times, and this appears existentially textbook. So what that means, is probably not a huge warm up before the R-wave rollout re-introduces the -EPO loading cold to the 40th parallel across the continent... But it could also introduce a 'smells like rain' period of wet aggregates prior to cold sweep clearing the coast ... which set stage for next Monday? The 8th latter event suffers the same speed headaches. There is enough presentation as others have noted, across the bevy of less dependable guidance types ... but also hinted in the EPS and GEFs ... These open progressive waves can bomb ... they have to be precisely how the 18/00z ICONic solutions carried it - pristine handling... Okay... It's too early to thread that that, unfortunately .. the only way to scaffold confidence and compensate for the exceptional difficulty of high sensitive, fast perturbation prone hemispheres, is with the nuts and bolts and girders of ensemble/ and better consensus from operational members. Right now it is too difficult - for me anyway .. - to homogenize an appeal. Looks like buckshot model gunning The one after that ...I am really more interested. That compression period is waning at that time, and as is typical post-ward ( in guidance here too), there is a window where the SPV elongates - creating a western limb that bides time. This is when/where the -NAO mentioned above may play a more important/transitive role in the Lakes, OV/MA/NE regions. It will be setting, by-and-by, with the SPV vestige sandwiched erstwhile inbetween the waning fast intermediate Pacific jet ... weakening yet still careening strongly through the middle latitudes of the CONUS underneath. That's a powder keg for subsume phasing mechanics. What we need to really cash in and drive a super synoptic scaled feed-back scenario, is really just a well times Pac S/W to squirt through the MV... It 'dents' the heights along its translation, and that is like taking the stopper out of a drain... The exertion of the NAO black exerts S, which exerts the SPV fragment S, and then phase is on, provided the flow isn't too crazy fast - which... because it is waning, the latter is satisfied. Bingo bombo - I don't know in this case. But, there are hints in the operational models - but even those that do, shirk that hemispheric potential ( imho - ) ...for all this. It may just need time to cook in the guidance/ensemble means, but ..should something of a larger/ mechanical elephant materialize in time, not a surprise for me. Time will tell... The GGEM 240 and the V16 (as supplied at PIVOTAL) elucidate this hint.. But, I see the general large scale framework of potential in everything really ... still quite obscure and not dependable.

GFS ‘ native bias issue with N/stream exuberance and overly deep integrate heights on the polar ward side of the polar jet ... causing velocity surplus is subtle but real, all of which makes it more uniquely qualified to fu up that needle thread scenario. I feel more confident in the GFS crushing the field oppressively and erroneously shear stressing it to negligible than I would describing ‘what’ transpires; but I do feel there’s something there. it’s an N/stream dominant circulation type through the period in question ... and you give the GFS of all models that inch it will gladly take a mile’s worth

Yup ...that ICON solution is exactly what I was discussing earlier - how fortuitous that solution would materialize just when, wow. Open but powerful progressive wave, NJ model low... One probably in throws of bombogenecide of SNE at 120 hours but .. .not much skill and I have bothered to monitor this model's handling of major events this season and I'm frankly unimpressed - That said, it's a wonderful example - That solution probably passes beneath 980 mb within two clicks of that 120 hour 987 S of LI ... maybe 978 mb isollobaric power cutter for the Cape and James' posting ability .. which, you know .. But, you know... that's probably about 9 hour run with S/S+ and with exceptional 300 mb divergence mechanics offering black-hole's suction difluence over the N arc of that lower developing CCB wind, thunder storms are more likely in that scenario than the one last night. so, lots there to discuss when it's close enough to be worth discussing - lol.. Does anyone want me to start a thread? I will - I think it's a low probability at this point, but it's the only probability - I believe until sometime between the 11 and 15th.

thanks ...but, uh - poetry isn't really my bag? I've tried the readp-in/coffee house frustrated, early adulthood angst scene in my earlier life, but found them to be too loaded with "deep" posers - Not me - I'm an on-the-sleeve blunt prose sort of gent. Though have been told my turns do at times represent that form - it's an accident. So, I'm sure your turns and stanzas there are charming - and perhaps layered in meaning... but other than the imagery, what that is escapes me.

Sort of what it was doing on that run yesterday ... But I looked at the upper air at the time, and it was all slip stream driven by 500 mb...It had like almost no divergence above that level - tossed the notion when I saw that.. Now in this run, it has some 300 mb classical entrance mechanics.. I think an NJ model low has a reasonable shot - by that I mean for D5 - at taking place. Open wave rapid mover that develops earnestly as it squirts underneath us like cheap porn -

It might be worth it to start a thread for this ... I mentioned last night being willing too - but ...heh... Unlike this gig last night, this one on the 8th is less inspiring of confidence to put it nicely. Said thread should have increased font size, bold, and italic slants with an underscore, that reads something like, highly sensitive and only threaded out because it's the only other thing beyond Friday's triple point fropa to really be specific about Do we think the we can handle it lol

This is what I was looking for, yesterday ...wrt to those bigger bomb/unlikely hallucination runs ... They were lacking that upper air divergence mechanics ... That there is an intense mid-stream relay to eventual a right entrance accelerating wind field ... above the 500 mb forcing/UVM. But this is also the sort of detail that really doesn't get confident in guidance until that 4 day window... Need maybe Thursday, and/or better ensemble support - some cross guidance nods would be nice too...